Thursday, August 27, 2009

MARKET WRAP AIG STUNNING REVERSAL

AIG shares soar as Greenberg set to help new CEO- AP ended today above $48 !
Helping Hand AIG TIMELINE

The bailout of AIG has gotten bigger, and taxpayers have taken on more risk:
Sept. 16: The government extends AIG a two-year loan of up to $85 billion, and gets a 79.9% stake in return.

Oct. 8: Bailout loans increase to nearly $123 billion due to problems in AIG's securities-lending program.

Nov. 9: The rescue package increases to $150 billion, including a new $40 billion federal investment.

March 1: The government makes $30 billion in TARP money available
"Putting the reverse split aside, and while that is a zero sum game it might have drawn in more of the big money traders that don’t like, or a restricted from trading in single digit stocks, the soaring of AIG shares is nothing short of spectacular. Today’s 25% gain to $48 puts the stock up some 550% in the past two months. "
"Winners?
One would think that such a huge run would be applauded, but as mentioned above, there are no real investors, AIG. Yes, there is broad ownership via the government’s stake but how and when any monetary recovery will be distributed is dubious and doubtful.Right now the biggest winner seems to be Hank Greenberg. Suddenly lionized, the disgraced patriarch is the being mentioned as the best man to be able to regain control of the financial Frankenstein he created."
What more can I say....sheeessh. BOY IT'S LIKE THE Titanic OUT THERE, BUT INSTEAD OF NOTHING BUT boo hoo grizzley bears we got ourselves jumpin bulls, horns a goring. The sentiment picture is getting EXTREMELY one sided.
From a piece I read from Gluskin and Sheff: (in my words)
We reappointed Bernanke, but he's the same boob that presided over 2 bubbles... and now 2 busts and THAT's A GOOD THING?
Home price UPTICK is making bulls giddy with relief, home prices are down some 30% from highs, taking THOUSANDS under water with it. WE have nearly a ONE YEAR inventory of homes...IMHO keeping pressure on prices for some time.
Consumers are 70% of our economy....so as consumer confidence has risen from the ASHES to reach a recent level of 54, this again is given as reason to celebrate? IN other periods where the SPX has risen like it has we should see sentiment DOUBLE where it is.
If you think the market is always right, then you were buying like mad iN OCT of 2007...
Volume is very weak, AND the usual CAUTION and shrills OF fear "HERE COMES SEPT-OCT" are not but a whisper....
D

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