monthly showing ABC FLAT corrections in gold and U S$ and SPX look very sharp and probable. AND should US $ make a move and giddy up (wont it begin to rise with HUGE bearish consortium) then that would also spell big TROUBLE for the stock markets.
This cannot be held in high prob by too many even with autumn approaching, as MANY (even some of us) have signalled NEW BUL MKT, my signals using 50/200 have never taken this long to trip. Guys, what are the chances we just plow ahead and ignore that V bottom and unlike the 2 or 3 stabs for 2003 bottom which left SPX maybe 5% above lows we get none? not one?
I cannot grasp a new bull in context of 2003 scenario compared to now. Unemployment peaked, housing/finance bubble had not begun, so economy was open to huge stimulus and it created record profits, but we know when you hose kerosine on fire you get a bubble, not balanced economy.
Think of the sources for Consumer spedning destroyed, and the walking dead who have NO money and losing homes, the HUGE unemployed not present in 2003. I WANT recovery, my overall scenario and experience does not line up with what the market is telling me.
In 2003 Economic data DID improve, people got hired back to work quickly, but here we are with NUMBERS WEEKLY STILL OVER 500K !!!! in a consumer led economy how does this match up with EXPANSION OF EARNINGS? (GOV and FED have taken place of consumer)
IT DOES NOT.
WE HAVE PHONEY BANK EARNINGS, so even what is already presented is a lie. (suspension of mark to mkt)
Consumer confidence rebounded quickly in 2003, it is still falling now even with huge mkt rally.
And my TA says new bull mkt WTF!!!
This cannot be held in high prob by too many even with autumn approaching, as MANY (even some of us) have signalled NEW BUL MKT, my signals using 50/200 have never taken this long to trip. Guys, what are the chances we just plow ahead and ignore that V bottom and unlike the 2 or 3 stabs for 2003 bottom which left SPX maybe 5% above lows we get none? not one?
I cannot grasp a new bull in context of 2003 scenario compared to now. Unemployment peaked, housing/finance bubble had not begun, so economy was open to huge stimulus and it created record profits, but we know when you hose kerosine on fire you get a bubble, not balanced economy.
Think of the sources for Consumer spedning destroyed, and the walking dead who have NO money and losing homes, the HUGE unemployed not present in 2003. I WANT recovery, my overall scenario and experience does not line up with what the market is telling me.
In 2003 Economic data DID improve, people got hired back to work quickly, but here we are with NUMBERS WEEKLY STILL OVER 500K !!!! in a consumer led economy how does this match up with EXPANSION OF EARNINGS? (GOV and FED have taken place of consumer)
IT DOES NOT.
WE HAVE PHONEY BANK EARNINGS, so even what is already presented is a lie. (suspension of mark to mkt)
Consumer confidence rebounded quickly in 2003, it is still falling now even with huge mkt rally.
And my TA says new bull mkt WTF!!!
2 comments:
I have a short term stock trading system based on technical indicators. The system is 65-70% accurate over 2002-2009. The point being that technical indicators are not 100% accurate. No stock or stock market goes straight up. There will be corrections.
Is this a new bull market? It has been since March. However, my gut tells me the worst is not over yet. Debt and many other problems have been swept under the carpet.
The buy and hold people are counting on the fundanemrntals catching up to the current run up in stock prices. I think their timing is way off. I think that one very bad event will send the entire market crashing down again.
Could be derivative blow up, banks, a dollar collapse etc. These are unstable times.
I prefer short term trading to buy and hold. However if you park your money in a graet company and are willing to hold on during the roller coaster rides then that may work as well.
The stock market is the largest gambling casino in the world. As Nicholas Davras called it - The Other Las Vegas.
You may be better off just betting on the NY Yankees to win the rest of the games left in the season. Based on backtesting you will have a .632 chance of winning.
Youve done well, too early to call this a new bull mkt, just a maipulated fed induced coma.
YUP, LTBH dead, but agree a few good companies worth holding ut even they will collapse if the bond bubble implodes..at some point reality perserveres.
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