Wednesday, August 26, 2009

PICTURE TELLS A STORY?



Highlights (briefing.com)
Durable goods orders surged 4.9% in July, well above the 3.2% increase predicted by the Consensus. However the headline is very misleading.
The Cash for Clunkers stimulus package was not a driver as motor vehicles and parts orders grew 0.9% after declining 0.2% in June.
Instead, the headline growth number was driven by a colossal increase in nondefense aircraft orders, which grew 107.2%. Aircraft orders are generally highly volatile and growth at this level is not sustainable.
Non-residential investment is again trending down as new order for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.3%. A drop in machinery orders by 6.6% offset a gain in communications equipment orders.
Excluding transportation, new orders increased a very modest 0.8%, slightly less than Consensus.
Shipments, which factor into GDP growth, grew at a nice 2.0% pace and help get Q3 GDP growth off to a nice start. Excluding transportation, shipments grew 2.2%.
The inventory contraction remains a problem as inventories fell 0.8% in July.
The Cash for Clunkers stimulus again posted a mild surprise as auto inventories did not pick up. However, this could have resulted from demand for autos outperforming production. The cause of the inventory decline won't be fully known until the industrial production numbers are released next month.

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