Tuesday, March 01, 2011

MAKING A MOUNTAIN OUT OF A MOLEHILL?


Velocity of money has shown a dramatic slowing and contraction, see how it differs from 1980's to 2000 expansion? Normal expansion show a burst upwards of money changing hands, NOT SO THIS TIME



Expanding Household debt IS/WAS the engine that runs the US economy. In the most basic, simplistic of terms, when credit/debt is expanding you get economic growth, when the same is CONTRACTING (it isn't?) you get economic stagnation , Recession or worse.....in the pure meaning of what Kondratief seasons describe, we have entered the K WINTER and no man or policy can change the course of this force....delay it they obviously have, make it worse, maybe they did....KILL IT? NO




You can listen to all of those experts, govt and FED officials, the Kudlows and Cramers, the Hairs...but basically you only have to use your eyes, and your head.




I have shown charts of outstanding bank loans contracting, and Household credit contracting.....how does that EQUATE to a 100% stock market rally saying we have a V-SHAPED recovery and EXPANSION?




How do they mesh with fact that jobs are not being created, they are being extinguished? You know who has stepped in here don't you? GOV'T DEBT is said to be in neighborhood of $50 TRILLION to $75 TRILLION, and deficits are now equal to a years worth of GDP.




The GOV'T and FED again are trying to delay, avoid the resetting, re balancing and re birthing of the economy and mechanics that usually would take care of these things are being thrown out the window and under the bus...there is no FREE MARKET SYSTEM HERE IN PLAY...just manipulation and attempt to fool the greater body of people into thinking its under control.




You DON'T need to think "why have they not arrested a single crook?" because they are trying to sweep it all under the rug, forget the past Worldcom and ENRON trials....TOO MANY CONNECTED PEOPLE INVOLVED THIS TIME!




You think the gov't really has new systems and controls over the Financial sector? haaaaa HOW ABOUT THOSE PROMISED DERIVATIVE exposure that keeps track of them and lifts the cover off this trash can? more transparency?




Fed balance sheet grows from $800B of good quality Treasuries to over $2.2 TRILLION of? stuff in 2 years.....GOVT deficits of $1.5 TRILLION a year and they talk about cutting it $100B per year for next 10 like that is a big deal???




Slowing govt spending will slow the economy.




GOVT CPI or almost ANY DATA for that matter is near worthless and can't be trusted...and tells us nothing about today, only yesterday which is gone.




The chart I showed of a falling CPI towards ZERO, that make any sense to you? The quicker money changes hands, the more economic momentum you gain.


The very policies beagn to help housing have been ineffective but have screwed savers and give NO incentive for people to leave deposits at banks which they could use for investment and business growth.


Polcies are fostering US $ weakness and worldwide inflation, especially food and energy.....otherwise maybe companies have weak pricing power and refuse to hire...skyrocketing health care costs are not contained and consume those who must buy it.


We are evermore dependant on Consumer Spending, and it seems to me, with a newly minted 6-8 MILLION looking for work, many accepting jobs at much lower pay (Businessweek story), how can they continue to do the heavy lifting?


NOPE, our money went for a bailout, the largest transfer of wealth in our history....and no one is being accused of wrong doing......how's that for your have's and have not's?


Duratek

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