Thursday, August 13, 2009

ECONOMISTS AGREE "RECESSION IS OVER!"

*But there is a reality that says the housing crisis which helped cause the banking crisis is NOT OVER? WTF???

Foreclosure plague: No cure in July
7:32am: The housing market is still sick, with a record number of foreclosure filings posted last month. More than 87,000 homes were repossessed. More

Another looming housing crisis

Futures show GREEN STRONG OPEN COMING (in most cases the market tends to do opposite of the day of the FED, which was triple digit gain)

Optimism about the economy and Recession are growing, and I heard a group of people swapping stock tips in the gym last night........animal spirits are raunning amuck again?

Old saying "the bust that follows a boom is of equal intensity" and many say history may not repeat exactly but it does repeat.

YEAH, I am sending ALARM bells out to my readers, be very careful now, the market can surely go higher, but what if something finally dispells the myth of a new bull market and boom is coming, or here?

Is is not enough that some losses have been recovered? Will you sit idley by AGAIN should prices skid and the bear resumes, or do you believe the market ? that only higher prices are possible

Nobody finds it interesting that the FED has to buy our Treasury bonds? and our commercial paper? WHY isnt there a normal market for it? WHY pound down interest rates in the most manipulated market in history?

Prices of homes as you can see are STILL DECLINING, foreclosures have slowed down? WHAT ARE earnings if institutions holding mortgage paper or homes (foreclosed) do not recognize MARKET VALUE? You know homes are NOT worth 90% of orig values at their height, but that's what they are doing. And that's why I think the term ZOMBIE banks applies just fine.

SOONER OR LATER we have to DEAL with the mess, papering over it, creating NEW FIAT MONIES to BUY OUR WAY out only denegrates the ones doing it, the bad shit is still sitting on their books or on the FEDS.

IN history, should counnt for something, th egreatest bull markets, when stocks are found at known great values, have been when S and P 500 index dividend yields were close to 6% or HIGHER. MAJOR MARKET TOPS like in 2000 find yields near 3%. WE ARE NOW AT 2.75% !

So even as stocks rise farther, they do so rising away from fair value, and put to risk those buying and HOLDING at ELEVATED values and at SPX above 24X earnings

There are those predicting $72 SPX earnings for 2010, THIS remains to be seen, even if earnings rise, what REALITY and VALIDITY are there when major Banks are allowed to print fictitious earnings based on suspension of mark to market value.

ONE THING FOR SURE, companies pay dividends from REAL EARNINGS, IMHO 2.75% is a PALTRY figure, and one more reminiscnet of a MAJOR TOP then anything resembling a bottom.

If you dont think the game is rigged guess again. THIS WILL turn out to be a game of musical chairs at some point as the veil is lifted and you get to see the man behind the curtain.

Expect more games with bank "earnings" more callas of expansion, hail to the chief and Bernanke, thank g-d for GS.....and the newest internet sensation is a game of grab your ankles.

Duratek

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