Our economy relies HEAVILY on Consumer Spending, hopes for revival hinge on expanding Consumer Spending. We have record continuing claims, we have the most unemployed in most of ours lifetimes, as bad as 9.5% IS, this figure is being UNDEREPORTED.
GOBS of workers are on reduced hour shifts, 30-32 hours per week. Many have excepted lower paying jops, like from a house framer to a dishwasher to try and provide for family.
If even if using provided BLS stats, how do 6.5 million LESS workers do the job of SPENDING for the rest?
EST for 2009 SPX profits are around $55 if you use a 16 multiple you get SPX 500 value target near 880, this is a rich valuation, are earnings REALLY $55?
If you use ametric found at every MAJOR BEar Market bottom you take SPX 209 earnings X 9 or a single digit PE ratio, you get SPX 495 as the bottom.
Also SPX dividend yields avg over 6%, we are about half of that.
MAJORITY of Consumer spending came from HOME EQUITY LOANS, will it now?
SO QUICKLY we can revert to a BULLISH SENTIMENT, and make the news or data fit that wish, doesn't make it so.
FORECLOSURES are STILL RISING, and now unemployment is the main cause not subprime slime. ALT A loans and COMMERCIAL loans defaults NOT being discussed.
If home prices are still falling, and foeclosures still RISING, how can BANK earnings be on the MEND? WHAT IS BEING REPORTED IS PURE FICTION, IMHO!
Watch out for strengthening US $. I am unsure of how far this rally can take us, I am sure we are still in a SECULAR BEAR MKT and will be until we get a technical signal it is over.
D
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2 comments:
HOW do you factor in those that are not eligible any longer to collect? that has to be considered during a protracted event, yes?
Not if you're trying to convince poeple of green shoots.
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