SECULAR TRENDS

Written in 2005 ZEAL Intelligence correctly focused on the metals and what it takes to reach a SECULAR BEAR BOTTOM LINK HERE

TIM WOOD explains his interpretation of a Secular Trend in terms of Dow Theory
http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

We know at MArch bottom PE's were said to be @ 24 and Dividend yields near 3.5% at the historical references of IMPORTANT BOTTOMS would be close to SINGLE DIGIT PE ratios (SPX) and near 6% yields (currently BELOW 2% !)

Though the rallies that seperate the different phases of the secular bear can be impressive, and maybe even have longer to run, the evidence IMHO is clear we haven't reached the bottom.

The fact we fell below the previous BEAR LOWS in 2002 suggests it is not over. Maybe AMZN is a clear winner here, it took them nearly 10 years to best previous highs, but when you factor in the $ value then and now that wouldn't be the case.

LTBH rarely works when in a long term (SECULAR) Bearish trend. Sometime in 2010 it is reported that potentially 40% of homeowners will owe than their houses are worth!

With unemployment REPORTED at near 10%, wages stagnant, and a few essentials to living costing more, with loans at banks receding, lending standards tightening, Government intervention growing, access to credit to small businesses dwindling, an economy like a crack addict to STIMULUS, in a Consumer driven economy, I find the chances to be slim that current valuations are substantiated.

NABE report shows some improvement link here albeit from historical lows of 6% to 12%.

NOT LIVING WITHIN ITS MEANS, we couldn't run our homes like this. We are at mercy of others, if we aren't buying our OWN debt LINK HERE debt ceiling approaching

Duratek