Monday, July 20, 2009

2002-2003 BEAR LOW AND NEW BULL


Sometimes it DOES NOT pay to stay pessimistic and in denial of new trend. Our bounce does not look like this. Nor does it have volume or buying enthusiasm found at bear lows. Nor does it have the valuations or dividend yields found at major bear lows.
Did the FED and GOV buy us a cyclical Bull? My opinion is not important, the votes of the shares are. IMHO I interpret this move as a bear rally, and the lows still to be tested. I think odds favor no new lows this go around, the sellers would have to step up.
With VIX 80's already posted, some bottoming data is already HERE. I choose not to chase this rally, but that's me
When confronted with a situation not seen or observed in most people's lifetimes, I will not rush into judgement when I see no tangible eveidence we're out of the woods.
Poster left comment..."Banks earnings are improving" this they must have read or heard on CNBC type slant, when we know earnings are up because MArk To MArket was dropped and B because 3 of the top banks are GONE, so GS and JPM reap from lack of comp.....
D

No comments: