You don't know when the market has topped until you see it in rear view mirror. There IS reason for caution IMHO but it is hard to say "bears have seized the day" I don't see it that way right now.
We do have a real change in sentiment from the March lows, now AAII Poll has 51% Bulls only 20% bears similar to 2007 top. Other data are leaning to one sided show, which usually means trouble ahead.
Tomorrow begins Sept trading, after labor Day volume SHOULD pick up, volatility is holding its support weekly trend line.
I see valuations as RICH, SPX dividend yield now down to 2.1% (per big charts) and this is NOT bullish, BOND YIELDS say caution or is that FED monitizing?
I think the hope is that worst is over, Banks are fixed, Consumer will come back, and I see things are f'd up and Consumer is hurting and its not biz as usual.
Duratek
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September will be a very volatile month. If the volatility causes the market to rise then that will make just a higher lever to fall from. The higher we go the more panic will set in once the rose colored glasses come off this month.
The FED has been buying time and that time is running out.
The insiders are selling in huge volume (see url below). Why?
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-28-2009/0005084471&EDATE=
The "China growth engine" has already topped and come down very fast. Check the Shang-Highed index for verification and start planning for likewise in the US markets.
If the PPT manages to get into 2010 without a major correction then the damage will be worse. Like an Army completely out running their supply lines into the enemy's stronghold only to find their supply lines are no where to be seen.
Think WWII Germany invading Stalingrad.
MKT is up 50% but estimates for SPX earnings are down some 45% just from Sept of 2008. I think stocks may have bottomed in March, but I feel stocks are EXPENSIVE here.
How can consumer spending and ability to take on more debt return before jobs do?
D
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