Friday, May 07, 2010


A market that is oversold, wounded that can't rally is a market in trouble. WHO KNOWS, maybe all this is to set up a BIG rally on the usual gamed Monday trading day?

Ended right on 1110 an area some thought would be battle. I think some SERIOUS technical damage has been done here. And to rally and sustain a new uptrend will not be impossible, but difficult.

Don't try to ANTICPATE the trend, let it develop and jump on.

The VIX is up to 40, this is bear market readings. Since I don't think we can compare our current environment with 1987 (1980-2000 in general), this mini panic crash IMHO is a warning the Bear Market may indeed be alive, certainly in a secular sense.

Some trusted opinions say, this is just a deviation from the primary trend of market which will resume when this is over.

But I have witnessed 5 down volume trading nows in 2 weeks that were not seen since 2008 Bear market, yesterday was HUGE with a 50% SURGE in volume.

Well, maybe we just trying to shake some weak hands, maybe we're near some selling exhaustion?

I've got to run now, If I get time I will see what my charts may be showing and share as I can.

Some calling for 20% retrace, but if you beleive in FIBS (fibanochi) 50% retarce is also possibe and more....

Now the MSM was nauseatingly talking up the rise to 9.9% in unemployment rate....I could have puked......."this is actually a good sign...means more people moving into job market....."

PLA ease.....55,000 GOV workers hired (great!) 66,000 TEMP census workers...(why even count these?) 130,000 MYSTERY workers added from BLS NET/BIRT _ DEATH MODEL..

Our government can't pay their own way.....but go ahead hire all the unemployed why dont they?

Shit am I cycnical....



Anonymous said...

I saw Kudlow and Cramer yesterday discussing the computer fat finger glitch they claim caused all this and Kudlow actually was wondering out load if Exchange computers had been hacked. That is the insanity of the MSM.

Regarding world markets I see where some have reverted to their 2008 lows. Typically some markets lead and others follow. Could we be setting up to revisit those lows? We will see.

Duratek said...

"it's time in the mkt, not timing the mkt" they like to say.
Corrections in primary uptrends are normal. Is the recovery over after 14 months?
I think we got very little to show for all the money thrown at it. I'm not sure if extreme caution isn't justified.
Gross majority at 4% yields said bonds were dead, yield fell below 3.4%!
No crystal ball. Vix 40 is smack in face, but it might also set tbl for some kind of rally to relieve oversold.
I will trust my charts, Nd turn off Msm

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