TIMING DIFFICULT, END NOT IN DOUBT

I love a rally, especially when I'm in one......never before has one been like a surfer on the BIG ONE......riding along in that tunnel like on a tsunami wave......he better not slip...THE END of folly will come like a thief in the night with near EVERYONE LONG, margined to the hilt, leveraged beyond imagination, all expecting only ONE OUTCOME
.....bullishness at extremes = to prior THE TOPS......perfect storm is set up...

Listening to CNBC all good news is good, all bad news can be explained away. Here we are 2 years into recovery, 90% stock market gains, in some cases a DOUBLE in 2 years! (record) and yet we still get 450K prints on jobless claims with 4 WEEK moving avg vaulting 14,000 to 428K?!

$14 TRILLION in debt already, so add in $1.5 TRILLION for 2011, what happens if interest rates begin to rise even more? FED SAYS rates have risen since QE 2 (and QE 1 for that matter) YET they leave rates at 0% because "economy is weak, not growing jobs" which one is it?

RECORD leverage has a way of unwinding, what sets it off I am not sure, but the move down will be sudden and it will be violent and swift and catch most everyone by surprise.

At this point ALL players are bullish, all calling for big 2011, cash in the hands of money managers at all time lows.....the table is set IMHO.

Could be another sovereign crash of muni hiccup? or a sudden RISE in yields long term? I'm making my call....IMHO if ANY rally remaining, it is one to be sold into and CASH should be raised.

I could be early......but I don't think I'm wrong. It may FEEL better, some stats are better......some companies doing OK maybe even well.....but it all rides on a TIDE OF FED LIQUIDITY that seems endless....where did the cash come from for the FED to raise their stash from $800 B to over $2 TRILLION in just last 2 years?

DID we only take months to repiar damage done over the decade?

IF 2007, as it was NEW ALL TIME HIGH was TOP of bull market, not 2000.....16 months does not correct it, history tells me that....we're in PHASE II of the BEAR......I wish it would end there. Prepare yourself, raise cash levels, diversify our of the more speculative issues....and get ready for what not many expect is coming...all IMHO of ocurse.

LONG LIVE THE FED...creating money, ponzinomics, deceit, and piling MORE DEBT on top of historic levels is the answer....

D