Monday, October 19, 2009

EXCITEMENT BUILDING?


APPL tears cover off the iphone, stock up huge AH, should bring about a STRONG OPEN. We do have AM data, at this time it may not matter.


And you wonder why I try to warn against shorting...just because the fundamentals don't match the stock prices? Because maybe it has the one most important thing going...MOMO


Yes I think from most perspectives the stock mkt is VERY expensive, and only offering less than 2% DIvidend yield on the SPX 500, that is rich.


But you don't get in front of a raging train, you either ride it, or wait at the station...you don't stand in front of it.


AAPL is not the economy, and they are beating their competition, so investing in the leading companies can pay off.


NOW, DEAD AHEAD are SPX 1122 ish and DOW 10,300 this is an area I am watching....then I'll decide what to do.
Beating expectations is just a game, you have speculative flow favoring assets, OIL, GOLD...you have a US $ that is getting killed......I think we're setting up for a BOND ACCIDENT.
The situation in the US is dire, the need to finance the debt and deficits, and yet 10 yr barely 3.4% !!
Are you telling me, that the stock market is saying we're IN a V SHAPED RECOVERY, in fact, the move is equal to what a bull might be 3 years IN! just 7 months.....did I misjudge the loss of 7.5 Million jobs? The fact that CREDIT IS CONTRACTING?
Or is a DOA DOLLAR forcing money to flee into almost anything else?
So we get a technical rebound, as thrilling as that may be....and a recovery that bypasses most of main street?
WHat changed from march until now? The more than DOUBLING of all known $'s in existance, but if you are conservative and have any savings? you just took a haircut.
You do realize there is basically NO secondary market fo credit. That almost ALL mortgages now come directly from the GSE's or are guaranteed by the gov.
WHEN will all this "good" news get priced in? stay tuned
Duratek

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