TALE #2 BEAR MARKET BOTTOM?

Tale #2 (click to enlarge of course)

NO TEST OF BOTTOM, we got a V shaped move suggesting perhaps a V shaped economic revival that few were anticipating, bulls are on fire.

How does today differ from 2000 Bear Market? WHAT FUEL do we have to FEED the bull, the NEW economy?

This time unemployment near HISTORIC levels, we havent even fallen (all are crowing the improvement) back to the worst it was during previous Recession. We have lost maybe 6-7 MILLION JOBS.

We do not have homes as ATM machines this time around, so there isn't $1Trillion to pull from there to WICK economy.

The GOV is now doing the spending for us, and deficits near $200B a month MUST be financed.

Banking lending standards instead of lending to anyone who could sign an X, have batten down the hatches and have TIGHTENED CREDIT. (pssssssstttt economy thrives on EXPANDING CREDIT.

Banks were HEALTHY in 2002, now many are GONE phttttt, and the ones left are NOT SOLVENT (pssssttt they dont want you 2 know this)

ONLY an accounting change and access to inside th ebeltway info has poured in trading profits, but the accounting change has allowed BAnks to carry the KRAPPY PAPER as if it was worth 90% of ORIG VALUE!>?????????????? WTF you say?

SO even the earnings here are TAINTED SLUG. A LIE

Unemployment is UNDER REPORTED, we are near 16% under employed this go round one of the WORST U6 data in History, only one worse.

NO uptick in manuf capacity, it sits at record lows, SLACK in capacity does NOT lead to pricing POWER = drag on profits.

6 million not around to spend like drunken sailors, State budgets are making them cut workers.

Challenger and Christmans and Trim Tabs both REFUTE evidence of the BLS data most Lemmings and Sheeple are fed....no one will listen (SEE MY VIDEO)

STimulus is giving some a boost, some inventory building may lead to an upside surprise in GDP again take with grain of salt THEY SEASONALLY ADJUST EVERYTHING it cant be trusted.

TRIM TABS IS REAL DEAL. ALSO check SHADOW STATS I posted.

BDI is NOT taking off, as stocks have risen it has begun to fall, not a good sign. (look it up if you dont know what BDI is)

RAIL tonnage does not suggest robust recovery.

THERE IS NO HOUSING BOOM to goose and all its trickle down. MOST landscape for banking has changed....only the insider chosen few look good.

We're not through thisyet, ALT A loans, adj mortgages and Commercial Real Estate are all LOOMING.

With every report and political chortle of improving econmy the pressure on long term rates grows.......THE SHELL GAME FOLKS ANOTHER PONZI MOVE.

You think you take us to the brink, and you take us to TOTAL CREDIT MKT DEBT as % of GDP to 350% and we V shape? (265% in 1929 !)

WE don't have Consumer FUEL to stoke this fire so what we figure GOV and FED and GS keep this going? F!!!!

NO fricken way we get off this easy, JMHO From where I sit, I have outlined my logical argument, think about it, if you have a view back it up...I did.

There is NO right opinion, I just have mine and it makes sense to me. PILING ON GOV DEBT and not healing from orig wound, letting GS rule the world.....another fine mess, EVENTUALLY will be dealth with....I cannot speculate how far mkt goes....I just dont like the underpinnings of it as I laid out besides it is selling for 24X (plus) SPX earnings and a SCANT BUBBLE TOPPISH 2.75% DIVIDEND YIELD...folks...too rich for me, buying because prices go up (if not in early) not my game

D