TIM WOOD BEAR BULL MARKET REALTIONSHIPS

"The bottom line is that the bull market advance that began in 1974 ran 33 years and consisted of eight 4-year cycles with a total advance of 2,385%. Note that this advance has been roughly double the previous bull market advance, in terms of the percentage move out of the low in which the bull market began. At present, we are seeing the ongoing rally that should prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of what should prove to be a bear market of approximately 10 to 12 years duration. To think that a 33-year bull market was corrected in a mere 17 months simply has no historical basis. Based on the historical bull and bear market relationships, this bear market is expected to run some 33 to 37 percent of the duration of the preceding bull market. If so, with the bull market having lasted some 33 years in duration, a typical bear market relationship would last some 10 to 12 years, which, based upon the 2007 top, would take such a decline into 2017 to 2019. I will discuss other aspects of the bull and bear markets including phasing and values in the next post here in a couple of weeks."