"Stocks Fine for Now but Then Dow Will Crash to 5,000, Says Nenner"

Charles Nenner predicts Dow 5,000


Credit card use is on the decline, as millions of Americans cut up their plastic or get cut off by their credit card companies.

"In the past year, more than eight million consumers have stopped using credit cards, according to TransUnion, a Chicago-based credit researcher. That means 78 million U.S. consumers do not have credit cards, compared to 70 million last year. "

IS THERE RISK IN BOND FUNDS? 99 week of inflows finally broken

BULL MARKET IN BONDS CONTINUES

WORLD IS UPSIDE DOWN

Official recessions ended almost 16 months ago. By 2004-2005 COnsumer confidence PRESENT CONDITIONS rose to 120 (then 140), as you can see PRESENT CONDITIONS reading during this "recovery" is at worst reading of ONLY 20 !

Bullish confidence in the stock market is near 2007 highs, FED funds held at 0% for multiple years...no sign of lifting that easing.....but where are the signs current policies are working?

Today is when 99ers benefits end for 2 million of the long term unemployed unless a vote to extend is successful. Some recovery as many nations in the world who DO NOT have luxury of RESERVE CURRENCY need bailouts.

D

POEM FOR THE DAY

OUT OF DARKNESS
Grey clouds form like a dull sheen on the landscape
Droplets of rain cascade down like tears from a child.

Teeth clench to a bite, lips tight like a zipper
Thoughts in the mind trapped like a miner.

The world is closing in, the air collapsing like a balloon hissing stale oxygen.
The melody of the world has turned discordant like out of tune piano keys.

The harmony once enjoyed has been disturbed and replaced by a melancholy rhapsody.
Like a prize fighter laying on the canvas One must rise to the challenge of sanity.

Brave new worlds can turn ominously into pothole filled streets.
Navigating the ever changing roadmap to happiness, is fraught with wrong turns.

Waiting for a change that never comes leaves one vulnerable to any outcome.
Hunger for a quiet world, one of peace will feed the soul the nourishment it needs.

Pain is what makes you appreciate pleasure ,sadness joy, rain sunshine.
With a deep breath, and a firm hand a path to the light through the fog is visible.

Like a child, one step at a time, one day at a time, one dream at a time, grayness will turn to blue.....it's up to you

Duratek

JPM HAS STALLED

BANKING CONTINUES TO LAG THE MARKETS

HAVE YIELDS TOPPED?

Lower blue support for rally is here, uptrend in danger.

BLAST OF HOT AIR

For goodness sake, can you take another minute of the lies, the BS, the manipulation and this downward spiral we are in?

To me, the talk and pictures of the minions of shoppers running the heck around grabbing at the deals, standing outside for hours, now cyber monday....how everything is turning up roses, getting better......FED got your back, improving economics..it's all BS to me, pure unstrained BS!

I've held it in, but I'm gonna let it rip, so tune me out turn me off if you rather hear some cherry scenario unfold....this ain't the Goldilocks scenario.

Only work construction firms can get nowadays are going into existing space, not making it bigger, or nicer to suit a new tennant, it's to divide it SMALLER, for all the DOWNSIZING....or make it easier to rent....most construction companies home remodeling business has dried up and blown away....only some CRUMBS remain.

Just talked to guy has friend just lost his job, he was architecht for VA firm only 3 years ago had 55 architechts....and did some impressive work, VA not far from DC should be HOT AREA!...can't find work.

Housing market HAS NOT rebounded. 6 of last Recoveries led by Housing! Is manufacturing leading this one? Is banking? Autos? what then? exactly....this recovery talk is a load of crap...anyone with 2 eyes and a piehole has figured that out.

some stats from david rosenberg this am (free edited version available at link)

11 MILLION homeowners are underwater (owe more than house is worth)
2.5 MILLION barely have positive equity of 5% !
There is the shadow inventory of millions more empty properties.
Lots of these foreclosed homes have 2nd liens on them
Median home prices have collapsed at a 30% annual rate last 4 months
Existing home market about as bad as it was in 2009 bottom

We cheer record corp profits, but they got there by CHOPPING HEADS, sitting on cash or buying back stock, or cutting back on investment.....wrong way fred.


Now low interest rates help to transfer money from savers to IN CROWD...WTH?????? 0% on your savings its on sale!! but MSM is preoccupied showing pictures of bag holding shoppers...in more ways than one.

The DROP (BENANKE said wasnt likely nor possible) in HOME VALUES has wiped out TRILLIONS from the American people, in its place we get a FED manipualted stock market rally and they said as much, theres your transperancy.....but mostly avg folk wont be helped by that wealth effect.

MOney managers are sitting on the lowest level of cash in decades at 3.5% they are basically ALL IN.

Investors and hedgies alike are as bullish as near the 2007 top in all kinds of polls.

The GREATEST BAILOUT IN HISTORY was also the GREATEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH IN HISTORY taking the DEBTS from the financials and corrupt corporations which most peddled the fraudulent paper or mismanaged their portfolios (AIG FNM ETC) and handing the debts TO Public sector, the taxpayers...all of it!

And all of it made possible by the threats of financial armageddon if this transfer was not carried out.

There has been NEGLIGABLE benefits to real economy by the FED policies, the housing market lays dormant, construction is dormant, jobs dormant, lending dormant, manufacturing dormant....where is the recovery taking place?

Less bad is not much comfort to those 99'ers in next few days to months losing their liferaft.....what will happen to them?

Many renters are also not paying their rents, home owners not paying their mortgages.....yet banks post near record profits and will pay near record bonuses.....it's all a mystery....or are many banks in real life near or insolvent and a dirty trick is being played on us?

The fact that people will go out and shop for XMAS should come as no surprise, many of these same people bought the houses they couldn't afford and will shop with the mortgage money they won't pay....or with record gov handouts, you dont have record number of people on gov subsidy in the teeth of a real recovery.

Now myself and some of my friends agree that the NUMBER ONE #1 CULPRIT to our woes is THE FEDERAL RESERVE. Their money and interest rate policies have killed us.....like feeding HEROINE to an addict, you feel good for awhile then it takes more and more to feel not quite as good.....then you either go cold turkey and QUIT and start over or you die.

Where the smoke screen is being blown I don't welcome it nor should any of you...enough is enough already

Duratek

Paul Craig Roberts Rant

STENCH OF ECONOMIC DECAY GROWS STRONGER

US $'s INVERSE RELATIONSHIP

AT 80.63 this AM, will be hard for market to RALLY with stronger $.

D

Black Friday Sales Data

QUESTION, Are shoppers done?

BDI And SPX Diverging

Leszek Cichonski - Thanks Jimi

WHAT RECESSION?

BLACK FRIDAY was a comment on the recovery or how cautious shoppers remain?

With most of the people who have lost their jobs in the last 2 years still unemployed or underemployed excuse me if I am skeptical of "we're back to the good ole days". AN increase of shoppers paying in cash not credit was observed, also an increase in shoppers 15-25.

We are at a record for government assistance with more people getting food stamps than any other time in history. Between now and next April almost 4 million jobless will run out of their jobless benefits, if something isn't done $BILLIONS will come out of the economy.

Lots of talk about how we have record company profits, an excuse to buy stocks considering this trend will continue? Think about this, LARGE corporations are benefitting where small businesses are not. Large companies do not need BANK LENDING, they can issue BONDS for their borrowing needs, and have dramatically cut back INVESTMENT, this huge cutback in investment spending means more $'s to count as profit....so when does cautiousness and reduced investment = reasons to cheer corp profits? this combo = little job production.

Small businesses on the other hand cannot access bank credit.....we end up with another jobless recovery....add insult to injury:

Insult to injury is that FED policy of ultra low interest rates and outright asset manipulation send productive $'s overseas where they build productive capacity (but also are stimulating inflation) but here all that got created by the DESTRUCTIVE policies of the Federal Reserve was a housing bubble....a transitory wealth effect that has since blown up and now it takes an ever increasing amount of FED Liquidity to keep the entire US SHIP from sinking...and it ain't working so well.

ULTRA LOW rates have NOT re-stimulated the US housing market which sits at the low end of the worse it ever was.....and the FED has been direct in saying it is "influencing stock market pricing to create wealth effect which will help to create jobs...." but this is pure folly and will end badly and is why I suspect the Bear Market which began in 2000 or maybe even 2007 has much further to run.

AND THE GOV AND FED BLAME CHINA CURRENCY POLICIES? really......easy scapegoat.

If the FED can fool enough people thinking we have a vibrant economy unfolding a bi product might be an instant jolt upward to interest rates.....none of that would be good...the very policy in place right now was to drive long term rates LOWER but instead since QE2 announcement those very rates have risen.

FORCE banks to lend, FORCE savers who get nothing for saving into risky assets like stocks? These are the idiots where our fate is resting, g-d help us all

Duratek

Steve Winwood, Eric Clapton - Can't Find My Way Home

EXPANDING LOANS MEANS EXPANDING EOCNOMY !!

CONSIDER THE $TRILLIONS

WEDGE FORMING ON THE SPX

SHould break on MOnday.

We're Broke howard davidowitz

Poncho Sanchez - Cantaloupe Island (broaden your mind to more)

BETWEEN ROCK AND SWEET SPOT?

Double top above, dashed uptrend line support from 2009 bottom below

FACE OF AMERICA

Mob at MIami's Dolphin Mall

MEANINGLESS

Top Stories (yhoofinance.com)
"Stock futures slip as Europe's debt worries linger- AP
Stocks appear headed for a lower opening in an abbreviated trading session on Wall Street amid lingering uncertainty surrounding Europe's debt troubles. "

WAIT, but yesterday we rallied because these FEARS "subsided"?!! Do you see how rediculous these MSM headlines and commentary is? well it's meaningless.

Now I wake up and force myself to watch 2 minutes of financial TV......."BUY THE DIP....BUY THE DIP" let's see if buyers come in today, in a shortened trading session with sure to be LIGHT VOLUME...isn't everyone standing in line somewhere to spend all their increased pay on a slew of amazing bargains? SHOP TIL YOU DROP....that's what we're good at....."forget all your troubles....downtown.....that's where you want to be....downtown...."

ADJ MONEY BASE largest measure of MONEY continues to contract.

Between Nov 5-12 almost 20 different marget segments made highs and have receeded.....very odd. SOme measures of BULLISHNESS are back to 2007 LEVELS!!! (like my name a CONTRARY indicator)

The US wipe you keester with $ is back above 80.00 on the index this morning....the EURO in freefall, see how some things can act when left for dead and unloved....long way from 89.00 double top.

FED'S reckless gambit of QE has shown without doubt NOT to stimulate economy, just banksters pockets......it's only a matter of time that IF the REAL ECONOMY is not improving like they'd have us believe this will all fall apart IMHO

D

Nigel Farage: 'Who the Hell do You Think You Are: The Euro Game Is Up!'

CURRENT STOCK RALLY IS BUT A MIRAGE....FOOLS GOLD!

ONE YEAR OLD WARNING DIVERGENCE

LOOKING FOR CLUES

FOLLOW THE BOUNCING RENKO

When I see a RED RENKO appear, I won't have any doubt the claws are out, IMHO that would take about a 10% decline to appear, with VIX under 20 and in downtrend, that is only speculation for now and cyclical bull is still intact. Highs from April still not pierced. COnsolidation of rally or hitting the FIB retrace levels almost to a T?

D

OUTFLOWS CONTINUE

Zero hedge asks WHO IS BUYING THE MARKET?

TRADING RANGE

"BUY MORE STOCKS"

Zombies take shortcut to their brokers to buy more stocks

D

REAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE POLL ABC

"Consumer confidence hangs stubbornly in the deep red heading into Black Friday, signaling significant challenges for retailers at the start of the holiday shopping season.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -47 on a scale of -100 to +100, the same as at this time last year and just 5 points from its worst ever in a Black Friday week, -52 in 2008. (The nearly 25-year-old index hit its record low, -54, a week later.)"

Headline "NEW HOME SALES UNEXPECTEDLY DECLINE"

Friends, on WHAT PLANET is this chart a recovery!!!????? OMG!!! I am so tired of the chic bloggers saying we got "zombie Bears" "give it up we got a recovery"....my ass we do!

D

EXISTING HOME SALES FALL, BUT BETTER JOBLESS CLAIMS

"Existing home sales fell 2.2% in October to 4.43 million. The drop was in-line with the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 4.42 million homes sold.

With income and employment moving in the positive direction, existing home sales probably have reached a bottom and will not trend much lower. However, there are still many factors that are contributing to downside pressures.

The most problematic issue continues to be tight lending constraints which are keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. Even though mortgage rates fell to a record low of 4.23% in October, many buyers simply do not have the credit necessary to obtain lending or the funds necessary to meet higher down payment requirements."

* Tight lending, most don't have high enough credit ratings, or home equity...." Claims fell to low 400,000 level and the recent trend has been one of falling claims....is it seasonal holiday hiring of low paying service sector retail jobs? I think so.

Futures are triple digit green, snap your fingers and now Europe isn't a problem....on one day off the next...expect low volume ramp....bullish holiday bias.

That's it for me today...enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday....enjoy family....best wishes to all my readers.

D

HEADING TO ZERO?

FED'S real fear.

College Graduates in Shock, Regarding Sudden Disappearance of Good Jobs

SICK JUSTICE

Corporate Profits Were the Highest on Record Last Quarter

"CATHERINE RAMPELL, On Tuesday November 23, 2010, 3:22 pm EST

The nation’s workers may be struggling, but American companies just had their best quarter ever.

American businesses earned profits at an annual rate of $1.66 trillion in the third quarter, according to a Commerce Department report released Tuesday. That is the highest figure recorded since the government began keeping track over 60 years ago, at least in nominal or non-inflation-adjusted terms.

Corporate profits have been going gangbusters for a while. Since their cyclical low in the fourth quarter of 2008, profits have grown for seven consecutive quarters, at some of the fastest rates in history."

*note Financial LOSSES from crisis OFF THE BOOKS for most (change in mark to mkt accounting by GAO in March 2009!) companies so profits in the SPX represented by any false recording make this a sham, IMHO

Somethng just doesn't sound right to me.....is it the FALLING value of $ when revenue is counted makes the overseas sales SEEM much stronger than they are?

With maybe 8 MILLION having lost jobs how can remaining do all that heavy lifting? GOV HANDOUTS ....which are set to be lost by 4-5 MILLION thru next April.....

D

US $'s highest close since Sept 79.68

WHat's bad for the Euro is good for the $. Korean strife caused a jump in gold even with stronger $.

VIX under 22, I don't see the FEAR. Some bullish polls ramped up between 93%-98% bullish....at 2009 lows was only 2%. When EXTREMES are reached usually not a bad sign for taking sides.....2% bulls didn't leave many left who didn't think the appocalypse had arrived.....now all is but forgotten.....and I wonder if so how the Santa rally and January effect will play out this year....usually bullish.

Even if 2.5% GDP (rear view looking) is real, we need 4% or better to grow jobs, and that's a drop from over 5% year ago....and most of it is inventory building, that will begin to have reverse effect going forward.

You tell me dear peope where the economic hot spot is....where is it?

D

3 HEADLINES FROM INO

Today's News
Norwegian Economy Shrinks Unexpectedly In Q3
1 minute ago

The Norwegian economy contracted unexpectedly in the third quarter due to a substantial slowdown in oil and gas extraction. Planned maintenance on several oil fields reduced oil and gas extraction in the third quarter. Data showed that petroleum activities and ocean transport plunged 10.2%, following a 2.4% drop in the second quarter.

Canadian Inflation Up 2.4% In October
6 minutes ago

Rising prices at the pump helped fuel Canadian inflation last month, as overall consumer prices rose slightly more than economists expected in October, official data revealed Tuesday. Economists were looking for consumer prices to rise 2.2% on an annual basis, following an unrevised 1.9% increase in September.

South Africa's Economic Growth Moderates In Q3
8 minutes ago

South Africa's economic growth slowed unexpectedly in the third quarter led by a fall in manufacturing activity, latest figures showed Tuesday. Growth eased for a second straight quarter. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector declined 5% during the three-month ending September, partly due to lower production in the motor vehicle, parts and accessories and other transport equipment, the statistical office said.

TOPSY TURVEY

LONDON (AP) --" World markets fell sharply Tuesday as investors worried that Ireland's debt crisis will spread to other financially weak European countries and following news that North Korea had fired dozens of artillery rounds into South Korea's territory."

*One day they are worried, next day relieved, then worried again...isn't this all some BS? The markets are gamed for the insiders. revised GDP at 8:30.

My thoughts on what kind of market we are in. A cyclical bull mkt, not yet showing divergence in advanc decline line usually seen at market tops, but we did get a 90% DOWN volume day right after the recent spike to new reaction highs and maybe a blow off top. Reaching extremes again in investor bullishness.

AS I showed with Decision pt chart, if you followed link, we MAY be in that consolidation phase, now lasting 10 years.....but IMHO not enough has nearly been done to set stage for another ride like began in 1980's....where even I would let my stash ride for years and years.

Don't have and didnt have stock valuations nor dividend yields at 2009 or 2003 bottoms that are consistant with other MAJOR BEAR BOTTOMS. Cash on hand in mutual funds usually near 10% but now near historic lows of around 3.5% (no fire power all in! MUST SELL stocks if get large redemptions). DEBT levels are very high and in some cases still near historic levels well above what has ever been seen (total credit mkt debt as % of GDP)......Because of accounting rule change, bank profits appear healthier than they really are, and IMHO that means SPX profits are being exagerated and are not reliable.

Surely the last consolidation phase led to new secular trends, but the path followed is no guarantee this time around.

This so called RECOVERY also does not look like the avg of last 8 that came before, not by a long shot.

D

BANKING SECTOR SENDING OUT A WARNING?

End of Liberty

RALLY IN RATES MAY BE OVER

"NO MATTER WHICH WAY IT GOES"

YOU DECIDE http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/11/secular-status.html

Corporate Cash Horde Fuel Recovery? from B'more Sun

WHERE 2 NOW?

We will watch double top, 400 WEEK support, uptrend line as drawn and VIX. We are also at 618 FIB.....THE TOP? not much to go on yet for that call....would "like" (not as in happy) to see weakening advance decline lines well in advance of that call....

D

COMMENTARY IN CHARTS

Has this been a 2 week candlestick test of major resistance or blowoff top based on FIB retrace levels reached?

BDI is diverging in weakness vs stocks.

Transports are a few hundred points from ALL TIME HIGHS!

SInce 2009 while the market has returned amazing gains, where the transports have doubled and gotten near a pittance from all time highs, where the Federal Reserve is under attack, sovereign countries near default and need bailout, 8 million remain unemployed and 4 million face loss of benefits, possible gridlock in congress and all other assorted mess......most investors never believed in this mess and stayed in bonds.

We can have opinions but when stock market gives a buy signal like it did in 2009, one has to put down the paper, turn their heads away from carnage and think about taking what is being given and listen to voice of the market.....and taking your emotions OUT of your investing decisions may take a lifetime of efforts.

If I had share one of my proprietary signals which measures price and fear of losses and said

"its time to NIBBLE" would anyone have followed? How do you trust anyone's opinion?

And that for me as well is a very good question. AFter years of reserach I understand market technical language, and I know which subs and experts worth listening to. I LOVE Lowry's service because they have no opinion , just data and historical references....they just follow the naked supply and demand.

In the end it just comes down to that....as do most everything for prices.

AS far as all the fundamental data and stories and opinion I offer, they don't have to effect prices, right away anyhow.....they offer backdrop.....well before hand....before the worst of any decline appears....I SHOULD see it on my technical data and charts....of which I will continue to rely on way more than my what my heart says....

Currently I still feel market is ripe for continued weakness....until previous highs are taken out....but far from certain whether the 618 FIB reached in SPX will remain an obbstacle.

Duratek

THE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO

One of my friends said "you are cheering for a depression". I most definately NOT.....and I'm not a "died in the wool bear" either.

I bring out to light a lot of things you wont read or hear about, all of which are true and can effect us. I add in some TA to seek trend, which has been up in this "cyclical bull mkt"....I have said can higher.....

I have talked enough about what is wrong, what might be right?

Well, the optimistic scenario would call for CB and FED actions, gov policies and stimulus will get a churning of sorts.....a treading water until the bad things, excesses get worked off enough, any way somehow by magic whatever.......that sooner than later we can reset the economy ans bring about sustained growth.....which would in turn get companies to hire.....if slack in economy is eaten up....companies would decide things are less uncertain and begin to use that HORDE of cash we keep hearing about.

Maybe interest rates can be kept LOW, and it really does revive economy. Maybe Consumers can save enough, pay down enough debt to resume normal spending patterns.....maybe Banks are really solvent and begin lending again to businesses.

I see lots of restaurants and pubs busy on weekends, I see the Ravens stadium full of fans, sellouts each game, no empty seats......

I'll leave it there, no counter argument.....have nice weekend.

D

GNARLS BARKLEY - WHO'S GONNA SAVE MY SOUL LIVE ON ABBEY ROAD

We don't the music, it chooses us.

I stress that all of us become educated as to what the powerful and connected are pulling off, the greatest transfer of wealth in history....and they're getting away with it.....and Saddling the American people with a lifetime of debt while THEY sip CHAMPAGNE.

BUT....we can't let this reality, this shooting star of light blind us to the good out there......stressful as life can be, aware of things as we might be.....we cannot let it bring US DOWN!

Together with our families and our friends, we will persevere....we will NOT LOSE OUR DIGNITY....or our inherent optimism.

Duratek

SAT MORNING POST

From the Editors of American Banker
"Ross-Led Group Lands One of Week's Three Failures
It was a busy week in banking for private-equity financier Wilbur L. Ross Jr.

After announcing earlier this week that his W.L. Ross & Co. plans to invest $45 million into the struggling Cascade Bancorp in Bend, Ore., another bank in his portfolio picked up one of the three banks that failed Friday.

The three failures, which had a combined $969.4 million in assets, are expected to cost the Deposit Insurance Fund $200 million. The Friday failures brought the total number of banks to fail this year to 149."

INSIDER TRADING PROBE.....will they finally get some banksters?

GLOBAL YIELDS ON THE RISE weekend Credit Bubble Report

"Our policymakers are acting to the detriment of our Creditors. They speak in a tone that does not inspire confidence and may likely antagonize. The Chinese, in particular, can be counted on to act in what they perceive as their own best interest."

IN AN NUTSHELL

By policies like TARP, POMO, and QE the powers have managed to TRANSFER the debt of the banks to the PEOPLE.....greatest wealth transfer in history....and as my last article outlines it appears that during this time of great crisis and pain for the American people, our COngress has managed to see their financial conditions improve substantially. I find it interesting that the majority that serve us are MILLIONAIRES and know nothing about us....hope you're OK with that.

D

CURIOUSLY WEAK

THEY DO NOT REPRESENT US

......."Despite a long and deep recession, the collective personal wealth of congressional members increased by more than 16 percent between 2008 and 2009, according to a study released Wednesday by the Center for Responsive Politics.

The study also indicates that a significant number of members owned shares of major players in the health-care and financial-services sectors, which were the subject of major reform legislation during the period.

The findings-based on federal financial disclosure data released earlier this year-paint a wealthy bunch in Congress, with more than half of all members-261-were millionaires.

About one in five of those had average calculated wealth in 2009 of at least $10 million. Eight of the 261 were in the $100 million-plus range"

If you wonder why we continually feel the shaft of the sword, look no further than HERE as to WHO represents YOU in Congress.....excuse me I am getting dry heaves...

D

BERNANKE ON DEFENSIVE

WASHINGTON (AP) --" Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is seeking to defuse criticism of the Fed's $600 billion bond-purchase plan by arguing that it's needed to boost the economy and reduce unemployment. But he warns the Fed's program can't succeed on its own.

In a speech prepared for delivery on Friday, Bernanke makes his most forceful case to date that Congress also must provide more stimulus aid.

Without more stimulus, high unemployment could persist for years, he says in the speech, his first since the Fed announced the program Nov. 3. But in making that argument, Bernanke risks heightening complaints that he's plunging the Fed into partisan politics."

also

WASHINGTON (AP) -- "More than half of the 1.4 million homeowners who enrolled in the Obama administration's flagship foreclosure-prevention program have fallen out.

The program is intended to help those at risk of foreclosure by lowering their monthly mortgage payments. But the latest report from the Treasury Department shows that the effort is still plagued by high failure rates.

Approximately 755,000 borrowers, or 54 percent of those who tried to get their payments lowered through the program, have been cut loose through October. That compared to a 53 percent disqualification rate through September. "

BOND VIGILANTES RIDE AGAIN

BARONS ARTICLE LINK HERE

FLIP SIDE OF EXUBERANT MARKET OPTIMISM

WHEN GOOD MAY BE BAD LINK HERE

WHY ALL THE FED HUFFING AND PUFFING?

NEARING DEFLATIONARY LEVELS CPI and gov jaw boning..... sales of exitsing homes have fallen all the way back to near the lowest levels of 2009....but cheer the stock market...

D

IT AIN'T UNTIL IT'S OVER "FORECLOSURE GATE"

NEW YORK (AP) --" Foreclosure-fraud class action lawsuits are starting to pile up against major banks across the U.S., threatening a besieged industry with billions more in potential losses.

Bank executives are swarming Capitol Hill this week to defend themselves against multiple foreclosure-related investigations, including one by all 50 state attorneys general. Talks are under way in that probe in hopes of reaching a settlement, but that wouldn't extinguish the mounting threat of an avalanche of class actions. "

FUTURES POINT TO TRIPLE DIGIT GAINS

BERLIN (AP) --" The euro is higher against the dollar as European officials work on addressing Ireland's banking woes and a possible rescue plan for the country.

The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.3607 before settling back to $1.3586 in Europe early Thursday -- still above the $1.3522 it bought in New York late Wednesday.

The European Union has held off so far on an Irish rescue plan, but representatives of the EU, the European Central Bank and IMF were traveling to Dublin to examine the government's and banks' accounting books.

Across the Atlantic, U.S. economic reports on Wednesday showed a troubled housing market and low inflation.

In other trading, the British pound rose to $1.5922 from $1.5899. The dollar slipped to 83.22 Japanese yen from 83.28 yen. "

*It's all about perceptions, direction of currencies, flow of funds. On top of that we have (drum roll) GM is BACK!!!! (meaning GOV and INSIDERS CASH OUT! BIG) you can get piece (at mkt price) of the company that got bailed out and is near debt free by defaulting on its debt as bond holders were wiped out....now they get to sell you MILLIONS of shares at $30 plus a piece??!! so the expected mkt cap will be something like $50BILLION? such a deal......novel idea they can now make money on each car sold instead of losing money....set adrift were health care expenses and many other UNION gimmees...leaner, meaner....and you can have it. The gov is just biding time to blow out its remaining 400 M shares.

Forgotten today perhaps will be the housing market both commercial and residential. Gone will be thw worries about jobs, inflation or lack of. Today should be a glorious day, time to forget all our troubles as if they just vanished

D

BRIEF RESPITE

The $ rally may have more leg to it if EURO ZONE issues continue, would put pressure on US stocks. $ has been consolidating and has made NO NEW LOW since 2008. But a double top also is seen....

Tuesday was a confirmed 90% down volume day, classified as HEAVY selling, and volume picked up by almost 46% on the decline. Today's WEAK rally attempt plays into the scenario of a 2-7 rally with no firm bottom in place.

GM becomes a publicly traded company again, the GOV will sell us back 400 Million shares at $33 or so a piece. It will still be a majority shareholder and would need to sell its remaining huge stake above $50 a share to get back all it put in....even public it is still Government Motors. Did the Gov do the right thing by bailing out GM?

"WHY THE FED'S 'TRICKLE DOWN ECONOMICS' IS FAILING"

Charles Hugh Smith if you're interested in understanding WHY the FEd's policies are not impotent but harmful and are further impoverishing the people, then read this.

Duratek

HUGH SMITH READS

QE EASING IS NOT WORKING BECAUSE? oftwominds blog

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE A "SLOW MOTION CLIFF DIVE"

WHEN JUDGING ANY HOUSING RECOVERY

...keep this chart in perspective. And recent rise in rates will not help!

ALERT AM DATA

SEPT revised lower to 588,000 from 610,000 (more games)

OCT fell to 519,000 !!! ("experts" looking for 600K)

If you look at not updated chart that would be equal to worst of the crisis......some recovery

D

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS PLUMMET

WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 17, 2010) — "The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 12, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 14.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The results do not include an adjustment for Veterans Day. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15.0 percent compared with the previous week."

ALL it took was a .2% increase in mortgage rates....that is how fragile the market place is. EURO troubles can cause unexpected US $ strength, weakness in commodities and US markets.

Yesterdays decline registered as a 90% plus down volume day, another in a aseries of historic volatility in 2010. Usually this is followed with a rally attempt for 2-7 days, I don't expect much, lows not in place yet for stronger ST bounce IMHO
D

TRIPLE DIGIT DECLINE

Was it JUST a trip back to the rising 50 SMA? we'll soon find out. Fears of ASIAN inflation, IRISH default and CALIF default all floating around out there.

Market was ripe for pullback, now we'll monitor what is behind it.

FED Announces QE 2 follow up, or PART 2 "BUY MORE STOCKS"

QE 2 AT WORK

FED'S AIM was to lower rates?.......aim about as good as a stew bum and a urinal.

D

"BUFFETT DUMPS HOME DEPOT HOLDINGS"

"Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), the Omaha, Neb., company run by the billionaire investor, sold its entire Home Depot stake in the third quarter, according to a filing Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission."

CAT OUT OF BAG?

It's hard to argue that yields are doing what few have expected considering the FED'S pronouncements of its buying intentions QE2 and desire to keep YIELDS LOW.....I still think the market expereinced some type of blowoff top last week and to this point selling interest has not perked up appreciably.....that can change. Bullish polls lopsided bullish a contrary data point.

D

SAFE HAVEN?

Beware Municpal debt funds what good is yield if principal melts away?

D

QE2 Sends Interest Rates Up. Yes, Up!

QE2 Sends Interest Rates Up. Yes, Up!

BEWARE THE "CLIFF"

A John Hussman read son-of-a-gun that QE2 video I made is near 8,000 views now..how cool is that.

D

"HAS QE2 TURNED COUNTER PRODUCTIVE?"

PrudentBear.com Credit Bubble Report 10 and 30 yr yields, and in general yields have turned higher....NOT what was intended

Duratek

Shocking Video Unearthed Democrats in their own words Covering up the Fa...

Is anything here made up? whay should Americans have faith in many of those elected?

'Bernanke bad for US, Fed head's plan kills recovery'

Remember OBAMA gave this schnook another term!!! outragious....

D

Quantitative Easing Explained

Long but actually amusing but accurate

D

GNARLS BARKLEY - WHO'S GONNA SAVE MY SOUL LIVE ON ABBEY ROAD

BE AMAZED AT THE POWER OF MUSIC! Damn this is hot!

MARKET SPITS A HAIRBALL

Current sell off channel with (red) top R. I think this correction could have further to go, but there was NO sign of panic today

D

(OT for STEVE)Dire Straits - Once Upon A Time In The West + lyrics

WHY IS THIS MAN SMILING?

??????? US out on an island and LOSING world dominance and influence

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- "Leaders of 20 major economies on Friday refused to back a U.S. push to make China boost its currency's value, keeping alive a dispute that raises fears of a global trade war amid criticism that cheap Chinese exports are costing American jobs."

ADJUSTED MONEY BASE YR/YR CHANGE. FRIDAY AM MARKET TALK

EuroZONE growth slows to a crawl

Quite dramatic right? So many are chasing the INFLATION trade, the money in the banking system is not being lent, it is being HORDED, and until it gets into the economic system, until REAL DEMAND and CONSUMPTION increases and loan demand rises......this chart argues for the definition of inflation. We aren't in a period as 70's (NO Chinese manufacturing power) of TOO MANY DOLLARS CHASING TOO FEW GOODS...we have tons of SLACK in manufacturing.

YES, in theory the FED has increased the amount of money grossly but it mostly sits idle as excess reserves, certainly should it get into economy as hoped for inflation could occur. *(they are trying to pay off yesterdays DEBTS with todays OUT OF THIN AIR NEW $'S)

The FED policies and gamble have failed, and have diverted precious resources away from where it is most needed, almost all efforts guided to financial sector and GOV debt.

Are we healing? are we past a period like 1930? or are we topping like 1930 and the worst of stock market decline is ahead of us?

Instead of Tariffs and restraint of trade as was case in 1930, we now have currency wars and Chinese currency valuations have allowed China to dominate world manufacturing.....

In this open "FREE" forum I cannot TELL you what to do, and in any case I am just expressing my OPINION on all matters and I could be dead wrong....even the best prognosticators can turn from Nostradomus to (not orig) Nostradumbass. (mostly that would be Bernanke)

Bottom Line? I am in a VERY DEFENSIVE POSTURE, I AM TAKING NO CHANCES HERE. I AM NOT CHASING YIELD NOR THE MARKET....I SEE BUBBLES EVERYWHERE, I SEE TROUBLE.

Calling a TOP especially THE TOP is difficult, I was able to do it in 2000 and again in 2007 because of the sideways movement of SPX while other things deteriorated enough to give me a signal technically and logically (real estate and banking stress).....I can smell a bubble....current situation is a SNIFFARAMA.

CHINA MKT (OUT OF BLUE?) fell 5% overnight! Worries about inflation and further measures that might be taken to stem inflation....slowdown in the Chinese economy would have ripple effects around the globe.....COULD impact commodity prices.....we will be watching carefully.

A lot of important calls cannot be made ON THE FLY and may come early, or after the fact.....better to make call in 2008 just before worst drop then wait for 2009? MY call in 2007 was as good as anyone who was warning.....and its on my site where all posts are available for inspection....YES I believe I can do it again.

FOR ME PERSONALLY......I am not LTBH in this environment of manipulation and failed policies.....stocks in general are not for me here, but that wouldn't stop me from trading for profits....day to day on a variety of areas including direction of yields. The introduction of ETF'S allow lots of options on playing either side of almost anything.

I DO NOT see VALUATIONS as ATTRACTIVE, too much emphasis is made on relation to stocks and bond yields especially when rates are forcibly held LOW. This is causing all kinds of distortions.....I have shown previous how BANK LOANS OUTSTANDING continue to DECLINE....and IMHO the Kondratief WAVE is in WINTER MODE and you must be very careful how you play this.

I think the most recent move by the FED and its assertion PUBLICALLY they are "targeting asset price reflation" is being seen as reason to buy, to be hopeful....crazy me I see it as DESPERATION and find it very troubling indeed. WHat do you get when you mix the most intervention of any Recession by FED and GOV with the weakest recovery in history? TROUBLE

Duratek

NEED A CLUE?

"THE GREAT BANK ROBBERY"

ANother good find at zerohedge.com all this makes your stomach turn....we just sit here and take it

D

NOT ALWAYS GOOD IDEA TO RUN AFTER YIELD

KD site link not too many places to hide....

D

John Taylor: "The Collapse Of Europe Has Begun, The Euro Will Trade Like The Lira In A Few Months"

John Taylor: "The Collapse Of Europe Has Begun, The Euro Will Trade Like The Lira In A Few Months"

CSCO AIR POCKET

“We have a couple of pockets that we have to fly through,” Mr. Chambers said.

Orders from state governments fell 25 percent compared with a year ago and were 48 percent lower than the previous quarter. Orders from cable operators fell 35 percent from a year ago.

Cisco’s financial performance is considered an important bellwether of corporate technology spending because the company has a broad base of customers. Cisco’s main business is making equipment for telecommunications networks and for routing Internet traffic, though in recent years it has pushed into consumer electronics."

60 Minute CHART CLOSE UP OF MARKET ACTION

*click to enlarge

BLOW OFF TOP OR REST?

$trillions have been spent, money created out of thin air, dropped from helicopters......where has it landed and what has it done?

The GOV stimulus efforts were weak and not focused well and not targeted to have maximum effect. Instead of projects or tax cuts to get into economy immediately and into pockets of workers, the money went into Roosevelt style shovel projects, too spread out over time to have even limited results....and the amount vs a $14T economy were miniscule.

How about the FED? $2 TRILLION effort, with another $600B coming or more.....going into buying US GOV DEBT! to manipulate rates lower.....so far the 10 and 30 and rates in general have not fallen further and some have broken OUT to UPSIDE especially 30 yr. (buying opp?)

Money has gone DIRECTLY TO THE BANKS, FINANCIALS....and from there directly into stocks....commodities and foreign markets have been stimulated. We keep hearing about "we have STRONG DOLLAR POLICY"...but we know they are trying to pay OLD debt with NEW DOLLARS.

It seems to me the FED has DIVERTED money AWAY from the economy to the financials......LARGE COMPANIES appear to be doing well, reporting profits.....mostly from head chopping and cost cutting.

SMALL BIZ confidence and Consumer confidence remain fragail and display the weakest improvement from Recession readings ever on record......some jobs but not enough even to take care of new entrants into job market...what about the 8 million? the 99'ers? some data looks better ONLY because so many more have DROPPED OUT LOOKING and are not counted....those in power can make the data appear any way they need to....trying to hide the ugly reality....that their efforts and policies have mostly only helped those who had a large hand in creating this crisis.

AS gold rises to the sun, will the newly minted paper be burned to ashes? Not only do problems and imbalances remain, and maybe only time heals, but thanks to ill concieved policies new ones are being birthed.

Duratek

DOES BDI CORRELATE WELL WITH TRANSPORT INDEX?

It has until recently

ANOTHER LOOK AT BALTIC DRY INDEX vs DOW

LIP SEVRVICE

Both short term and long term yields have jumped higher after QE2 officially was announced. Today FED officials talking down the INFLATIONARY effects of the new programs.

(AP STORY)

"The Treasury Department said Wednesday that last month's deficit totaled $140.4 billion" *we're headed fro another $trillion plus deficit.

"the Fed announced it planned to pump an additional $600 billion into the financial system over the next eight months in an effort to boost a sluggish economic recovery"

My argument has been HOW DOES this " boost economy"? asnwer it doesn't.

Can you believe this? one FED governor " Fisher, speaking on Fox Business Network, also said Fed officials want to make sure the dollar retains its purchasing power. He votes on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee next year."

SUckers rally?

"In the worst-case scenario, investors could find themselves in what David Rosenberg, strategist and economist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, calls a "sucker's rally."

"[A]ll we know is that these Fed-led asset cycles end in tears, and few manage to get out early enough because greed is an emotion that may go comatose in a brutal bear market but it never fully expires," Rosenberg wrote in a note to investors. "In other words, quantitative easings are no antidote for structural economic problems, even if they manage to give investors a short-term sugar high."

There already were signs that the rally is sputtering, with the market negative on consecutive days for the first time since September and uncertainty prevailing over European sovereign debt.

HOW DID THIS "GUY" GET ANOTHER TERM FROM OBAMA!!??

Ron Paul: End the Fed, Legalize Competing Currencies!

Bernanke Lies Under Oath re: Monetizing Debt

But indeed.....they are...they will, and they have been manipulating the stock market.....helping everything but the avg Joe and economy.

D

A PATH TO FOLLOW

I've met a lot of "new" people recently, so I want to again quickly summarize with a few key links for MUST READ material. If you read the commentary at the links I provide, you WILL understand more what is being done to us.

Daniel Amerman "Difference between QE1 and QE2"

John Mauldin "Thoughts on Liquidty Trap"

Doug Noland "QE2" SUmmary at end of commentary.

IRELAND'S CRISIS

INvestors DUMPING BONDS when they lose faith........

D

SPX DIVIDEND YIELD NEAR 2% !

Link to DIVIDEND YIELD ANALYSIS The TOP in 2000 has yield near 3% ! bottoms made whn yield closer to 6% as in 1980's

In case you missed (can happen when I post a BLIZZARD of comments and charts....)

John Mauldin piece includes commentary from John Hussman thoughts on "liqudty trap"

IN a nutshell, if you observe my most recent chart of Bank Loans, you can clearly see they have been on steady decline, lowering rates or attempting to do so by the FED in an environment of already historic low rates and continued SLACK DEMAND is a FOOLS GAME.

Hussman " The FED has now placed itself in a position where small changes in its announced policy could have disastrous effects on a whole range of financial markets. THIS IS NOT SOUND ECONOMIC THINKING BUT MISGUIDED TINKERING WITH THE STABILITY OF THE ECONOMY."

And as John goes on to explain, REAL MONEY (gold and silver) rally mightily when 3 month treasuries dive below the CPI.......

I ask you, what good is LOW interest rates if demand is not there for the loans, companies do not see investment opportunities and we have much SLACK in manufacturing?

You get a LOPSIDED investment landscape where there is barely any safe YIELD to be found. Now remember MOST avg people are trying to A) SAVE and B) pay down debt........but the FED is saying NO....you will not be paid for savings, and we will fight you and drag you from under your savings rock and FORCE you into RISKY assets.

Excuse me, if me this unknown writer disagrees with all these connected, smart people.....that somethng is horribly wrong and imbalanced AGAIN!

Hiding banking losses with an accounting change (right near the March 2009 lows!) doesn't seem like it's made a real difference in the economy except for those who get great joy of recieving BONUSES based on earnings that may not be there.

Duratek

SELLING RETURNS

81% DOwn volume TUES was hint selling came back into the market, this increases the potential for more short term losses, the US $ inexplicably has rallied in the ST.

Rates on the 10 and 30 yr bonds have been rising, this is not what the FED's end game is about, makret forces in the ST are exerting themselves......housing has been senistive to even miniscule increases in mortgage rates, this development is a net negative.

D

EFFECTS OF FED AND GOV POLICIES

that good huh? The FED is going to lose its credability, well it's certainly on the line....it's all in...with the bluff

D

VELOCITY OF MONEY IN THE U.S. IS NOT HEALTHY

SO WE SHOULD THROW MORE GS ON THE FIRE?

What happened last time debt topped out? this recent top is MAGNATUDES higher.......Bernanke was "student of 1930's"

Ziggy Marley: True to Myself

ALERT: Mystery Missile Launch Seen off Calif. Coast 11/09/2010

WEDGE PATTERN BREAKOUT

and TEST.....buy signal given at dashed line and new uptrend support line in play....just an ob.

SCRATCH HEAD

Announcement of addt'l FED bond purchases not holding down yields...30 yr at 4.2%. EVEN SLIGHT upticks in yields have had nasty effects on the patient.

I'm getting feeling we are already back into contraction mode.

D