Tuesday, May 11, 2010
BAD MOON RISING
HOUSING STILL A DRAG ON ECONOMY AND JOBS @ Wall STREET JOURNAL
BEIJING (AP) -- China's inflation accelerated in April, triggering a selloff in Chinese stocks Tuesday on fears of overheating and a possible credit clampdown by Beijing that might slow the country's economic recovery.
SSEC fell another 2% overnight, now IMHO in a full blown Bear MKT!
Slack in production and a HUGE labor pool, add to worries about deflation.
Consumers roll in GDP is now at record high of 70% (consumption) of GDP highest in the civilized world.
Duration of unemployment still stands at RECORD HIGHS. Wages still deflating, a trend in place since 2007.
Though we have growth vs contraction, a recovery of sorts, it will stand as little comfort for the 8 MILLION plus needing work.
Just as here, the onerous mistakes and debts of the players got foisted onto the public, now so in Europe too. Those responsable not held accountable.
Are we not surely headed for policies that will curb investor enthusiasm here in attempt to slow fiscal deficits? Including contraction of gov and higher taxes?
Surging US $ will not benefit multi national companies, as it collapsing $.
Housing prices still deflating. Bank earnings misrepresented and a BIG PART of surging SPX profit picture, that is all VERY suspect IMHO.
Worrisome is the fact that Corporate pricing power has now fallen to a 6 decade low! more signs of deflation pressures.
When you add in the "shadow" inventory of foreclosed and unsold homes you get a grim picture of a housing market, the MAIN DRIVER of our economy may be in a long term declining trend and take a decade to correct the previous excesses.
I think the notion of a V SHAPED recovery is ludicrous.
BEIJING (AP) -- China's inflation accelerated in April, triggering a selloff in Chinese stocks Tuesday on fears of overheating and a possible credit clampdown by Beijing that might slow the country's economic recovery.
SSEC fell another 2% overnight, now IMHO in a full blown Bear MKT!
Slack in production and a HUGE labor pool, add to worries about deflation.
Consumers roll in GDP is now at record high of 70% (consumption) of GDP highest in the civilized world.
Duration of unemployment still stands at RECORD HIGHS. Wages still deflating, a trend in place since 2007.
Though we have growth vs contraction, a recovery of sorts, it will stand as little comfort for the 8 MILLION plus needing work.
Just as here, the onerous mistakes and debts of the players got foisted onto the public, now so in Europe too. Those responsable not held accountable.
Are we not surely headed for policies that will curb investor enthusiasm here in attempt to slow fiscal deficits? Including contraction of gov and higher taxes?
Surging US $ will not benefit multi national companies, as it collapsing $.
Housing prices still deflating. Bank earnings misrepresented and a BIG PART of surging SPX profit picture, that is all VERY suspect IMHO.
Worrisome is the fact that Corporate pricing power has now fallen to a 6 decade low! more signs of deflation pressures.
When you add in the "shadow" inventory of foreclosed and unsold homes you get a grim picture of a housing market, the MAIN DRIVER of our economy may be in a long term declining trend and take a decade to correct the previous excesses.
I think the notion of a V SHAPED recovery is ludicrous.
Monday, May 10, 2010
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES
Intersting price has consolidated UNDER the 50EMA here in my 60M chart. Flat to declining MA's tend not to be a ssupportive as when rising.
Where to now? I'd like to know if today was a 90% UPSIDE day, it probably was....I will get that info later tonight.
ALL the FED and GOV programs did not stop the pain in 2008 until the GAO suspended "mark to market" accounting...allowing banks to tell us what is the value of their holdings.
European Central Banks cobbled together a nice bailout package, so, well we told you not to worry....we can just keep doing this.....print to prosperity......bail to economic expansion.
My guess there will be no lingering maladjustments or consequences for make believe economic policy.
WILL CHINA get off mat tonight? I would have to think so, if it doesn't....to me that isn't sending a jolly message of glee and thanks.
D
UPSIDE EXPLOSION
AN ECB $1 TRILLION fund is now available for, you guessed it BAILOUT not companies or banks but whole countries, how splendid!
Understand this, anyone tapping this money will be FORCED to invoke STIFF austerity measures, the kind that has caused RIOTS in Greece....but basically these countries are bankrupt.
I told you oversold was going to get corrected....and how with futures pointing to a PLUS 50 ZUTZ on the SPX, I have never seen that number before....more strange happenings in the supposed free market system.
Will this be enough to show, don't mess with the Zohan of market manipulators? tune in.
ONE point I noticed, CHINESE stocks were limited to a mere 10 point gain...so odd....
ZILLOW.COM just released housing data,,,,,,23% of homeowners are "UNDERWATER" upside down in their homes! and home values slipped another 3% plus
Add to that what we do know now, MANY have stopped paying and are walking away from homes.....many staying FOR FREE paying nothing until bank forecloses.....and this has freed BILLIONS into consumer spending...how clever.
But the BANKSTERS don't seem to have to account for the drop in valuations! how convienent.....crisis over?
D
Understand this, anyone tapping this money will be FORCED to invoke STIFF austerity measures, the kind that has caused RIOTS in Greece....but basically these countries are bankrupt.
I told you oversold was going to get corrected....and how with futures pointing to a PLUS 50 ZUTZ on the SPX, I have never seen that number before....more strange happenings in the supposed free market system.
Will this be enough to show, don't mess with the Zohan of market manipulators? tune in.
ONE point I noticed, CHINESE stocks were limited to a mere 10 point gain...so odd....
ZILLOW.COM just released housing data,,,,,,23% of homeowners are "UNDERWATER" upside down in their homes! and home values slipped another 3% plus
Add to that what we do know now, MANY have stopped paying and are walking away from homes.....many staying FOR FREE paying nothing until bank forecloses.....and this has freed BILLIONS into consumer spending...how clever.
But the BANKSTERS don't seem to have to account for the drop in valuations! how convienent.....crisis over?
D
Sunday, May 09, 2010
STRATEGIC DEFAULT
youwalkaway.com (shut down?) shows homeowners how to walk away from underwater mortgage (as shown on 60 minutes)
So it may be true the RISE in consumer spending is in large part aided by strategic defaults....they then live in house rent/mortgage free until bank gets around to evicting.....is this great or what?
And what value do the banks show on their books? $300K mortgage or underwater price of maybe half that? QUITE A RACKET, you try that kind of math and you're in jail
THAT kind of math sanctioned by our gov, helped get banksters near record bonuses
D
JIGGY MONDAY
SPX futures currently up 18 plus, so gaming for that Monday rally seems to be a good offense!
They will tell you in the headlines why, of course it is only in reaction to recent string of 90% down days.....see where it carries and if any teeth.
60 MINUTES next segment is on foreclosures. Interviewed is one couple who COULD make payments but WONT because they are upside down in their mortgage by maybe 50%!....so they walk away.
You still think the banks are racking up huge profits?
D
They will tell you in the headlines why, of course it is only in reaction to recent string of 90% down days.....see where it carries and if any teeth.
60 MINUTES next segment is on foreclosures. Interviewed is one couple who COULD make payments but WONT because they are upside down in their mortgage by maybe 50%!....so they walk away.
You still think the banks are racking up huge profits?
D
Saturday, May 08, 2010
REQUIRED WEEKEND READ
Liquidationist: Revisited by Doug NOlan
"Throwing Trillions at a highly-speculative and dysfunctional global financial “system” has begun to present itself somewhat as a more conspicuous failure."
STOCKS SET TO REBOUND
Time to get bearish usually isn't AFTER a decline like we have witnessed, it is always a move between extremes, and we've reached an oversold extreme, 4 90% plus downside volume days in last 2 weeks, may have exhausted supply for a period.
Should we get signs of enthusiastic buying, such as a 90% UPSIDE volume day, ST bottom could be in. Shouldn't prices be driven low enough after what we have seen? Playing for our "guaranteed" Monday rally day was not a crazy idea. We also witnessed how in some types of stock movement STOP LOSSES cannot protect you.
It may be now apparent that the EASY money is off the table, and the rally should it go forward now has certain established RESISTANCE areas formed from the decline as well as becoming more a stock pickers market, not a throw a dart market pickers.
I may throw some charts up after a bit, take a look at a few areas.
Welcome to my blog Aaron, my good friends saavy 89 year old father. This guy is amazing!
Expect maybe some weekend news or pre mkt news MOnday in attempt to lift stocks, but you need know little more than when stocks reach extremes,
in this case severely oversold (ON SHORT TERM BASIS)
they will try to rally, in opposite direction.
Seeing 4 such heavy selling days after 14 months of rally is enough for me to signal some change in the market behavior, and the end perhaps of all the boats floating upstream.....let's take it one day at a time.....for sure, the market better rally next week.
Duratek
Should we get signs of enthusiastic buying, such as a 90% UPSIDE volume day, ST bottom could be in. Shouldn't prices be driven low enough after what we have seen? Playing for our "guaranteed" Monday rally day was not a crazy idea. We also witnessed how in some types of stock movement STOP LOSSES cannot protect you.
It may be now apparent that the EASY money is off the table, and the rally should it go forward now has certain established RESISTANCE areas formed from the decline as well as becoming more a stock pickers market, not a throw a dart market pickers.
I may throw some charts up after a bit, take a look at a few areas.
Welcome to my blog Aaron, my good friends saavy 89 year old father. This guy is amazing!
Expect maybe some weekend news or pre mkt news MOnday in attempt to lift stocks, but you need know little more than when stocks reach extremes,
in this case severely oversold (ON SHORT TERM BASIS)
they will try to rally, in opposite direction.
Seeing 4 such heavy selling days after 14 months of rally is enough for me to signal some change in the market behavior, and the end perhaps of all the boats floating upstream.....let's take it one day at a time.....for sure, the market better rally next week.
Duratek
Friday, May 07, 2010
HOT POKER IN THE EYE
A market that is oversold, wounded that can't rally is a market in trouble. WHO KNOWS, maybe all this is to set up a BIG rally on the usual gamed Monday trading day?
Ended right on 1110 an area some thought would be battle. I think some SERIOUS technical damage has been done here. And to rally and sustain a new uptrend will not be impossible, but difficult.
Don't try to ANTICPATE the trend, let it develop and jump on.
The VIX is up to 40, this is bear market readings. Since I don't think we can compare our current environment with 1987 (1980-2000 in general), this mini panic crash IMHO is a warning the Bear Market may indeed be alive, certainly in a secular sense.
Some trusted opinions say, this is just a deviation from the primary trend of market which will resume when this is over.
But I have witnessed 5 down volume trading nows in 2 weeks that were not seen since 2008 Bear market, yesterday was HUGE with a 50% SURGE in volume.
Well, maybe we just trying to shake some weak hands, maybe we're near some selling exhaustion?
I've got to run now, If I get time I will see what my charts may be showing and share as I can.
Some calling for 20% retrace, but if you beleive in FIBS (fibanochi) 50% retarce is also possibe and more....
Now the MSM was nauseatingly talking up the rise to 9.9% in unemployment rate....I could have puked......."this is actually a good sign...means more people moving into job market....."
PLA ease.....55,000 GOV workers hired (great!) 66,000 TEMP census workers...(why even count these?) 130,000 MYSTERY workers added from BLS NET/BIRT _ DEATH MODEL..
Our government can't pay their own way.....but go ahead hire all the unemployed why dont they?
Shit am I cycnical....
Duratek
Ended right on 1110 an area some thought would be battle. I think some SERIOUS technical damage has been done here. And to rally and sustain a new uptrend will not be impossible, but difficult.
Don't try to ANTICPATE the trend, let it develop and jump on.
The VIX is up to 40, this is bear market readings. Since I don't think we can compare our current environment with 1987 (1980-2000 in general), this mini panic crash IMHO is a warning the Bear Market may indeed be alive, certainly in a secular sense.
Some trusted opinions say, this is just a deviation from the primary trend of market which will resume when this is over.
But I have witnessed 5 down volume trading nows in 2 weeks that were not seen since 2008 Bear market, yesterday was HUGE with a 50% SURGE in volume.
Well, maybe we just trying to shake some weak hands, maybe we're near some selling exhaustion?
I've got to run now, If I get time I will see what my charts may be showing and share as I can.
Some calling for 20% retrace, but if you beleive in FIBS (fibanochi) 50% retarce is also possibe and more....
Now the MSM was nauseatingly talking up the rise to 9.9% in unemployment rate....I could have puked......."this is actually a good sign...means more people moving into job market....."
PLA ease.....55,000 GOV workers hired (great!) 66,000 TEMP census workers...(why even count these?) 130,000 MYSTERY workers added from BLS NET/BIRT _ DEATH MODEL..
Our government can't pay their own way.....but go ahead hire all the unemployed why dont they?
Shit am I cycnical....
Duratek
JOBS JOBS JOBBED
BOY, the bobble heads oN CNBC sure like the numbers.....excuse for rate rising to 9.9% unemployed are so many running back into mkt because of the "robust" economy and job growth.
Let's step back, and IMHO let the stock market sort it out. Let all those votes be cast....and who wouldn;t be looking for a rebound from the big oversold daily condition and stomping from yesterday?
Hourly waged down.1%.....real robust....
D
Let's step back, and IMHO let the stock market sort it out. Let all those votes be cast....and who wouldn;t be looking for a rebound from the big oversold daily condition and stomping from yesterday?
Hourly waged down.1%.....real robust....
D
CANARY
I had been warning about the top in CHINESE stocks made since last AUG of 2009, if CHina was leading the reflation brigade, something was wrong.More importantly I spotted this wedge formation and when it broke down over the last week as US stocks went higher I sounded another alarm. Then there was yesterday.......SSEC fell another 50 pts last night with JAPAN falling over 300 almost back to its 200 EMA....just days ago many more cautous gurus were bullish on JAPAN....ouch.
Yesterday was more a WARNING about what has become accepted by the people in power as OK, HFT...black boxes....HUGE too bigger to fail banks and their hedge fund arms sitting behind closed doors playing the market, and thumbing their nose at traditional banking revenue generators....like loaning money into the economy.
Yesterday was more a function of LIQUIDITY (WASN'T ANY) than VOLUME. LACK OF both at top, lack of yesterday....no bids....huge program trading volume equal pain.
Largest point move in history of stock market I think.
SO...one can dismiss it as a one day wonder, go on as if nothing happened.......or wake up and see that something may be horribly wrong.
Unemployment numbers at 8:30
Duratek
Thursday, May 06, 2010
WHAT DRIVES THE MARKET IS NOT HUMAN. PANIC THURS
OK, here is my account of todays trading actionBanksters were robbing each other or EURO margin call?
IT WAs hft traders but most are computer driven trades......this must be stopped!!! LINK TAKES YOU TO kd'S EXPLANATION. NO STOP LOSS WOULD HAVE WORKED HERE...only PAIN . THIS WAS TRUE TERMINATOR TYPE ATTACK
Little guy wasn’t running to the phone or acct….all the market is basically is banksters jobbing each other HFT…maybe they forgot they aren’t always on the same side…..musical chairs ponzitis thumbisasorass.
TODAY PRODUCED A HUGE DOWN VOLUME DAY 95%, and volume SURGED 50% from previous day......now we really sit at ST oversold and it would surprise me if some kind of rally wouldn't try and catch on for a bit.
You connected or doing biz with GOV, A OK......you a small biz man on the street....pucker up
D
MARKET CRASH ALERT
VIX has skyrocketed to 31. this is highly unusual. DOW off 272...many asked me "where's the PPT dude?"
PLUNGER not big enough for this pile of crap......buy low sell high....."castles made of sand, slip into the sea eventually"
More tonight, who else got your back?
D
PLUNGER not big enough for this pile of crap......buy low sell high....."castles made of sand, slip into the sea eventually"
More tonight, who else got your back?
D
US $ has broken out
GOLD however has NOT been moving inversely to the US $ as it has......shining safe haven?
Unempoyment claims hanging HIGH, near levels at the worst after 911 attacks....some recovery
The GOV is supplanting private enterprise....with horrendous implications
D
WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?
Recovery from 2001 downturn including RISING WAGES which fed into rising labor costs.....leading to 2000 TOP you see falling labor costs.....even with stocks up 75% that component has not stabilized.
D
WATCHING VOLATILITY
Tuesday was another 90% down volume day, making 3 since stocks made their rally highs. These 90% aggressive selling days coming so close to a market high suggest at MINIMUM a ST top may be in place, certainly for any rally resistance levels and the long awaited correction is here.We have not seen selling like this since 2008 in the thick of the 2007-2009 Bear Market. To have selling like this in a BULL MKT is highly unusual. Investors vote with their feet, is why I watch the trend of the VIX for CLUES.
It is typical after one of these intense selling days for the market to embark on a week long rally attempt, when it cannot muster much that is basically telling us prices have not retreated enough to entice bargain hunters.
My charts have been right on the money. Later today I will update CHINESE MKT, I had showed wedge formation and last night it continued to break down, even more aggresively. CHinese stocks had topped back in AUGUST of 2009 ! It was said China led the "REFLATION" attempts and fueled world demad for things, commodities.....so a berakdown in their markets is of concern to me.
AM labor data today.
D
SHORT TERM GAME PLAN
>>>New research from the Univ. of Colorado, Denver shows major job cuts don't guarantee prosperity down the line but, in fact, lead to lower profits and stock returns.
"Those who cut deepest, relative to industry peers, delivered smaller profits and weaker stock returns for as long as nine years after a recession," the WSJ reports, citing a study by Univ. of Colorado business professor Wayne Cascio. He studied how companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index have performed during and after recessions over an 18 year period.
Why?
"Those who cut deepest, relative to industry peers, delivered smaller profits and weaker stock returns for as long as nine years after a recession," the WSJ reports, citing a study by Univ. of Colorado business professor Wayne Cascio. He studied how companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index have performed during and after recessions over an 18 year period.
Why?
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