Interesting, unemployment actually dropped to 9.4% ? ONLY 247,000 jobs were lost, much lower than expected? Incomes rose? workweek ticked up .1% but that was from near record low of 33.0, what to make of this?
WHY did Challenger and Christmas report that the "pace of layoffs picked up in July?" and they also say the GOV is grossly under reporting job losses?
MORE:
>>The dip in the unemployment rate - from June's 9.5 percent - was the first since April 2008. One of the reasons the rate went down, however, was because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. Fewer people, though, did report being unemployed.
WEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!! YAHOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! actually what NO ONE will tell you but me, is the level of people leaving the workforce actually increased by 585,000 !!
All told, there were 14.5 million out of work in July. 6.7 MILLION JOBS HAVE BEEN LOST SINCE RECESSION BEGAN!!!! 6.7 MILION FEWER PAYING INTO IRA's......where is all the stock mkt mney coming from ? where will the INCREASE in Consumer Spending come from with 6.7 M fewer putting out.
BANKS:
Banks cap requirements were lowered from $600B to about $75B mostly with stroke of pen, but they KNOW its $600B, hence WONT lend, especialy to consumers, how DO WE GOOSE CONSUMPTION which may break the cycle of deflation?
Banks are currently allowed to keep mortgages on books at 90 cents on $, as if would be held to maturity with NO defaults....IMHO creating the ZOMBIE Bank scenario. ONLY HUGE increase in GDO led by consumer spending may break hold, last report showing big drop in wages/income, and meager increase in spending not a good sign.
OK OK.....let's argue that Recession is OVER. Let's argue the Banks are HEALED. Not what? The stock market has come far, and it has climbed the wall of worry, NOW let's see what it does with this GREAT NEWS.
I'm going to tell you, I don't see the US Consumer, less near 7 MILLION toting the load for all.
ARE BAnks bracing for the NEXT ROUND OF DEFAULTS? from prime borrowers and Commercial Real Estate, from ALt A loans?
ARE stocks worth paying over 24 X eranings currently? THE 10 year in shooting up with this "rosey" scenraio being presented today to above 3.8%, which is a good bit better than yield on SPX 500 dividends at 2.75% !
US $$ is rising modestly this AM. Provision i next years budget for addt'l $1T for banks!
If we dont get real nice GOOSE from Consumer Spending, operational cuts to meet profit targets wil not help additionally and we could fall below current reported $55 a share in earnings, making fair value of SPX below 700, not current 1,000
With the rebuilding of inventories, we might get GDP surprise, I hope the remaiming Consumers can sop it up for the 7 MILLION who can't.....
SPX resistance might be found near current levels, anywhere from 1004-1017.
D
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1 comment:
Going up again, and again and again see you at SPX 1200 by 2010, lets party like its 1999! Biggest rally in US history but still some are afraid to play, so be it you'll be buying my shares at 1200!
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