BEAR or BULL?

no more sailors lament. (isn't that a CCR song?)

I have written numerously and supplied ALL of the reasons this rally is ending and the next phase of the "going to be UTTERLY destructive" Bear market IS going to assert itself....hey, maybe it is me! but I HAVE to trust myself, second guessing is for losers.

I am in "training" taking it all in.

SMart man follows the 200 SMA without much exception. Smart man watches for ANY crossing of the 50 SMA to the 200 SMA, bevause here we get a glimpse of the broader market traction, THEN all other moves are against the primary trend, IMHO

http://tinyurl.com/7ypo3 What we see here IMHO is proof positive the overiding trend after meanders and FIBS follows the action of the crossover. ALL during bear mkt 50 below 200, rising near end of 2002 into 2003(bear mkt lows) we see 50 up thru the 200 SMA (This is the sign I NOW understand, saw then, NO didn't short some until much after but did not atke that event for what it was...less on learned!

NOW? chart shows what, it shows that ooops, the 50 has come back under the 200...SO? so that is not what I want to see given the history of this action. AS well might I ADD, the 200 SMA is now DECLINING.
Same would go for the SPX and DOW. I beleive what we are midst of is a correction to that prevailing trend until I see otherwise...I wouldn't go near the market long with a ten foot pole.

INteresting how we begin th eweek of OCT with a CRISIS pumping by FED of $40 BILLION!!! when for last 10 weeks the money supply has been evaporating.

Is it the election? is it the OCT hijinx, is it because of SPIKE in OIL prices? it sure as hell isn't from investment.

ADD to that levels of complacency (and I don;t care what level CPC is) as shown by VIX VXI VXN and SPX/VXO ratio, it is at EPIC levels....surely, should I decide to come out of my bear shell, I would like to see MORE of the REAL stuff bull markets are made of....what we now have IMHO is the ANTITHESIS ofa bull market...turned upside down in every way.

With NO savings, consumers perpetuate spending NOT with wage gains or savings but from CREDIT/DEBT, already at EPIC historical proportions.
WHat effect would a higher Chinese currency have on us? People keep pushing for it because it should help our manufacturing compete better but at WHAT price to our currency? You should know that answer, when foreign goods RISE dramatically from this potential action....Deflation might be the furthest thing from our minds as everything we buy goes up.
ARE we in the sweet spot economically where deflation and inflation are benign? I think we are at precipice ofone or the other.

Stock OPTIONS? more FAKE profits reported....earnings are MUCH less than reported.
NO typical bear market lows in valuation nor SPX PE have been made....now if this held true for EVERY OTHER bear market, is that NOT an issue now?
They call it history for a good reason and don;t we use it to learn from it?
WELL, investors have neither learned from 100 years of market action, nor the last bear market damage which seems so far ago....yet was put off my CRISIS FED and Bush stimulus action which almost all has waned now.

YET, we find ourselves with WEAK job creation, help wanted index, and all other indicators you wish to look at we have the WEAKEST recovery from a recession in history.....AUTO's and HOUSING got us to here, is there STILL milage left there to stimulate? isn't it more likely we have BORROWED from future growth and when we fall next time, NOT a speck of pent up demand.

Also add to everything a historic non-confirmation (4th) between Dow Transports (new highs) and the DOW (no new highs this year) it could spell trouble.

Remember what I write is JUST my opinion, always consult with professional advisor, and I reccomend no specific action, my aim is to stimulate others to think. I have sometimes found the hard way shorting can be dangerous, only the hardened traders do it, sometimes stepping aside could be appropriate action.

NO, I have not been able to peg the turn, but my point of view and facts remain the same.

Duratek