Thursday, October 28, 2004

FSO MArket wrap and SIGNS

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

The thing I harp about (long term and short term) is total crditmarket debt, another chart of such offered at fSO.I don't know where TOP is of credit expansion, but I do know every DAY it goes higher it sets NEW records as % of GDP!!I also know that broad money supply as measured by M3 FELL $79BILLION last 2 weeks....it has been in leveling off falling trend formore than 2 months now.....when this happens in the past the economy weakens in the near future.

Now, I do not know whay this stock does or why the index rises whenyou think it shouldn't yada yada....I like COLD hard facts...money supply rises...so usually do economy and stocks. If adding $40 Billion in a week for money supply has beencalled "crisis" levels....what is a decline of $79 B in 2 weeks saying?

A SERIOUS low is put in DOW, then 2 days later....the bulls aredancing in the streets? NO, we haven't seen bear really get going yet again.....when I haven't a clue of certainty, but if DOW THEORY says the low comeswhen valuations BELOW KNOWN VALUES (1 X book or LESS!) and we knowlast 3 bear market BOTTOMED at around 6% dividend yields and 8-13 XSPX....what is THIS?Have another HARD look at the credit debt chart.....boggles the minddoesn't it, now let them explain it away.

EVERYTHING goes in CYCLES....LOOK at 1929-30 PEAK in that chart, lookat bottoming phase...how long it took, then LOOK WHEN the trend beganto rise (beginning of LAST great BULL MKT) and rest you weary eyes onwhere we are NOW!I am a man who uses observation to help me think....this cannot endgood.....when the CONTRACTION BEGINS....is the declining money supplya SIGN? and who else is talking about it?Perched atop a precipice?

http://tinyurl.com/3l9ds BULL MARKETSBEGIN....well, not at 2000 TOP levels here.http://tinyurl.com/3w7gg BULL MKT...period to period higher highs. WE NOW HAVE lower highs and lows as the trend.

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/vel-gdp-per-m3 ZOOM ZOOM, Velocity of money is how fast it changes hands in the economyrising velocity healthy...WHAT do you see? AFTER RECORD PUMPING and stimulus?In less than 10 years we have more than DOUBLED the money stock.The store next to where we had dinner tonight sold shoes...signread...."made in USA"....no customers....and you know what...nobody gives a hoot!Remember all those TV ads suggesting patriotism in BUYINGAMERICAN...what happened?Something is VERY wrong folks....I think gum and string is all thatis holding it up!
D

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