See comments on chart, this is one I am monitoring. Normally you wouldn't find PRICE much above the 50 WEEK during a bear, once this thing got going it didn't, same for 2000-2003....until the bear was over. THEN you get the 20 week rising thru a rising 50 week....then you have undisputed BULL MKT in my book and a buy the dip mentality until the bull is dead.
The stock market is an amazing creature has fascinated me for years, and it isnt one that many ever figure out. I know this much, I have avoided HUGE losses during the bear markets, my main goal has been to stay liquid, and because of historical intervention, this BEAR will be one of a SECULAR nature.
And let me add this, Consumer sentiment even from a historical low level tunred down again last report, data points to particularly lows results when asking if major purchases for home, car of appliance was asked
CAN the GOV spending replace the Consumer.....and we call it recovery? Things are SO screwed, there is RAMPANT manipulation, trading by big brothers in front of everyone else, LAX accounting standards skewing bank results, contracting still levels of consumer borrowing and bank lending, stricter loan standards making it harder to get loans, lines of CREDIT being CUT to businesses.....a lot doesn't add up here folks. In 2001 when FED took rates to 1% and held it, the autos and homes were not goosed yet, it had been TECH GLUT and bubble...but we still had HOUSING and AUTOS to goose and boy did they.....what goose we got now?...Gov spending? oh boy!
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2 comments:
Visually speaking from looking at this chart a downturn could begin very soon. If this were a betting pool I would buy all the squares between 8/14 and 9/7 for the turn down.
Well, we consolidated and broke out, but all this time the VIX decided to reclaim the spot above downtrend line! A break above 200 EMA near 27 and hold might signal at least a correction of some size....I am expecting talk of OCT being OCT but if we hear more recovery squeak, oct may be oct.
Bulls have momo, that I respect...sellers will need to be ready to fight....GOV and FED cant afford to let this rally fail my friend....but I'll be damn if I see any BIZ improvement..
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