You don't know when the market has topped until you see it in rear view mirror. There IS reason for caution IMHO but it is hard to say "bears have seized the day" I don't see it that way right now.
We do have a real change in sentiment from the March lows, now AAII Poll has 51% Bulls only 20% bears similar to 2007 top. Other data are leaning to one sided show, which usually means trouble ahead.
Tomorrow begins Sept trading, after labor Day volume SHOULD pick up, volatility is holding its support weekly trend line.
I see valuations as RICH, SPX dividend yield now down to 2.1% (per big charts) and this is NOT bullish, BOND YIELDS say caution or is that FED monitizing?
I think the hope is that worst is over, Banks are fixed, Consumer will come back, and I see things are f'd up and Consumer is hurting and its not biz as usual.
Duratek
Monday, August 31, 2009
'BAILING OUT THE TITANIC WITH A THIMBLE"
http://www.eap-journal.com/vol_39_iss_1.php Steve Keen has assembled an excellent writing on what sort of MESS we are in.
>>SCroll to here for PDF*
Bailing out the Titanic with a Thimble
Steve Keen
Pages: 3-24
Abstract: -
Full Text PDF (488KB) <<
Our Gov with HELP from cash for klunkers, STIM of $1T and a FED with ZERO interest rate policy is trying to stem the tide from a problem of indescribale size and scale...like pissing in the wind.
You will see that even DOUBLING the MONEY BASE in 4 months (never before) has not helped raise the most important "VELOCITY" of money, how quickly it changes hands in the economy.
As my last post alluded to what we HAVE accomplished is to BAIL OUT the 5 BANKS which almost single handedly created the toxic swamp, and now they get to rule the world (TOO BIG TO FAIL means we can never hold THEM accountable) and pay themselves MULTI MILLION $$ bonuses...job well done.
Well, that's what you get when you put the FOX IN THE HENHOUSE, and rely on former GS etc associates to create the very solution they helped to bring on! Obviously CHANGE to Obama means bring MORE of these CRONIES on board.
You see, these "EXCESS" deposits in the banking system can just SIT THERE (not getting into economy) and these WHORE BANKS can let the interest paid just pile up.
Imagine this, to REFLATE economy you would have to induce one helluva increase in leveraging (credit/debt) by an already over burdoned populace who is now bent on DELEVERAGING, at the same time BANKS have tightened lending standards.....and we have MULTI MILLIONS with NO JOBS to help us out.
What this means is you can keep hearing the SAVANTS on MSM chant hail to the chief, the FED, they have saved the day, but in reality the DEFLATION is a higher force like a BLACK HOLE which is sucking us all in and escape is not very likely.
The CHINESE stock market was off sharply overnight and has fallen hard the last few weeks, NOT a good sign.
You remember who kept sounding the alarm and who has tried to raise awareness of the extent of the issues facing us, and the morons we have leading us. My large increase in readership may be a clue. I may not be right, but I do seek the truth and understanding.
If knowing the f'ers who got us into this mess, are now AT THE HELM and are enriching themselves as the average person suffers doesn't anger you, nothing will. DO YOU WONDER WHY THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS FIGHTING ANY KIND OF AUDIT?????
DEMAND ACCOUNTABILITY, DEMAND REAL CHANGE!
>>SCroll to here for PDF*
Bailing out the Titanic with a Thimble
Steve Keen
Pages: 3-24
Abstract: -
Full Text PDF (488KB) <<
Our Gov with HELP from cash for klunkers, STIM of $1T and a FED with ZERO interest rate policy is trying to stem the tide from a problem of indescribale size and scale...like pissing in the wind.
You will see that even DOUBLING the MONEY BASE in 4 months (never before) has not helped raise the most important "VELOCITY" of money, how quickly it changes hands in the economy.
As my last post alluded to what we HAVE accomplished is to BAIL OUT the 5 BANKS which almost single handedly created the toxic swamp, and now they get to rule the world (TOO BIG TO FAIL means we can never hold THEM accountable) and pay themselves MULTI MILLION $$ bonuses...job well done.
Well, that's what you get when you put the FOX IN THE HENHOUSE, and rely on former GS etc associates to create the very solution they helped to bring on! Obviously CHANGE to Obama means bring MORE of these CRONIES on board.
You see, these "EXCESS" deposits in the banking system can just SIT THERE (not getting into economy) and these WHORE BANKS can let the interest paid just pile up.
Imagine this, to REFLATE economy you would have to induce one helluva increase in leveraging (credit/debt) by an already over burdoned populace who is now bent on DELEVERAGING, at the same time BANKS have tightened lending standards.....and we have MULTI MILLIONS with NO JOBS to help us out.
What this means is you can keep hearing the SAVANTS on MSM chant hail to the chief, the FED, they have saved the day, but in reality the DEFLATION is a higher force like a BLACK HOLE which is sucking us all in and escape is not very likely.
The CHINESE stock market was off sharply overnight and has fallen hard the last few weeks, NOT a good sign.
You remember who kept sounding the alarm and who has tried to raise awareness of the extent of the issues facing us, and the morons we have leading us. My large increase in readership may be a clue. I may not be right, but I do seek the truth and understanding.
If knowing the f'ers who got us into this mess, are now AT THE HELM and are enriching themselves as the average person suffers doesn't anger you, nothing will. DO YOU WONDER WHY THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS FIGHTING ANY KIND OF AUDIT?????
DEMAND ACCOUNTABILITY, DEMAND REAL CHANGE!
Sunday, August 30, 2009
FINANCIAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
>>>>The "dirty little secret" that Geithner is going to great degrees to obscure from the public is very simple. There are only at most perhaps five US banks that are the source of the toxic poison causing such dislocation in the world financial system. What Geithner is desperately trying to protect is that reality. The heart of the present problem, and the reason ordinary loan losses are not the problem as in prior bank crises, is a variety of exotic financial derivatives, most especially credit default swaps.
In the Bill Clinton administration of 2000, the Treasury secretary was Larry Summers, who had just been promoted from number two under former Goldman Sachs banker Robert Rubin to be number one when Rubin left Washington to take up the post of Citigroup vice chairman.
As I describe in detail in my new book, Power of Money: The Rise and Fall of the American Century, to be released this summer, Summers convinced president Clinton to sign several Republican bills into law that opened the floodgates for banks to abuse their powers. The fact that the Wall Street big banks spent some US$5 billion in lobbying for these changes after 1998 was likely not lost on Clinton. <<<
>>>This is a situation that is deliberately being allowed to run out of (responsible government) control by Treasury Secretary Geithner, Summers and ultimately the president, whether or not he has taken the time to grasp what is at stake. <<
Read entire story at above (red) link.
Friends, we the American people have been SOLD OUT, by first BILL CLINTON (on his last fing day COngress met in a lame duck session passing the WALL STREET GREED BILL which was actually repealing the commodities trading act....in place for almost 100 years) then BUSH....most assuredly that idot savant Greenspan, Giethner, Summers. Bernanke.....the f'ers are the CORE of OBAMA's NEW HOPE?? administration? WTF?
NOTHING has been done to FIX the drivitive mess. NOBODY knows how much is out there, maybe $50 Trillion.....of "BUCKET SHOP" bets.
AIG covered some of those bets....WE the PEOPLE bailed them out for at least $180Billion......Over $2 Trillion and counting the lot of them, the BIG 5 banks all got money...and now they're getting HUGE BONUSES as the AVG JOE is lucky to have a part time job.
These Goldman Sach's and friends Banks sold TOXIC mortgages to us and the WOLRD and banked BILLIONS of profits and bonuses...then HANK PAULSON wrote on a NAPKIN as SEC Treasurer a plan to bail them out and "save the world"....how cool is that?
SO I Guess what we had to do, cause an EX GS guy told us, is leave the landscape so a few banks will rule the financial world....using this CRISIS to make them EVEN STRONGER, giving them access to FED 0% money so they were guaranteed profits....and them letting these crooks keep ON THE BOOKS the toxic crap at 90% on the dollar when they suspended the MARK TO MARKET RULE.....so basically I dont trust any of these banks reported earnings.
A shell game, musical chairs, and the little guy gets screwed again and doesnt even know how or why....he just wants a job.
SO MANY DUPLICITE in the ROBBING, SCREWING of the american public......it
is well SICKENING.
Link to 60 MINUTES FINANCIAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, MUST SEE>
And please don't wonder why I get disgusted.....as the IN CROWD gets away with murder and our money.
D
In the Bill Clinton administration of 2000, the Treasury secretary was Larry Summers, who had just been promoted from number two under former Goldman Sachs banker Robert Rubin to be number one when Rubin left Washington to take up the post of Citigroup vice chairman.
As I describe in detail in my new book, Power of Money: The Rise and Fall of the American Century, to be released this summer, Summers convinced president Clinton to sign several Republican bills into law that opened the floodgates for banks to abuse their powers. The fact that the Wall Street big banks spent some US$5 billion in lobbying for these changes after 1998 was likely not lost on Clinton. <<<
>>>This is a situation that is deliberately being allowed to run out of (responsible government) control by Treasury Secretary Geithner, Summers and ultimately the president, whether or not he has taken the time to grasp what is at stake. <<
Read entire story at above (red) link.
Friends, we the American people have been SOLD OUT, by first BILL CLINTON (on his last fing day COngress met in a lame duck session passing the WALL STREET GREED BILL which was actually repealing the commodities trading act....in place for almost 100 years) then BUSH....most assuredly that idot savant Greenspan, Giethner, Summers. Bernanke.....the f'ers are the CORE of OBAMA's NEW HOPE?? administration? WTF?
NOTHING has been done to FIX the drivitive mess. NOBODY knows how much is out there, maybe $50 Trillion.....of "BUCKET SHOP" bets.
AIG covered some of those bets....WE the PEOPLE bailed them out for at least $180Billion......Over $2 Trillion and counting the lot of them, the BIG 5 banks all got money...and now they're getting HUGE BONUSES as the AVG JOE is lucky to have a part time job.
These Goldman Sach's and friends Banks sold TOXIC mortgages to us and the WOLRD and banked BILLIONS of profits and bonuses...then HANK PAULSON wrote on a NAPKIN as SEC Treasurer a plan to bail them out and "save the world"....how cool is that?
SO I Guess what we had to do, cause an EX GS guy told us, is leave the landscape so a few banks will rule the financial world....using this CRISIS to make them EVEN STRONGER, giving them access to FED 0% money so they were guaranteed profits....and them letting these crooks keep ON THE BOOKS the toxic crap at 90% on the dollar when they suspended the MARK TO MARKET RULE.....so basically I dont trust any of these banks reported earnings.
A shell game, musical chairs, and the little guy gets screwed again and doesnt even know how or why....he just wants a job.
SO MANY DUPLICITE in the ROBBING, SCREWING of the american public......it
is well SICKENING.
Link to 60 MINUTES FINANCIAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, MUST SEE>
And please don't wonder why I get disgusted.....as the IN CROWD gets away with murder and our money.
D
Saturday, August 29, 2009
WEEKEND ROMP "SIDEWAYS INTO SEPT"
In our Bear market rally interuptus, we have come a long way, up nearly 50%, let that sink in and realize prices are near where they were in 1998, the BEST investment over this time period? GOLD , so stocks for the long term? what is your horizon? are we in SECULAR BEAR? sure seems so to me.
There are valid economic uptick indicators to be sure, but they do not exist without CRUTCH of government and FED life support. Already traffic to dealerships and even those going to EDmonds to investigate a new car are down, we bought ourselves a blip. One in 4 who bought now worry about new debt incurred, GEE we are suffering from debt overload, and what does gov do? goose consumption and debt?
There is marked increase in tech spending, maybe helps productivity down the road, it may also make it harder for those seeking work.
Home prices are off some 30% yet most banks carry mortgages at 90% of face value.
Stocks are pricing in a GDP of around 4%, but if hiring doesn't pick up we will have about 4 million consumers consuming less. Unemployment reports still show levels near 570K per week....this needs to drop below 500K.
Stock by historic standards are extremely expensive showing only a 2.7% yield SPX 500.
IMHO stocks would look MORE appealing around 700-850. I think this sideways action into end of August is also reason for caution, LOW VOLUME has plagued this rally almost since inception, NEW HIGHS have been waning, not what you expect from NEW BULL MKT.
My charts show the V bounce we have so far without ANY TEST of the lows.....I think its needed.
D
Friday, August 28, 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2009
IS THIS THE SYSTEM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DESERVE?
By Tyler Durden
Created 08/27/2009 - 10:35
>>>And so the guns come out blazing. The Clearing House Association, another name for all the banks that were bailed out over the past year with the generous contributions from all of you, dear taxpayers, are now threatening with another instance of complete systemic collapse if Bloomberg's lawsuit is allowed to proceed unchallenged, let alone if any of the "Audit The Fed"
measures are actually implemented.
As a reminder, The Clearing House Association consists of ABN Amro, Bank Of America, The Bank Of New York, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, US Bank and Wells Fargo.
In a declaration filed in the Bloomberg Case (08-CV-9595, Southern District of New York), the banks demonstrate no shame in attempting to perpetuate the status quo with regard to the Federal Reserve and demand that the wool over the eyes of the general population remain firmly planted in perpetuity. >>>
LINK to story:
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/17838
LINK to filing:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Clearinghouse_Decl.pdf
Created 08/27/2009 - 10:35
>>>And so the guns come out blazing. The Clearing House Association, another name for all the banks that were bailed out over the past year with the generous contributions from all of you, dear taxpayers, are now threatening with another instance of complete systemic collapse if Bloomberg's lawsuit is allowed to proceed unchallenged, let alone if any of the "Audit The Fed"
measures are actually implemented.
As a reminder, The Clearing House Association consists of ABN Amro, Bank Of America, The Bank Of New York, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, US Bank and Wells Fargo.
In a declaration filed in the Bloomberg Case (08-CV-9595, Southern District of New York), the banks demonstrate no shame in attempting to perpetuate the status quo with regard to the Federal Reserve and demand that the wool over the eyes of the general population remain firmly planted in perpetuity. >>>
LINK to story:
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/17838
LINK to filing:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Clearinghouse_Decl.pdf
MARKET WRAP AIG STUNNING REVERSAL
AIG shares soar as Greenberg set to help new CEO- AP ended today above $48 !Helping Hand AIG TIMELINE
The bailout of AIG has gotten bigger, and taxpayers have taken on more risk:
Sept. 16: The government extends AIG a two-year loan of up to $85 billion, and gets a 79.9% stake in return.
Sept. 16: The government extends AIG a two-year loan of up to $85 billion, and gets a 79.9% stake in return.
Oct. 8: Bailout loans increase to nearly $123 billion due to problems in AIG's securities-lending program.
Nov. 9: The rescue package increases to $150 billion, including a new $40 billion federal investment.
March 1: The government makes $30 billion in TARP money available
"Putting the reverse split aside, and while that is a zero sum game it might have drawn in more of the big money traders that don’t like, or a restricted from trading in single digit stocks, the soaring of AIG shares is nothing short of spectacular. Today’s 25% gain to $48 puts the stock up some 550% in the past two months. "
"Winners?
One would think that such a huge run would be applauded, but as mentioned above, there are no real investors, AIG. Yes, there is broad ownership via the government’s stake but how and when any monetary recovery will be distributed is dubious and doubtful.Right now the biggest winner seems to be Hank Greenberg. Suddenly lionized, the disgraced patriarch is the being mentioned as the best man to be able to regain control of the financial Frankenstein he created."
What more can I say....sheeessh. BOY IT'S LIKE THE Titanic OUT THERE, BUT INSTEAD OF NOTHING BUT boo hoo grizzley bears we got ourselves jumpin bulls, horns a goring. The sentiment picture is getting EXTREMELY one sided.
From a piece I read from Gluskin and Sheff: (in my words)
We reappointed Bernanke, but he's the same boob that presided over 2 bubbles... and now 2 busts and THAT's A GOOD THING?
Home price UPTICK is making bulls giddy with relief, home prices are down some 30% from highs, taking THOUSANDS under water with it. WE have nearly a ONE YEAR inventory of homes...IMHO keeping pressure on prices for some time.
Consumers are 70% of our economy....so as consumer confidence has risen from the ASHES to reach a recent level of 54, this again is given as reason to celebrate? IN other periods where the SPX has risen like it has we should see sentiment DOUBLE where it is.
If you think the market is always right, then you were buying like mad iN OCT of 2007...
Volume is very weak, AND the usual CAUTION and shrills OF fear "HERE COMES SEPT-OCT" are not but a whisper....
D
YIKES
Please understand the picture you are seeing, appreciate how much WORSE it is than in 2001, has the economic climate gone past a Recession into something else?
IMHO watch US $$ action and a break one way or a run past 81.00 then rout may be ON.
Listen to the asshole pundits telling you R is over, what actually have the brainiacs in charge done? Bendover Bernanke is in over his head.
D
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
WED WRAP "IN PLAY?"
Update to our weekly chart. I have added a LONGER TERM Head and Shoulders potential that COULD be forming a right shoulder in this area......and may take some time. If valid and broken would portend a VERY serious retreat down the road.
One of my customers is a capital leasing company, he is downsizing to half his size, let 24 people go. The demand for BUSINESS LEASING has "dried up" and he "had to reduce his overhead costs to survive".
I KNOW what THEY are telling you in the MSM, and you know what I'm saying, where I stand.....I'll go along with it if I believe in it. I was all over the 1998 bull bubble, stocks were flying, but I also got out before the carnage.
I flat out sat this rise mostly out, in ALL but 2 accounts, I had said my reason was "to remain liquid".....a business in distress doesn't make one want to take too many chances.
And a bull is a bull for any number of reasons, but even during 1980's bull we had the 1987 crash, 1998 tumble. Businesses were expanding their capex spending.
Today's landscape ain't 1980's, it is going to TAKE TIME TO HEAL, you can have your "seasonably adjusted" data.....I can see for my own 2 eyes.
I believe a correction of some magnatude is brewing here.
Duratek (comments section erdoing with spam, but if you leave a legit comment,I usually repsond)
PICTURE TELLS A STORY?
Highlights (briefing.com)
Durable goods orders surged 4.9% in July, well above the 3.2% increase predicted by the Consensus. However the headline is very misleading.
The Cash for Clunkers stimulus package was not a driver as motor vehicles and parts orders grew 0.9% after declining 0.2% in June.
Instead, the headline growth number was driven by a colossal increase in nondefense aircraft orders, which grew 107.2%. Aircraft orders are generally highly volatile and growth at this level is not sustainable.
Non-residential investment is again trending down as new order for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.3%. A drop in machinery orders by 6.6% offset a gain in communications equipment orders.
Excluding transportation, new orders increased a very modest 0.8%, slightly less than Consensus.
Shipments, which factor into GDP growth, grew at a nice 2.0% pace and help get Q3 GDP growth off to a nice start. Excluding transportation, shipments grew 2.2%.
The inventory contraction remains a problem as inventories fell 0.8% in July.
The Cash for Clunkers stimulus again posted a mild surprise as auto inventories did not pick up. However, this could have resulted from demand for autos outperforming production. The cause of the inventory decline won't be fully known until the industrial production numbers are released next month.
NEW BUBBLE THREATENS A V-SHAPED REBOUND
ANDY XIE
"A pure bubble tied to excess liquidity that affects one or many financial assets cannot last long. Its multiplier effect on the broad economy is limited. It could have a limited impact on consumption due to the wealth effect. As it neither stimulates the supply side nor boosts productivity, whatever story it is based on will have holes that become apparent to speculators. It doesn't take long for them to flee. Furthermore, a pure liquidity bubble without support from productivity can easily lead to inflation, which causes tightening expectations that trigger a bubble's burst.
What we are seeing now in the global economy is a pure liquidity bubble. It's been manifested in several asset classes. The most prominent are commodities, stocks and government bonds."
OIL has jumped from $35 to over $70 even as there is supply GLUT as demand has waned, the price is based purely on liquidity and speculation.
There is an abundance of housing SUPPLY, this will take some time to rectify. I DONT buy into V shaped recovery, nor do I see how 4 million or so less Consumers can pick up the slack in demand.
SO we have FED and GOV trying to stimulate and reflate. Had they just let nature take it's course in 2000, we would not be here in this mess today.
D
"A pure bubble tied to excess liquidity that affects one or many financial assets cannot last long. Its multiplier effect on the broad economy is limited. It could have a limited impact on consumption due to the wealth effect. As it neither stimulates the supply side nor boosts productivity, whatever story it is based on will have holes that become apparent to speculators. It doesn't take long for them to flee. Furthermore, a pure liquidity bubble without support from productivity can easily lead to inflation, which causes tightening expectations that trigger a bubble's burst.
What we are seeing now in the global economy is a pure liquidity bubble. It's been manifested in several asset classes. The most prominent are commodities, stocks and government bonds."
OIL has jumped from $35 to over $70 even as there is supply GLUT as demand has waned, the price is based purely on liquidity and speculation.
There is an abundance of housing SUPPLY, this will take some time to rectify. I DONT buy into V shaped recovery, nor do I see how 4 million or so less Consumers can pick up the slack in demand.
SO we have FED and GOV trying to stimulate and reflate. Had they just let nature take it's course in 2000, we would not be here in this mess today.
D
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
EARLY MARKET WRAP
The market charges on, grossly overbought, grossly overpriced, not the place I want to jump in.
Chart from March shows a "V" shaped rebound, does anyone see or feel a V shaped rebound? DO any data point to such a recovery?
The bottom of March 2009 has not been tested, it is still my hunch it will get tested. IS the recovery for real? Some BDI data may be weak for reasons of more ships coming on board, but not all the weakness can be explained away.
WHY is NAT GAS at a7 YEAR LOW? Business and power plants are #1 consumer of NAT GAS. WHy has the FED balance sheet growth accelerated at same time Bernanke says recovery is here? FED sheet near $2 Trillion now.
How can the Housing market really recovery with such HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT? Houses being sold are the foreclosed kind....
Stocks are eerily following movement of 1929-32 era.....so we are approaching a similar high as in 1930?
If we have recovery, isn't it time to RAISE rates? GOV stimulus and FED monetizing the debt wont take place of Consumer demand LESS MILLIONS unemployed.
Word that comes to mind is LEMMINGS.
VIX still holding its weekly trendline....for now.
ONLY 3% US $$$ BULLS.......
D
Chart from March shows a "V" shaped rebound, does anyone see or feel a V shaped rebound? DO any data point to such a recovery?
The bottom of March 2009 has not been tested, it is still my hunch it will get tested. IS the recovery for real? Some BDI data may be weak for reasons of more ships coming on board, but not all the weakness can be explained away.
WHY is NAT GAS at a7 YEAR LOW? Business and power plants are #1 consumer of NAT GAS. WHy has the FED balance sheet growth accelerated at same time Bernanke says recovery is here? FED sheet near $2 Trillion now.
How can the Housing market really recovery with such HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT? Houses being sold are the foreclosed kind....
Stocks are eerily following movement of 1929-32 era.....so we are approaching a similar high as in 1930?
If we have recovery, isn't it time to RAISE rates? GOV stimulus and FED monetizing the debt wont take place of Consumer demand LESS MILLIONS unemployed.
Word that comes to mind is LEMMINGS.
VIX still holding its weekly trendline....for now.
ONLY 3% US $$$ BULLS.......
D
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE?
Shiller home price index due out at 9 am. Consumer confidence at 10 am, as you can see it sits at historical lows! If we have 70% Consumer economy, what does this suggest?
Big Ben gets another term, whooppieee. Chinese market has run into some stiff wind lately
D
Monday, August 24, 2009
BDI NO LIE
This isn't what happens when you have an expanding economy, this is what happens when shipping tons drop through the floor because demand is not there for finished goods.
You see falling interest rates today, and ask yourself why money is flowing into safe investments....
D
AM POST "I'M BACK"
ADJ MONEY BASE punch bowl leaking?
BDI forming triangle, will break out soon, this is NOT the picture we want to see if economies of world are recovering, also ROC rising with move.
Rally seems intact, but remember going into OPEX FRI I said "too many PUTS" and they would mst likely expire worthless, and they did.
SPX 1050 is are many are watching, VIX holds weekly support, bullishness growing as we approach SEPT, will there be TOO many bets on table for typical SEPT_OCT trouble for market?
D
Monday, August 17, 2009
PISSING IN THE WIND
China to invest in TOXIC TAXPAYER subsidized mortgages ! haaaaaa ONE day Americans will WAKE THE F up.....and realize we are governed by a bunch of assholes! HEY how about Barney Frank for President.....he isn't even a fing dog catcher!
D
D
RED DAWN
If things don't quite turn out like the MSM and pundits have been hyping, remember who kept asking questions and said things don't add up.
Lowes doesn't see turnup, dissapoints. OIL price declines to $66 was in the $70's, near 70% of stock in bullish config per Point and Finger charting.
Well, we already knew market was in need of correction , you saw my long term chart which produced a long term trend line resistance and is where price has turned from recently.
Before declaring patient dead, we need to see the nature of any decline and where it finds support and how intense it is. As thers were giving buy signals galore, I asked WHERE AREZ THE FUNDAMENTALS.....or can the FED and GOV replace the Consumer?
I am OUT OF TOWN sometime Tuesday through SAT or SUNDAY...I will update by one of those days end as I catch up.....recharge battery time
D
Lowes doesn't see turnup, dissapoints. OIL price declines to $66 was in the $70's, near 70% of stock in bullish config per Point and Finger charting.
Well, we already knew market was in need of correction , you saw my long term chart which produced a long term trend line resistance and is where price has turned from recently.
Before declaring patient dead, we need to see the nature of any decline and where it finds support and how intense it is. As thers were giving buy signals galore, I asked WHERE AREZ THE FUNDAMENTALS.....or can the FED and GOV replace the Consumer?
I am OUT OF TOWN sometime Tuesday through SAT or SUNDAY...I will update by one of those days end as I catch up.....recharge battery time
D
Sunday, August 16, 2009
DOUG NOLAND'S LATEST
"REFLATION CONTEMPLATION" scroll to bottom for summary.
Did the rally in 1930 fortell of the "worst is over?" Are we seeing the reversal of OVERLY BEARISH positions feeding this rally which does not measure of up to what the data is telling us?
Should certain data at least hint to a bottoming and reversal of fortunes, I would be more keen on the bullish side. I have been put in a position where I am going against some of my tchnical indicators, I am putting as does Dow Theory VALUE first, friends argue the case for me that stocks are heap? Please read above, Noland states OUR case very well.
D
Did the rally in 1930 fortell of the "worst is over?" Are we seeing the reversal of OVERLY BEARISH positions feeding this rally which does not measure of up to what the data is telling us?
Should certain data at least hint to a bottoming and reversal of fortunes, I would be more keen on the bullish side. I have been put in a position where I am going against some of my tchnical indicators, I am putting as does Dow Theory VALUE first, friends argue the case for me that stocks are heap? Please read above, Noland states OUR case very well.
D
A B C "S
monthly showing ABC FLAT corrections in gold and U S$ and SPX look very sharp and probable. AND should US $ make a move and giddy up (wont it begin to rise with HUGE bearish consortium) then that would also spell big TROUBLE for the stock markets.
This cannot be held in high prob by too many even with autumn approaching, as MANY (even some of us) have signalled NEW BUL MKT, my signals using 50/200 have never taken this long to trip. Guys, what are the chances we just plow ahead and ignore that V bottom and unlike the 2 or 3 stabs for 2003 bottom which left SPX maybe 5% above lows we get none? not one?
I cannot grasp a new bull in context of 2003 scenario compared to now. Unemployment peaked, housing/finance bubble had not begun, so economy was open to huge stimulus and it created record profits, but we know when you hose kerosine on fire you get a bubble, not balanced economy.
Think of the sources for Consumer spedning destroyed, and the walking dead who have NO money and losing homes, the HUGE unemployed not present in 2003. I WANT recovery, my overall scenario and experience does not line up with what the market is telling me.
In 2003 Economic data DID improve, people got hired back to work quickly, but here we are with NUMBERS WEEKLY STILL OVER 500K !!!! in a consumer led economy how does this match up with EXPANSION OF EARNINGS? (GOV and FED have taken place of consumer)
IT DOES NOT.
WE HAVE PHONEY BANK EARNINGS, so even what is already presented is a lie. (suspension of mark to mkt)
Consumer confidence rebounded quickly in 2003, it is still falling now even with huge mkt rally.
And my TA says new bull mkt WTF!!!
This cannot be held in high prob by too many even with autumn approaching, as MANY (even some of us) have signalled NEW BUL MKT, my signals using 50/200 have never taken this long to trip. Guys, what are the chances we just plow ahead and ignore that V bottom and unlike the 2 or 3 stabs for 2003 bottom which left SPX maybe 5% above lows we get none? not one?
I cannot grasp a new bull in context of 2003 scenario compared to now. Unemployment peaked, housing/finance bubble had not begun, so economy was open to huge stimulus and it created record profits, but we know when you hose kerosine on fire you get a bubble, not balanced economy.
Think of the sources for Consumer spedning destroyed, and the walking dead who have NO money and losing homes, the HUGE unemployed not present in 2003. I WANT recovery, my overall scenario and experience does not line up with what the market is telling me.
In 2003 Economic data DID improve, people got hired back to work quickly, but here we are with NUMBERS WEEKLY STILL OVER 500K !!!! in a consumer led economy how does this match up with EXPANSION OF EARNINGS? (GOV and FED have taken place of consumer)
IT DOES NOT.
WE HAVE PHONEY BANK EARNINGS, so even what is already presented is a lie. (suspension of mark to mkt)
Consumer confidence rebounded quickly in 2003, it is still falling now even with huge mkt rally.
And my TA says new bull mkt WTF!!!
Saturday, August 15, 2009
BULL MARKET PER ONE METRIC "THEN AND NOW"
With rising unemployment, data showing falling consumer sentiment, falling shipments via RAIL and CONTAINER SHIP, etc etc....IMHO ITS a BULL on PAPER. When it ends, and found an economy in a death spiral I think next BEar will finish us off. AT SPX 24 X earnings and rising....DIVIDEND YIELD at 2.75%, this is VERY Expensive market and so was MArch bottom.D
NEW BULL MARKET SIGNAL
DECISION POINT
Having some computer issues at home, installing new system early next week....may follow this with chart to help explain.
ALL that intervention had to go somewhere, damn shame not in the REAL economy....I doubt LONG BULL, maybe one of shortest, but powerful. Could run to SPX 1200 as I suggested before, I see the down trendline in previous chart may offer resistance to move, we'll know soon as many see rally continuing next week.
D
Having some computer issues at home, installing new system early next week....may follow this with chart to help explain.
ALL that intervention had to go somewhere, damn shame not in the REAL economy....I doubt LONG BULL, maybe one of shortest, but powerful. Could run to SPX 1200 as I suggested before, I see the down trendline in previous chart may offer resistance to move, we'll know soon as many see rally continuing next week.
D
BUBBLES AND BULLSHIT
DR SCHOON
"when we have CREDIT CONTRACTION.....all hell breaks loose"
FOLKS, stock markets can be manipulated, but we get economic expansion from credit expansion (ABUSE of credit you see we get bubbles).....we are inthe winter hinter now.
D
"when we have CREDIT CONTRACTION.....all hell breaks loose"
FOLKS, stock markets can be manipulated, but we get economic expansion from credit expansion (ABUSE of credit you see we get bubbles).....we are inthe winter hinter now.
D
Friday, August 14, 2009
HERE IS YOUR SURGE THAT ISN'T
WORDS don't bring about economic revival, smaller government and lower taxes do, a free market system does.
Where was the SEC, the FED, the SEC of Treasury while the HOUSING BUBBLE was forming from THEIR POLICIES????
F them all
D
"Greatest Economic Expansion since 1980'S"
Some are calling for the greatest economic expansion since the 1980's. I'm trying to show you what is being said pro or con...
SO we'll surely embark on this episode with the highest level of total credit market debt in the history of the world as % of GDP?
I DO believe we can heal, we can grow, where there is the LURE of a profit, business will prosper....if allowed, if helped. I would love to believe it.
Here we are with a SURGING US STOCK MKT, and Consumer COnfidence fell instead of string rise....gee what is wrong
D
SO we'll surely embark on this episode with the highest level of total credit market debt in the history of the world as % of GDP?
I DO believe we can heal, we can grow, where there is the LURE of a profit, business will prosper....if allowed, if helped. I would love to believe it.
Here we are with a SURGING US STOCK MKT, and Consumer COnfidence fell instead of string rise....gee what is wrong
D
DAY OF RECKONING
My chart depicts what I percieve as Resistance trend line from the 2000 top, because this chart isn't being talked about much it may be valid, we won't know until it is tested, we are there now.
Next week is options expiration week, and they tend to be more bullish, with the FED meeting out of the way, the BULLS have a chance now to state their case as tell us the fundamental data doesn't matter, that job losses don't matter, that CHinese market is off 10% from highs doesn't matter (another 3% last night), that the BDI turning down about a month ago doesn't matter, dropping rail shipments dont matter, job losses continuing over 500,000 dont matter, falling home prices dont matter, tightening credit doesnt matter, other than FED no market for our paper dont matter, that FED is buying the very Treasuries needed to sell to others to fund deficits dont matter, empty shopping malls dont matter, commercial property stress dont matter, prime loans defaulting dont matter, fake bank earnings dont matter, and a SPX 500 overvalued by historical standards, well doesn't matter.
D
Thursday, August 13, 2009
PEOPLE ARE FED UP. CAN'T TRUST YOUR EYES?
Kingston, NY -- "The natives are restless. The third shot of the “Second American Revolution” has been fired. History is being made. But just as with the first two shots, the third shot is not being heard."
"The 2nd American Revolution has begun" Isn't it time, don't we deserve better than that asshole BArney Frank dim witted shit, Kerry, Gore, Obamma, and OK even Bush, Mitch the bitch and Nancy my hose are too tight POLEASSY? How can these ignorant dumb asses be running things? Have any of them ever had a REAL F'ing job? YOU HEAR ME?
If you think the stock market is signalling all is OK, you are f'ked up too. ALL we have here is an engineered rally on manipulation, MSM cronies and lies, fabricated data, and other dumb asses that don't even know what they're talking about, so they got Johnny in the gym talking about stocks again. (yes I'll have typos galore...I think faster than I can type haa so I catch the ones I can)
Well, if companies are going to make more money, revenues need to goup, so you think SALES need to go up? FUNNY thing, it doesn't show up in the data. KLunkers borrowing from FUTURE sales big f deal....with our money!
Idiots in Wash talking about REFORM.....sure I trust they'll get it right and it WONT cost us more...right!
Banks printing fictitious earnings that are not real, because their damn books dont relfect fing market value! WTF????? I'm sounding like the dude from Burn Before Reading, John Malkowitz, such a dirty mouth so much WTF!!!'s
NO data corroborates this Green Shoot thing in train, carloads, or BDI .....its a joke.
What we got is a revving up economy with MORE JOBS being cut, already 7 Million PLUS on the dole, NO home ATM machine, banks tightening credit, AND THE CONSUMER ASKING FOR LESS CREDIT, businesses tightening their belts but WASH isn't.....nuttin' but blue skies eh?
These idiot savants are really screwing us and this is a GOOD thing, because FINALLY maybe enough people will get mad enough and stop voting for firsts....QUeers like BArney Frank...and get real representation.
I mean if the majority of people dont want wha they're smoking, and they still ram it down out throats.....what happened to Democracy, what happened to our country.
AND half of these stooges dont even read the bills they vote on....how sad is that?
I see stocks going up BFD......I'm going to keep speaking my mind until I can't......I'm not blinded by this PABLUM they aresending our way in the form of this manifestation...a stock rally, when they haven't fixed a fing thing.
That dumbass on CNBC was saying..."we ought to give Bernanke a medal of honor, he saved s from certain ruin...." No the sheeple are bing led right over the edge and they dont know it...same people in a prison shower will PICK UP THE SOAP EVERYTIME!!!
SHIT that its for today, your ranting needs a beer or 2 truth divining rod. OH and one more thing, did you see the 10 year YIELD FALL TODAY!!!??? aint life in la la land grand?
Duratek...well if nothing else maybe I can amuse you
"The 2nd American Revolution has begun" Isn't it time, don't we deserve better than that asshole BArney Frank dim witted shit, Kerry, Gore, Obamma, and OK even Bush, Mitch the bitch and Nancy my hose are too tight POLEASSY? How can these ignorant dumb asses be running things? Have any of them ever had a REAL F'ing job? YOU HEAR ME?
If you think the stock market is signalling all is OK, you are f'ked up too. ALL we have here is an engineered rally on manipulation, MSM cronies and lies, fabricated data, and other dumb asses that don't even know what they're talking about, so they got Johnny in the gym talking about stocks again. (yes I'll have typos galore...I think faster than I can type haa so I catch the ones I can)
Well, if companies are going to make more money, revenues need to goup, so you think SALES need to go up? FUNNY thing, it doesn't show up in the data. KLunkers borrowing from FUTURE sales big f deal....with our money!
Idiots in Wash talking about REFORM.....sure I trust they'll get it right and it WONT cost us more...right!
Banks printing fictitious earnings that are not real, because their damn books dont relfect fing market value! WTF????? I'm sounding like the dude from Burn Before Reading, John Malkowitz, such a dirty mouth so much WTF!!!'s
NO data corroborates this Green Shoot thing in train, carloads, or BDI .....its a joke.
What we got is a revving up economy with MORE JOBS being cut, already 7 Million PLUS on the dole, NO home ATM machine, banks tightening credit, AND THE CONSUMER ASKING FOR LESS CREDIT, businesses tightening their belts but WASH isn't.....nuttin' but blue skies eh?
These idiot savants are really screwing us and this is a GOOD thing, because FINALLY maybe enough people will get mad enough and stop voting for firsts....QUeers like BArney Frank...and get real representation.
I mean if the majority of people dont want wha they're smoking, and they still ram it down out throats.....what happened to Democracy, what happened to our country.
AND half of these stooges dont even read the bills they vote on....how sad is that?
I see stocks going up BFD......I'm going to keep speaking my mind until I can't......I'm not blinded by this PABLUM they aresending our way in the form of this manifestation...a stock rally, when they haven't fixed a fing thing.
That dumbass on CNBC was saying..."we ought to give Bernanke a medal of honor, he saved s from certain ruin...." No the sheeple are bing led right over the edge and they dont know it...same people in a prison shower will PICK UP THE SOAP EVERYTIME!!!
SHIT that its for today, your ranting needs a beer or 2 truth divining rod. OH and one more thing, did you see the 10 year YIELD FALL TODAY!!!??? aint life in la la land grand?
Duratek...well if nothing else maybe I can amuse you
BROWN SHOOTS
"This is not about how much money banks can lend, it is whether there is any borrowing capacity and desire among consumers. The attempts by the media and government to stoke "animal spirits" among shoppers are doomed to fail because there are no jobs, there is no borrowing capacity, and there is no ability to pull forward demand - consumers officially hit the wall in JANUARY but nobody in the media will talk about it."
complete article must read
complete article must read
THURS AM DATA
YEAH, IS URE SEE RECOVERING CONSUMER.....NOT! click link to see data at BriefingPRICES FELL at a staggering rate, friends, that ain't called INFLATION!
D your keeping it straight contrarian
ECONOMISTS AGREE "RECESSION IS OVER!"
*But there is a reality that says the housing crisis which helped cause the banking crisis is NOT OVER? WTF???
Foreclosure plague: No cure in July
7:32am: The housing market is still sick, with a record number of foreclosure filings posted last month. More than 87,000 homes were repossessed. More
Another looming housing crisis
Futures show GREEN STRONG OPEN COMING (in most cases the market tends to do opposite of the day of the FED, which was triple digit gain)
Optimism about the economy and Recession are growing, and I heard a group of people swapping stock tips in the gym last night........animal spirits are raunning amuck again?
Old saying "the bust that follows a boom is of equal intensity" and many say history may not repeat exactly but it does repeat.
YEAH, I am sending ALARM bells out to my readers, be very careful now, the market can surely go higher, but what if something finally dispells the myth of a new bull market and boom is coming, or here?
Is is not enough that some losses have been recovered? Will you sit idley by AGAIN should prices skid and the bear resumes, or do you believe the market ? that only higher prices are possible
Nobody finds it interesting that the FED has to buy our Treasury bonds? and our commercial paper? WHY isnt there a normal market for it? WHY pound down interest rates in the most manipulated market in history?
Prices of homes as you can see are STILL DECLINING, foreclosures have slowed down? WHAT ARE earnings if institutions holding mortgage paper or homes (foreclosed) do not recognize MARKET VALUE? You know homes are NOT worth 90% of orig values at their height, but that's what they are doing. And that's why I think the term ZOMBIE banks applies just fine.
SOONER OR LATER we have to DEAL with the mess, papering over it, creating NEW FIAT MONIES to BUY OUR WAY out only denegrates the ones doing it, the bad shit is still sitting on their books or on the FEDS.
IN history, should counnt for something, th egreatest bull markets, when stocks are found at known great values, have been when S and P 500 index dividend yields were close to 6% or HIGHER. MAJOR MARKET TOPS like in 2000 find yields near 3%. WE ARE NOW AT 2.75% !
So even as stocks rise farther, they do so rising away from fair value, and put to risk those buying and HOLDING at ELEVATED values and at SPX above 24X earnings
There are those predicting $72 SPX earnings for 2010, THIS remains to be seen, even if earnings rise, what REALITY and VALIDITY are there when major Banks are allowed to print fictitious earnings based on suspension of mark to market value.
ONE THING FOR SURE, companies pay dividends from REAL EARNINGS, IMHO 2.75% is a PALTRY figure, and one more reminiscnet of a MAJOR TOP then anything resembling a bottom.
If you dont think the game is rigged guess again. THIS WILL turn out to be a game of musical chairs at some point as the veil is lifted and you get to see the man behind the curtain.
Expect more games with bank "earnings" more callas of expansion, hail to the chief and Bernanke, thank g-d for GS.....and the newest internet sensation is a game of grab your ankles.
Duratek
Foreclosure plague: No cure in July
7:32am: The housing market is still sick, with a record number of foreclosure filings posted last month. More than 87,000 homes were repossessed. More
Another looming housing crisis
Futures show GREEN STRONG OPEN COMING (in most cases the market tends to do opposite of the day of the FED, which was triple digit gain)
Optimism about the economy and Recession are growing, and I heard a group of people swapping stock tips in the gym last night........animal spirits are raunning amuck again?
Old saying "the bust that follows a boom is of equal intensity" and many say history may not repeat exactly but it does repeat.
YEAH, I am sending ALARM bells out to my readers, be very careful now, the market can surely go higher, but what if something finally dispells the myth of a new bull market and boom is coming, or here?
Is is not enough that some losses have been recovered? Will you sit idley by AGAIN should prices skid and the bear resumes, or do you believe the market ? that only higher prices are possible
Nobody finds it interesting that the FED has to buy our Treasury bonds? and our commercial paper? WHY isnt there a normal market for it? WHY pound down interest rates in the most manipulated market in history?
Prices of homes as you can see are STILL DECLINING, foreclosures have slowed down? WHAT ARE earnings if institutions holding mortgage paper or homes (foreclosed) do not recognize MARKET VALUE? You know homes are NOT worth 90% of orig values at their height, but that's what they are doing. And that's why I think the term ZOMBIE banks applies just fine.
SOONER OR LATER we have to DEAL with the mess, papering over it, creating NEW FIAT MONIES to BUY OUR WAY out only denegrates the ones doing it, the bad shit is still sitting on their books or on the FEDS.
IN history, should counnt for something, th egreatest bull markets, when stocks are found at known great values, have been when S and P 500 index dividend yields were close to 6% or HIGHER. MAJOR MARKET TOPS like in 2000 find yields near 3%. WE ARE NOW AT 2.75% !
So even as stocks rise farther, they do so rising away from fair value, and put to risk those buying and HOLDING at ELEVATED values and at SPX above 24X earnings
There are those predicting $72 SPX earnings for 2010, THIS remains to be seen, even if earnings rise, what REALITY and VALIDITY are there when major Banks are allowed to print fictitious earnings based on suspension of mark to market value.
ONE THING FOR SURE, companies pay dividends from REAL EARNINGS, IMHO 2.75% is a PALTRY figure, and one more reminiscnet of a MAJOR TOP then anything resembling a bottom.
If you dont think the game is rigged guess again. THIS WILL turn out to be a game of musical chairs at some point as the veil is lifted and you get to see the man behind the curtain.
Expect more games with bank "earnings" more callas of expansion, hail to the chief and Bernanke, thank g-d for GS.....and the newest internet sensation is a game of grab your ankles.
Duratek
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
FOMC STATEMENT
Press Release
Release Date: August 12, 2009
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
Release Date: August 12, 2009
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
EXCUSE LOW VOLUME RALLY AWAY?
You also see failed H and S formation so many traders got whipsawed in.
D
D
BULLS SAY "IMPROVING DEFICIT BULLISH"
GEE it wouldnt be because DEMAND HAS SLOWED? DURGHHHH hmmmm and it looks like same level as in 2000
D
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
MUMBO JUMBO MKT RECAP
SPX chart with some potential FIB targets IF a correction from MArch is in gear. Price around FED meetings can be very volatile, mabe by FRI the dust settles we will know more.JUMBO SIZED PROBLEM Insightful, real stats.
Go ahead and focus on a paltry but successful klunkers program of a few BILLION, what impact does it have on a $14 TRILLION economy?
Banks and ANYONE holding paper tied to mortgage market are not pricing these to market value so IMHO any earnings coming from same are worthless and fraudelent.
Japan has been MIRED in deflation for 20 years mainly because Banks did not excercise the demons and just held onto non performing paper and not recognizing its true value.
I think this market can go higher, I think this market is not for me, I think this market is way OVERVALUED based on 24 X SPX and div yield a stinky 2.75%....and FAKE earnings at that....now the CNBC shills come out in droves chirping about $72 SPX for 2010? How they gonna pull that off?
SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES?
No need to paraphrase here, from truthingold blog. It AIN'T over til it's over.
Then read It's Prime time STAGE 2
Folks, I just seek truth, I cannot determine where it comes or what it says. How this might effect markets, gold, the $ are open for discussion. For now, I might be better served, and you honing in on what the shorter term potentials are for investments.
IMHO, I do not think, and it's bared out in where the market was 10 years ago, we are in a LTBH climate, when we finally deal with ISSUES and stop trying to stimulate them or paper them away.....we can move on and prosper.
Because of decisions made, the leaking assets remain on the books, and are carried as 90% of orig value...is that the REAL WORLD WE live in? And doesn't that DISTORT earnings from those institutions using such fuzzy math?
D
Then read It's Prime time STAGE 2
Folks, I just seek truth, I cannot determine where it comes or what it says. How this might effect markets, gold, the $ are open for discussion. For now, I might be better served, and you honing in on what the shorter term potentials are for investments.
IMHO, I do not think, and it's bared out in where the market was 10 years ago, we are in a LTBH climate, when we finally deal with ISSUES and stop trying to stimulate them or paper them away.....we can move on and prosper.
Because of decisions made, the leaking assets remain on the books, and are carried as 90% of orig value...is that the REAL WORLD WE live in? And doesn't that DISTORT earnings from those institutions using such fuzzy math?
D
2 THINGS AM
Toxic assets still festering
3:42am: The Congressional Oversight Panel says the economy is still at risk because bad loans remain on banks' balance sheets. (AKA JAPAN)
Fed nervous about early recovery call
3:42am: The Congressional Oversight Panel says the economy is still at risk because bad loans remain on banks' balance sheets. (AKA JAPAN)
Fed nervous about early recovery call
Monday, August 10, 2009
GOLD
MACD monthly on sell, MA'S bullish trend and possible consolidation for run at what looks like Inverse Head and Shoulders. Tough call, but if US $ surprises ST gold may fall....I dont see price not being caught by one of the LT MA'S....monthly MACD cross for me trumps ST action
D
FED COMING
Meeting this week, no likely strong move ahead of this meeting. DO not expect any change in interest rate policy.
Some calling for SPX earnings near $72 in 2010 (CNBC guests). will the 6.7 million lost from 2007 suddenly go on buying binge?
D
Some calling for SPX earnings near $72 in 2010 (CNBC guests). will the 6.7 million lost from 2007 suddenly go on buying binge?
D
BREAKING DOWN "HOW DRY I AM "
def per wickpediaThe Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the Index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes.
Sunday, August 09, 2009
DOG OF THE HAIR THAT BITES
Borrowing a bit from this weekend Barron's Alan Abelson's always well crafted weekly essay, there is always more to a story than meets the eye.
If inflating your way to prosperity made it easy to bring about an economic revival and lasting growth economy, Argentina would far surpass Nations for prosperity. IN essence, the GOV and FED are trying to replace the COnsumer in the void that has been left by people trying to dig themselves out of debt. The government does not want you saving nor paying down debt. Investment coming from a populace's savings leads directly to productive capital expneditures which creates things, not consumption.
Can I shed some light on Fridays employment report? When concensus has us looking for "ONLY" 325,000 jobs lost in the month of July, when it came in at ONLY 245,000 well from Obama to CNBC this was trumpeted as proof positive the Recession was ending and time to rejoice. However they left out a few FACTS, let's not let FACTS get in the way of figuring out where we stand in this cycle?
100,000 auto workers and friends were ADDED back into work force as GM and friends came OUT of bankruptcy, and of course Federal Gov hires! And have incomes really gone up? Does adding 3 cents to everyone's paycheck give us reason to toot? Remember the min wage was raised.
We have LOST almost 7 MILLION jobs since 2007 ! We have countless MILLIONS on furloughs, reduced hours, part time or lower paying jobs desiring full time.
People getting Gov assistance for more than 27 weeks GREW by 584,000 to 5 MILLION!!! is that a sign of economic revival the stock mkt is reciting?
And how about the DROP in rate to 9.4% from 9.5%? It was caused by 422,000 decline in work force, people just giving up!
Another sign of "strength" for the "first time ever, it (market) has rallied nearly 50% amidst a two-million- job-slide" says Dave Rosenberg of Guskin Sheff.
Now, I've been thinking......there have been a LOT of firsts during the decline.......and we now know THE IN CROWD is monitoring historic technical analysis and when even MAIN STREAM MEDIA began recounting the month ago head and shoulders formation....and the day it broke down......instead of fullfilling the decline it prognosticated it REVERSED ABCK UP and NEGATED the signal!!!! interesting.
We have the big dogs (GS friends) allowed to "trade in front of everyone else" and make BILLIONS doing so sanctioned by the protective? SEC.
We have GS and JPM and who knows who else taking OUR money from the GOV teet and putting it to work in the market....worldwide maybe.
WE have CHina goosing economy, naming 8% GDP? by sending out appliances for free mostly to people without adequate electricity or water to run them?
Cash for klunkers.....instead of buying that suit we got a new car, and more debt. Another sign of Gov intervention in the marketplace, determining where money is spent.
A commercial real estate sector now just shit hitting the fan....not being reported.
We have SLACK by historical standards in our manufacturing capacity, not showing we have increased our output nor will that help companies raise prices for more profit.
Will 7 MILLION newly unemployed since 2007 CUT BACK on spending? especially XMAS? HOW could 7 MILLION fewer people with jobs take up the slack in spending needed?
Is and SPX 500 at 24X earnings (fake) and dividend yield 2.75% more indicative of past TOPS than stocks at GOOD VALUES? Have stocks reached a point where way more than good news is priced in, instead of opposite. WHAT does history tell us of buying at these levels?
If stock prices are below the 2000 level, are we NOT in a SECULAR BEAR TREND that will last for many more years UNTIL HISTORIC NORMS ARE RETURNED?
WILL a MACD monthly bullish cross usher in a BULL MKT as it mostly has, or is that broke too?
This is UNLIKE 2002-2003 where autos, housing had YET to be PUMPED, now we are just trying to REFLATE THEM, way different backdrop.
Recent poll showed 97% Bearish view towards US $$ ($$ decline has fueled stock rally). Interest rates may not but are near an upside breakout.
ALT A loans are due to begin resetting and foreclosures are rising. HOME PRICES have not yet stabilized, but Banks are allowed to carry their paper as if worth 90% of orig value!!!! are they? This in turn allows them NOT to have to raise capital requirements for losses.
I am not stating anything that isn't true, how this plays out in the stock market is yet to be determined.
I showed by some accounts the SPX 1036 LINE IN SAND, 1017-1020 zone forced back prices Friday.
VOLUME is way below previous BULL breakouts, are institutions on sidelines? is that THE SMART money and where the volume hides? WILL THEY BE FORCED to come in? How many BEARS have capitulated?
Duratek
If inflating your way to prosperity made it easy to bring about an economic revival and lasting growth economy, Argentina would far surpass Nations for prosperity. IN essence, the GOV and FED are trying to replace the COnsumer in the void that has been left by people trying to dig themselves out of debt. The government does not want you saving nor paying down debt. Investment coming from a populace's savings leads directly to productive capital expneditures which creates things, not consumption.
Can I shed some light on Fridays employment report? When concensus has us looking for "ONLY" 325,000 jobs lost in the month of July, when it came in at ONLY 245,000 well from Obama to CNBC this was trumpeted as proof positive the Recession was ending and time to rejoice. However they left out a few FACTS, let's not let FACTS get in the way of figuring out where we stand in this cycle?
100,000 auto workers and friends were ADDED back into work force as GM and friends came OUT of bankruptcy, and of course Federal Gov hires! And have incomes really gone up? Does adding 3 cents to everyone's paycheck give us reason to toot? Remember the min wage was raised.
We have LOST almost 7 MILLION jobs since 2007 ! We have countless MILLIONS on furloughs, reduced hours, part time or lower paying jobs desiring full time.
People getting Gov assistance for more than 27 weeks GREW by 584,000 to 5 MILLION!!! is that a sign of economic revival the stock mkt is reciting?
And how about the DROP in rate to 9.4% from 9.5%? It was caused by 422,000 decline in work force, people just giving up!
Another sign of "strength" for the "first time ever, it (market) has rallied nearly 50% amidst a two-million- job-slide" says Dave Rosenberg of Guskin Sheff.
Now, I've been thinking......there have been a LOT of firsts during the decline.......and we now know THE IN CROWD is monitoring historic technical analysis and when even MAIN STREAM MEDIA began recounting the month ago head and shoulders formation....and the day it broke down......instead of fullfilling the decline it prognosticated it REVERSED ABCK UP and NEGATED the signal!!!! interesting.
We have the big dogs (GS friends) allowed to "trade in front of everyone else" and make BILLIONS doing so sanctioned by the protective? SEC.
We have GS and JPM and who knows who else taking OUR money from the GOV teet and putting it to work in the market....worldwide maybe.
WE have CHina goosing economy, naming 8% GDP? by sending out appliances for free mostly to people without adequate electricity or water to run them?
Cash for klunkers.....instead of buying that suit we got a new car, and more debt. Another sign of Gov intervention in the marketplace, determining where money is spent.
A commercial real estate sector now just shit hitting the fan....not being reported.
We have SLACK by historical standards in our manufacturing capacity, not showing we have increased our output nor will that help companies raise prices for more profit.
Will 7 MILLION newly unemployed since 2007 CUT BACK on spending? especially XMAS? HOW could 7 MILLION fewer people with jobs take up the slack in spending needed?
Is and SPX 500 at 24X earnings (fake) and dividend yield 2.75% more indicative of past TOPS than stocks at GOOD VALUES? Have stocks reached a point where way more than good news is priced in, instead of opposite. WHAT does history tell us of buying at these levels?
If stock prices are below the 2000 level, are we NOT in a SECULAR BEAR TREND that will last for many more years UNTIL HISTORIC NORMS ARE RETURNED?
WILL a MACD monthly bullish cross usher in a BULL MKT as it mostly has, or is that broke too?
This is UNLIKE 2002-2003 where autos, housing had YET to be PUMPED, now we are just trying to REFLATE THEM, way different backdrop.
Recent poll showed 97% Bearish view towards US $$ ($$ decline has fueled stock rally). Interest rates may not but are near an upside breakout.
ALT A loans are due to begin resetting and foreclosures are rising. HOME PRICES have not yet stabilized, but Banks are allowed to carry their paper as if worth 90% of orig value!!!! are they? This in turn allows them NOT to have to raise capital requirements for losses.
I am not stating anything that isn't true, how this plays out in the stock market is yet to be determined.
I showed by some accounts the SPX 1036 LINE IN SAND, 1017-1020 zone forced back prices Friday.
VOLUME is way below previous BULL breakouts, are institutions on sidelines? is that THE SMART money and where the volume hides? WILL THEY BE FORCED to come in? How many BEARS have capitulated?
Duratek
Saturday, August 08, 2009
TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT AS % of GDP !
http://comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/421.pdf It will speak for itself!
Then
Deleveraging the US economy
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Then
Deleveraging the US economy
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HISTORIC DEBT/CREDIT GOVERNMENT FINANCE BUBBLE FORMING
FRIENDS,
DOUG NOLAND is the MOST elloquent to speak for US. READ WHAT I POST HERE FROM MY LINK BELOW!!
FORGET fundamentals, IT IS as we all know IT IS....in the shitter!!!!!!!!
This is the best rally $TRILLIONS can buy, coordinated worldwide relfation of a magnatude never seen before.....READ NOLAND
WHO cares if we go to 20,000 on the DOW, we will end at 2,000..in our lifetime. WHAT IS ocurring NOW is the FORMATION of the most HISTORIC DEBT/CREDIT bubble the world has ever seen........maybe when the bond bubble (20 PLUS year bull) EXPLODES....we will have our answer and IT will have begun
WHAT else in the arsenal will be left after this episode? enjoy while it lasts...we are nimble JAck be quick!
The Stock Market and Monetary Disorder: by Doug Noland complete text HERE (scroll to bottom for commentary)
>>>I’ll restate my thesis as concisely as I can (not my strong suit): The deeply maladjusted U.S. “Bubble” economy requires $2.5 Trillion or so of net new Credit creation to stem systemic (Credit and economic Bubbles) implosion. Only “government” (Treasury, agency debt, and GSE MBS) debt can, today, fill the gigantic void created with the bursting of the Wall Street/mortgage finance Bubble.
The private sector Credit system is severely impaired, and there is as well the reality that the market largely lost trust (loss of “moneyness”) in Wall Street obligations (private-label MBS, CDOs, ABS, auction-rate securities, etc.). The $2.0 Trillion of U.S. “government” Credit creation coupled with the Trillion-plus expansion of Federal Reserve Credit over the past year has stabilized U.S. financial and economic systems. <<<< this is just opening paragraph READ THIS ESSAY NOW!!!!
Duratek
DOUG NOLAND is the MOST elloquent to speak for US. READ WHAT I POST HERE FROM MY LINK BELOW!!
FORGET fundamentals, IT IS as we all know IT IS....in the shitter!!!!!!!!
This is the best rally $TRILLIONS can buy, coordinated worldwide relfation of a magnatude never seen before.....READ NOLAND
WHO cares if we go to 20,000 on the DOW, we will end at 2,000..in our lifetime. WHAT IS ocurring NOW is the FORMATION of the most HISTORIC DEBT/CREDIT bubble the world has ever seen........maybe when the bond bubble (20 PLUS year bull) EXPLODES....we will have our answer and IT will have begun
WHAT else in the arsenal will be left after this episode? enjoy while it lasts...we are nimble JAck be quick!
The Stock Market and Monetary Disorder: by Doug Noland complete text HERE (scroll to bottom for commentary)
>>>I’ll restate my thesis as concisely as I can (not my strong suit): The deeply maladjusted U.S. “Bubble” economy requires $2.5 Trillion or so of net new Credit creation to stem systemic (Credit and economic Bubbles) implosion. Only “government” (Treasury, agency debt, and GSE MBS) debt can, today, fill the gigantic void created with the bursting of the Wall Street/mortgage finance Bubble.
The private sector Credit system is severely impaired, and there is as well the reality that the market largely lost trust (loss of “moneyness”) in Wall Street obligations (private-label MBS, CDOs, ABS, auction-rate securities, etc.). The $2.0 Trillion of U.S. “government” Credit creation coupled with the Trillion-plus expansion of Federal Reserve Credit over the past year has stabilized U.S. financial and economic systems. <<<< this is just opening paragraph READ THIS ESSAY NOW!!!!
Duratek
Friday, August 07, 2009
SENTIMENT READINGS SENDING UP WARNINGS SIGNS
PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST go here, read this. MY opinions on fundamental shit wont make us a dime, or tell direction of market, their about educating on what is there or not....trading is different story, the dollar popped up today....I said watch the 80.00 level ...
Sentiment canbe key warning signal
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Sentiment canbe key warning signal
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TALE #2 BEAR MARKET BOTTOM?
Tale #2 (click to enlarge of course)
NO TEST OF BOTTOM, we got a V shaped move suggesting perhaps a V shaped economic revival that few were anticipating, bulls are on fire.
How does today differ from 2000 Bear Market? WHAT FUEL do we have to FEED the bull, the NEW economy?
This time unemployment near HISTORIC levels, we havent even fallen (all are crowing the improvement) back to the worst it was during previous Recession. We have lost maybe 6-7 MILLION JOBS.
We do not have homes as ATM machines this time around, so there isn't $1Trillion to pull from there to WICK economy.
The GOV is now doing the spending for us, and deficits near $200B a month MUST be financed.
Banking lending standards instead of lending to anyone who could sign an X, have batten down the hatches and have TIGHTENED CREDIT. (pssssssstttt economy thrives on EXPANDING CREDIT.
Banks were HEALTHY in 2002, now many are GONE phttttt, and the ones left are NOT SOLVENT (pssssttt they dont want you 2 know this)
ONLY an accounting change and access to inside th ebeltway info has poured in trading profits, but the accounting change has allowed BAnks to carry the KRAPPY PAPER as if it was worth 90% of ORIG VALUE!>?????????????? WTF you say?
SO even the earnings here are TAINTED SLUG. A LIE
Unemployment is UNDER REPORTED, we are near 16% under employed this go round one of the WORST U6 data in History, only one worse.
NO uptick in manuf capacity, it sits at record lows, SLACK in capacity does NOT lead to pricing POWER = drag on profits.
6 million not around to spend like drunken sailors, State budgets are making them cut workers.
Challenger and Christmans and Trim Tabs both REFUTE evidence of the BLS data most Lemmings and Sheeple are fed....no one will listen (SEE MY VIDEO)
STimulus is giving some a boost, some inventory building may lead to an upside surprise in GDP again take with grain of salt THEY SEASONALLY ADJUST EVERYTHING it cant be trusted.
TRIM TABS IS REAL DEAL. ALSO check SHADOW STATS I posted.
BDI is NOT taking off, as stocks have risen it has begun to fall, not a good sign. (look it up if you dont know what BDI is)
RAIL tonnage does not suggest robust recovery.
THERE IS NO HOUSING BOOM to goose and all its trickle down. MOST landscape for banking has changed....only the insider chosen few look good.
We're not through thisyet, ALT A loans, adj mortgages and Commercial Real Estate are all LOOMING.
With every report and political chortle of improving econmy the pressure on long term rates grows.......THE SHELL GAME FOLKS ANOTHER PONZI MOVE.
You think you take us to the brink, and you take us to TOTAL CREDIT MKT DEBT as % of GDP to 350% and we V shape? (265% in 1929 !)
WE don't have Consumer FUEL to stoke this fire so what we figure GOV and FED and GS keep this going? F!!!!
NO fricken way we get off this easy, JMHO From where I sit, I have outlined my logical argument, think about it, if you have a view back it up...I did.
There is NO right opinion, I just have mine and it makes sense to me. PILING ON GOV DEBT and not healing from orig wound, letting GS rule the world.....another fine mess, EVENTUALLY will be dealth with....I cannot speculate how far mkt goes....I just dont like the underpinnings of it as I laid out besides it is selling for 24X (plus) SPX earnings and a SCANT BUBBLE TOPPISH 2.75% DIVIDEND YIELD...folks...too rich for me, buying because prices go up (if not in early) not my game
D
TALE OF TWO BEAR BOTTOMS "TALE #1"
Click to enlargePlease see comments on chart.
Fundamentally in 2003 we began to see effect of the LOW interest rates, and LOOSE money policies, including the Japanese carry trade that kept feeding the LOW US rate machine, and debt machine.
AN historic housing BOOM tunred HISTORIC BUBBLE began, goosing everything you can think of and US companies ran into 2007 with RECORD EARNINGS GAINS. FINANCIALS were making money hand over fist by loaning to anyone, lying and packaging them off to anyone, rating agencies played the game and most got AAA rating. RECORD derivitive contracts were built up into the $70 Trillion land.
Cars sold, homes sold, condos sold, prices soared, speculation, flipping, credit/debt abuses ran amuck, NO agency nor FED nor SEC Treasury blew the whistle, too many on WALL STREET were sucking teet.
For the homes furniture was bought, asphalt was laid, cement poured, glass fashioned, furniture sold, lumber, etc etc etc.....world synchronized economic melt up.
BUT IT CAME AT A COST........it wasnt REAL
THEN the fallout came, and the bailouts, and the speaches.......after 2001 devestated this country, Consumers got back on their feet, low interest rates worked as well did Consumer spending ramped to the heavens by RISING HOME EQUITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
$TRILLIONS were borrowed against these rising values and SPENT.....YES it was one sweet deal while it lasted...when all are making tons of money....who cares?
ANd when it breaks, the connected get BAILED out, oh well for the good of the people....pstttt
Read on next post for TALE 2........end of this story....layoffs never went above 500,000...and people were put QUICKLY back to work. With SO much spending power, with such LOOSE CREDIT and historic expansion of DEBT.....the things booms and busts are made of. FUEL FOR THE FIRE WAS THERE>
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MONSTER FABLE?
Monster Worldwide Inc MNST.O, an online careers and recruiting firm, said its employment index edged down three points in July to 114 from 117 in June. The current month's reading is 27 percent below the 157 mark seen a year ago.
While job openings posted online are at their lowest in nearly 2-1/2 years,
While job openings posted online are at their lowest in nearly 2-1/2 years,
SO THE RECESSION IS OVER?
Interesting, unemployment actually dropped to 9.4% ? ONLY 247,000 jobs were lost, much lower than expected? Incomes rose? workweek ticked up .1% but that was from near record low of 33.0, what to make of this?
WHY did Challenger and Christmas report that the "pace of layoffs picked up in July?" and they also say the GOV is grossly under reporting job losses?
MORE:
>>The dip in the unemployment rate - from June's 9.5 percent - was the first since April 2008. One of the reasons the rate went down, however, was because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. Fewer people, though, did report being unemployed.
WEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!! YAHOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! actually what NO ONE will tell you but me, is the level of people leaving the workforce actually increased by 585,000 !!
All told, there were 14.5 million out of work in July. 6.7 MILLION JOBS HAVE BEEN LOST SINCE RECESSION BEGAN!!!! 6.7 MILION FEWER PAYING INTO IRA's......where is all the stock mkt mney coming from ? where will the INCREASE in Consumer Spending come from with 6.7 M fewer putting out.
BANKS:
Banks cap requirements were lowered from $600B to about $75B mostly with stroke of pen, but they KNOW its $600B, hence WONT lend, especialy to consumers, how DO WE GOOSE CONSUMPTION which may break the cycle of deflation?
Banks are currently allowed to keep mortgages on books at 90 cents on $, as if would be held to maturity with NO defaults....IMHO creating the ZOMBIE Bank scenario. ONLY HUGE increase in GDO led by consumer spending may break hold, last report showing big drop in wages/income, and meager increase in spending not a good sign.
OK OK.....let's argue that Recession is OVER. Let's argue the Banks are HEALED. Not what? The stock market has come far, and it has climbed the wall of worry, NOW let's see what it does with this GREAT NEWS.
I'm going to tell you, I don't see the US Consumer, less near 7 MILLION toting the load for all.
ARE BAnks bracing for the NEXT ROUND OF DEFAULTS? from prime borrowers and Commercial Real Estate, from ALt A loans?
ARE stocks worth paying over 24 X eranings currently? THE 10 year in shooting up with this "rosey" scenraio being presented today to above 3.8%, which is a good bit better than yield on SPX 500 dividends at 2.75% !
US $$ is rising modestly this AM. Provision i next years budget for addt'l $1T for banks!
If we dont get real nice GOOSE from Consumer Spending, operational cuts to meet profit targets wil not help additionally and we could fall below current reported $55 a share in earnings, making fair value of SPX below 700, not current 1,000
With the rebuilding of inventories, we might get GDP surprise, I hope the remaiming Consumers can sop it up for the 7 MILLION who can't.....
SPX resistance might be found near current levels, anywhere from 1004-1017.
D
WHY did Challenger and Christmas report that the "pace of layoffs picked up in July?" and they also say the GOV is grossly under reporting job losses?
MORE:
>>The dip in the unemployment rate - from June's 9.5 percent - was the first since April 2008. One of the reasons the rate went down, however, was because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. Fewer people, though, did report being unemployed.
WEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!! YAHOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! actually what NO ONE will tell you but me, is the level of people leaving the workforce actually increased by 585,000 !!
All told, there were 14.5 million out of work in July. 6.7 MILLION JOBS HAVE BEEN LOST SINCE RECESSION BEGAN!!!! 6.7 MILION FEWER PAYING INTO IRA's......where is all the stock mkt mney coming from ? where will the INCREASE in Consumer Spending come from with 6.7 M fewer putting out.
BANKS:
Banks cap requirements were lowered from $600B to about $75B mostly with stroke of pen, but they KNOW its $600B, hence WONT lend, especialy to consumers, how DO WE GOOSE CONSUMPTION which may break the cycle of deflation?
Banks are currently allowed to keep mortgages on books at 90 cents on $, as if would be held to maturity with NO defaults....IMHO creating the ZOMBIE Bank scenario. ONLY HUGE increase in GDO led by consumer spending may break hold, last report showing big drop in wages/income, and meager increase in spending not a good sign.
OK OK.....let's argue that Recession is OVER. Let's argue the Banks are HEALED. Not what? The stock market has come far, and it has climbed the wall of worry, NOW let's see what it does with this GREAT NEWS.
I'm going to tell you, I don't see the US Consumer, less near 7 MILLION toting the load for all.
ARE BAnks bracing for the NEXT ROUND OF DEFAULTS? from prime borrowers and Commercial Real Estate, from ALt A loans?
ARE stocks worth paying over 24 X eranings currently? THE 10 year in shooting up with this "rosey" scenraio being presented today to above 3.8%, which is a good bit better than yield on SPX 500 dividends at 2.75% !
US $$ is rising modestly this AM. Provision i next years budget for addt'l $1T for banks!
If we dont get real nice GOOSE from Consumer Spending, operational cuts to meet profit targets wil not help additionally and we could fall below current reported $55 a share in earnings, making fair value of SPX below 700, not current 1,000
With the rebuilding of inventories, we might get GDP surprise, I hope the remaiming Consumers can sop it up for the 7 MILLION who can't.....
SPX resistance might be found near current levels, anywhere from 1004-1017.
D
Thursday, August 06, 2009
SLOWDOWN SLOWS BUT DIRECTION THE SAME
Friends, the data is not supportive to a return to prosperity, on the contrary, we are digging a deeper hole to throw ourselves in.
from vaunted source TRIM TABS
TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy lost 488,000 jobs in July, considerably more than the consensus estimate of a loss of 305,000 jobs. In addition, TrimTabs expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise its job loss estimates sharply higher for the first half of 2009 based on the latest unemployment insurance survey results.
“While Wall Street is convinced the recession is over, the economy continues to shed jobs at an alarming rate,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs.
*Here we are friends with the GOONS from CNBC trotting all their crony friends out to herald the NEW GREAT BULL MKT and economic expansion....even as the one we got aint finished contracting, well it has slowed its decent into hell.
Housing prices over much of the US are still falling. and this would under normal circumstances take HUGE HITS to the financials bottom line, instead they no longer have to show losses or values based on market value....they can just make it up I guess.....OH and borrow at 0% and trade like bandits for profits.
Unless I'm wrong, and maybe they'll goose up the next GDP to 3% and SURPRISE EVERYONE!!!! even if it comes from inventory buildup and its temporary.
If they can BIRTH as many jobs out of thin air they want, anything is possible, trust your eyes...and nose
ANd below from another great source ZERO HEDGE! we got manipulation folks, all sanctioned by the FED who doesn't want tog et audited......
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/feds-us....
In a brilliant piece of investigative reporting, Chris Martenson (original article here) has uncovered that the Fed, merely a week after issuing $28 billion in 7 year bonds (which Zero Hedge discussed previously) of which $10 billion ended up being purchased by primary dealers, has turned and bought 47% of the primary allocated bonds in Open Market Purchases. This is undisputed monetization removed simply via one primary dealer and less than 5 days of temporal separation in order to leave no easy trace.
As Martenson points out:"A more honest and open approach would have been for the Fed to simply buy them outright at the auction but this way, using "primary dealers" and "POMOs" and all these other extra steps the basic fact that the Fed is openly monetizing US government debt is effectively hidden from a not-too-terribly inquisitive US press and public."
D
from vaunted source TRIM TABS
TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy lost 488,000 jobs in July, considerably more than the consensus estimate of a loss of 305,000 jobs. In addition, TrimTabs expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise its job loss estimates sharply higher for the first half of 2009 based on the latest unemployment insurance survey results.
“While Wall Street is convinced the recession is over, the economy continues to shed jobs at an alarming rate,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs.
*Here we are friends with the GOONS from CNBC trotting all their crony friends out to herald the NEW GREAT BULL MKT and economic expansion....even as the one we got aint finished contracting, well it has slowed its decent into hell.
Housing prices over much of the US are still falling. and this would under normal circumstances take HUGE HITS to the financials bottom line, instead they no longer have to show losses or values based on market value....they can just make it up I guess.....OH and borrow at 0% and trade like bandits for profits.
Unless I'm wrong, and maybe they'll goose up the next GDP to 3% and SURPRISE EVERYONE!!!! even if it comes from inventory buildup and its temporary.
If they can BIRTH as many jobs out of thin air they want, anything is possible, trust your eyes...and nose
ANd below from another great source ZERO HEDGE! we got manipulation folks, all sanctioned by the FED who doesn't want tog et audited......
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/feds-us....
In a brilliant piece of investigative reporting, Chris Martenson (original article here) has uncovered that the Fed, merely a week after issuing $28 billion in 7 year bonds (which Zero Hedge discussed previously) of which $10 billion ended up being purchased by primary dealers, has turned and bought 47% of the primary allocated bonds in Open Market Purchases. This is undisputed monetization removed simply via one primary dealer and less than 5 days of temporal separation in order to leave no easy trace.
As Martenson points out:"A more honest and open approach would have been for the Fed to simply buy them outright at the auction but this way, using "primary dealers" and "POMOs" and all these other extra steps the basic fact that the Fed is openly monetizing US government debt is effectively hidden from a not-too-terribly inquisitive US press and public."
D
We're Getting JOBBED
CNBC doing it again, heralding in the recovery, end of recession huge improvement in job picture theme AKA Carnival BArkers.
We're not even BACK to the worst it got after 911. Initial break from PEAK of job losses in 2001 didnt lead to stock market bottom until late 2002-2003.
Folks at some point businesses have SHED so many workers, well, there arent as many left to axe, so this number drops.
Are we CREATING jobs? REHIRING fired workers? Putting people back to full time from reduced hours?
Take from it what you will, OH remember the BLS gov stat team adds jobs out of thin air, trust your eyes....
D
SUBJECT " BUY AND HOLD THE NIKK"
Deflation can be a nasty beast, zombie banks are one of the reasons deflation came and never left. Initially caused by a historic REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN JAPAN and subsequent POP!
Does that sound familiar? Did buy and hold work in Japan? 40K the high 20 years ago, now 10K.
This sad pattern has repeated, with each new lower high sent to a new lower low for 20 years now THAT'S a SECULAR TREND.
One difference, Japan is a nation of savers, we are not.
Is this what WE are destined for? Are we in a SECULAR BEAR trend now? Isn't our market LOWER than almost 10 years ago?
Did we clean up our banking system? Did they acknowledge their losses? MY answer is NO! That was too painful, instead we PROPPED them up, gave them $trillions and changed accounting rules to HIDE THEIR CONTINUED LOSSES. IMHO SPX earnings with financials a huge part, with BOGUS accounting standards throws a shadow of doubt on reported earnngs.
If large institutions cannot make decent return on bonds, SPX dividend yield BELOW 3%, if banks arent loaning money like before, only a few companies going public, well these fancy dudes had to make it up somewhere.
IF GS was so strong, WHY did they change their business model? why did they accept TARP funds? ARE they going to the FED, taking money at 0% and buying S and P futures running the market up? DIDNT GS report 80% of their $10B in earnings were from "trading profits"
WHY does every politician use the word "CHANGE" to get elected?
D
"Reports" AM TALK
NEW YORK (AP) -- Retailers are reporting sluggish sales for July as shoppers' worries about jobs escalate, raising concern about the health of the back-to-school shopping season.
As merchants report their sales figures Thursday, mall-based chains continue to be hit hardest as consumers focus on necessities. Among the disappointments are Stage Stores Inc. and teen retailer Wet Seal Inc. Stage Stores' same-store sales fell 11.9 percent and Wet Seal 12.1 percent.
Warehouse club operator Costco Wholesale Corp.'s results are slightly below analysts' estimates.
Its same-store sales dropped 7 percent.
The sales figures are based on same-store sales or sales at stores opened at least a year. Same-store sales are considered a key indicator of a retailers' health.
My hunch is stocks might trade in narrow range today awaiting the unemployment report due out 8:30 FRI. We may be setting up for a large move, either way.
Flow of funds are coming into stocks, with seasonal LOW volumes, I dont expect this to change in the ST
D
As merchants report their sales figures Thursday, mall-based chains continue to be hit hardest as consumers focus on necessities. Among the disappointments are Stage Stores Inc. and teen retailer Wet Seal Inc. Stage Stores' same-store sales fell 11.9 percent and Wet Seal 12.1 percent.
Warehouse club operator Costco Wholesale Corp.'s results are slightly below analysts' estimates.
Its same-store sales dropped 7 percent.
The sales figures are based on same-store sales or sales at stores opened at least a year. Same-store sales are considered a key indicator of a retailers' health.
My hunch is stocks might trade in narrow range today awaiting the unemployment report due out 8:30 FRI. We may be setting up for a large move, either way.
Flow of funds are coming into stocks, with seasonal LOW volumes, I dont expect this to change in the ST
D
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
DOLLAR DEATH SPIRAL
A falling US $ is condusive to a stock rally until it isn't, when it isn't is if its decline escallates IMHO or breaks previous lows
D
GREEN SHOOTS
P&G's profit falls, shares skid- AP
Planned layoffs accelerate again in July- Reuters
Also SOCIETE GENERAL profit drops by 50%.
This just out:
U.S. July ISM non-manufacturing falls to 46.4%
Stock prices should be supported by earnings,
D
Planned layoffs accelerate again in July- Reuters
Also SOCIETE GENERAL profit drops by 50%.
This just out:
U.S. July ISM non-manufacturing falls to 46.4%
Posted by Karl Denninger in Macro Economics at 09:12 (Page 1 of 405, totaling 1215 entries) » next page
ADP Payroll: Ugh
I can't agree that this report shows "green shoots":
Stock prices should be supported by earnings,
D
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
LET'S GET REAL
CHINA BOOM? American Institue For Policy Research
Finding a top? Depends on if TOO many are looking. The trend is UP, until proven otherwise.
also read MEAN SHOOTS same website
A BOOM of sorts has been BOUGHT, will it get into economy at large BEFORE it backfires with inflation breakout.
I think int rates and US $ hold key
D
Finding a top? Depends on if TOO many are looking. The trend is UP, until proven otherwise.
also read MEAN SHOOTS same website
A BOOM of sorts has been BOUGHT, will it get into economy at large BEFORE it backfires with inflation breakout.
I think int rates and US $ hold key
D
BDI NOT CONSISTANT WITH RECOVERY THEME
I hear what the bulss are saying, I won't ignore the facts as I see them. We could argue being long near DOW 7,000, but unless this IS NEW BULL MKT then running after a market already run up a good bit and with PE ratios consistant with prior tops, I think I'll takea knee and WAIT for better opportunity.
Don't read what I have to say and then blame me for making a bad decision, If you agree with not enterring this market NOW if you havet been and think easy money been had fine.....do as you see fit, I dont suggest anyone do anything.... You have to learn to think for yourself.
ANy investment carries risk, I look to minimize it, Another stute reader suggested it should be more about preservig what you got, not making more. This may be one of those times.
I have said going short is very risky, I also said I am not short nor have been since MArch... if you think the market is going to continue UP and we're in a NEW BULL MKT, then do as you see fit, pardon me if I dont agree an dont chase the market.
I am working towards JUST TRADING SPX futures contracts, then I dont need to care about the fundamentals, just day to day, hour to hour trading, not the bigger picture. I'll read and write about that just for fun.
No one was posting how good an idea it would be at DOW 6,600 to get long, so much for that.
D
AM POST "BULL MKT WITHOUT THE BULL"
Not Just Black and White "Change in consumer Behavior"
>>The focal point for us was the -0.2% decline in PCE for 2008 versus 2007. That doesn't amount to much at first glance, but it really speaks volumes about the weakened state of the U.S. consumer in the wake of the simultaneous crashes in the housing, stock, and labor markets.
Table 7B lends some real color to this black-and-white number for 2008. It presents a breakdown of the changes in real GDP from the preceding year, dating back to 1959.
What one will see in this table is that the -0.2% decline in 2008 for PCE was the first decline in 28 years!
Table 7B lends some real color to this black-and-white number for 2008. It presents a breakdown of the changes in real GDP from the preceding year, dating back to 1959.
What one will see in this table is that the -0.2% decline in 2008 for PCE was the first decline in 28 years!
That's right. You have to go all the way back to 1980 to see another minus sign next to the change in PCE from the preceding year. Sure enough, this is almost the same time the personal savings rate went into what looked like a permanent downturn. <<<
GANDER where 02'-03' turned up from, the CONSUMER came back with a VENGEANCE......the data I am pouring over is telling me the exact OPPOSITE this time, so we are to believe thatthe GOV can take the place of the Consumer? The 6 MILLION unemployed? the 16% underemployed? By giving away even more of our money to the financials? for klunkers?
With stocks near record valuations, only continued GS and friends manipulation keeps this thing going, but up til now betting against them has been painful.
D
Monday, August 03, 2009
MONDAY MARKET WRAP
Today rally fell just shy of 90% upside volume, but hard to argue on its strength. Again fundamental opinion need not be there to back up market action over periods of time.
I don't usually go against prevailing trend, so I am not taking lumps on the short side, going long is personal choice. I think the rally can go to 1200 on the SPX, I have said that, to the 618 FIB retrace level, it's looking more like that's what it will do.
Prices on the DOW were testing underside of some very long term trend lines, we are there now, but current action appears not to be denied. Shortly this will be decided.
Friends, the time to get in good was months ago, IMHO THE SPX is now selling at a huge premium to earnings, so that is not what I look for to get in longer term, but in the ST there is always something to play if you have the skills.....I never said nor would I dont trade.
Sitting LTBH from 14,000 plus DOW doesn't feel good does it? It's all relative, at some point going forward, the market is going to hit some sure stiff resistance.
You do what you feel best, traders will be trading UP or down...sellers do not have control of the market right now thats a given.
SPX 1014-1017 right ahead, pass that and 1200 could be in cards, take care. Reality has for now taken leave of senses....the rats rule the nest
D
I don't usually go against prevailing trend, so I am not taking lumps on the short side, going long is personal choice. I think the rally can go to 1200 on the SPX, I have said that, to the 618 FIB retrace level, it's looking more like that's what it will do.
Prices on the DOW were testing underside of some very long term trend lines, we are there now, but current action appears not to be denied. Shortly this will be decided.
Friends, the time to get in good was months ago, IMHO THE SPX is now selling at a huge premium to earnings, so that is not what I look for to get in longer term, but in the ST there is always something to play if you have the skills.....I never said nor would I dont trade.
Sitting LTBH from 14,000 plus DOW doesn't feel good does it? It's all relative, at some point going forward, the market is going to hit some sure stiff resistance.
You do what you feel best, traders will be trading UP or down...sellers do not have control of the market right now thats a given.
SPX 1014-1017 right ahead, pass that and 1200 could be in cards, take care. Reality has for now taken leave of senses....the rats rule the nest
D
Saturday, August 01, 2009
CHART OF THE S and P 500
See comments on chart, this is one I am monitoring. Normally you wouldn't find PRICE much above the 50 WEEK during a bear, once this thing got going it didn't, same for 2000-2003....until the bear was over. THEN you get the 20 week rising thru a rising 50 week....then you have undisputed BULL MKT in my book and a buy the dip mentality until the bull is dead.
The stock market is an amazing creature has fascinated me for years, and it isnt one that many ever figure out. I know this much, I have avoided HUGE losses during the bear markets, my main goal has been to stay liquid, and because of historical intervention, this BEAR will be one of a SECULAR nature.
And let me add this, Consumer sentiment even from a historical low level tunred down again last report, data points to particularly lows results when asking if major purchases for home, car of appliance was asked
CAN the GOV spending replace the Consumer.....and we call it recovery? Things are SO screwed, there is RAMPANT manipulation, trading by big brothers in front of everyone else, LAX accounting standards skewing bank results, contracting still levels of consumer borrowing and bank lending, stricter loan standards making it harder to get loans, lines of CREDIT being CUT to businesses.....a lot doesn't add up here folks. In 2001 when FED took rates to 1% and held it, the autos and homes were not goosed yet, it had been TECH GLUT and bubble...but we still had HOUSING and AUTOS to goose and boy did they.....what goose we got now?...Gov spending? oh boy!
D
FACETS OF BUBBLE
Doug Noland weekend commentary
>>"The massive expansion of GSE obligations, coupled with a speculative marketplace’s anticipation of yet another major government-induced reflation, severely distorted the marketplace and provided the bedrock for a historic mortgage finance Bubble. Today, the government’s intrusion into the marketplace is greater than ever. The markets readily accommodate a couple Trillion of annual issuance – as if the U.S. economy and Credit system were on solid footing. And I would argue that today’s mispricing of government finance reinforces the market’s perception that U.S. policymakers will successfully reflate the economy. This Bubble distortion, then, fosters a problematic explosion of government debt issuance – and a most dangerous case Minskian “Ponzi finance.” <<
THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH
Duratek
>>"The massive expansion of GSE obligations, coupled with a speculative marketplace’s anticipation of yet another major government-induced reflation, severely distorted the marketplace and provided the bedrock for a historic mortgage finance Bubble. Today, the government’s intrusion into the marketplace is greater than ever. The markets readily accommodate a couple Trillion of annual issuance – as if the U.S. economy and Credit system were on solid footing. And I would argue that today’s mispricing of government finance reinforces the market’s perception that U.S. policymakers will successfully reflate the economy. This Bubble distortion, then, fosters a problematic explosion of government debt issuance – and a most dangerous case Minskian “Ponzi finance.” <<
THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH
Duratek
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