Friday, August 26, 2011
GDP
Q2 GDP came out to a revised 1%. How it even got to that may be a mystery, but WAIT. Hold onto your hats, the FED BERNANKE is speaking out his hole, I mean at Jackson hole today at 10 and SURELY this gifted man and speaker will lift the markets and assure us he has our back!
I have had personal experience with people who say " I have your back bro!" and well that didn't turn out too good.
D
I have had personal experience with people who say " I have your back bro!" and well that didn't turn out too good.
D
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
"DURABLE GOODS BEATS ESTIMATES"
D
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Monday, August 22, 2011
S&P 500 HANGING ON BY A THREAD
The ledge for me is that 1118-1119 neckline, that gives way down to 1100 and who knows below that. I have been warning that you should use the rally to sell into and raise cash....others seem to be doing that...confidence is shaken.
There are no quick easy solutions to the problems. The FED has made things worse and has no answers. GOLD just under $1,900 screams panic....much more so than in 2009. Didn't Cramer say to buy Ford at $16? It's $10 now, for the life of me, I don't know why anyone listens to that snake oil dude.
Weekend shows here continue to reccomend buying stocks, "great deals....." none of these idiotic knuckleheads say to raise cash, not one. What passes for radio, of course it must be PAID air time for their financial company which has as its main diet a GRIP type program that will ONLY pay the returns promised if you annuatize them, normally after 10 years and then you can only get income stream. Last I heard they guaranteed 7% returns and paid similar bonus for moving cash to them.
D
NOT A GOOD SIGN, "Troubled Mortgages On The Rise"
"In another hit to the beleaguered housing market, a report out Monday found that the number of delinquent mortgage borrowers -- those who have missed at least one payment -- rose during the three months ended June 30.
The delinquency rate grew to 8.44%, adjusted for seasonal effects, up 0.12 percentage points compared with three months earlier. The non-seasonally adjusted increase was up 0.32 points to 8.11%.
The increase, as reported by the Mortgage Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), may not sound like much, but it reverses a steady improvement in delinquencies that prevailed through most of the past two years.
"While overall mortgage delinquencies increased only slightly between the first and second quarters of this year, it is clear that the downward trend we saw through most of 2010 has stopped." said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's Chief Economist. "Mortgage delinquencies are now showing some signs of worsening."
The delinquency rate grew to 8.44%, adjusted for seasonal effects, up 0.12 percentage points compared with three months earlier. The non-seasonally adjusted increase was up 0.32 points to 8.11%.
The increase, as reported by the Mortgage Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), may not sound like much, but it reverses a steady improvement in delinquencies that prevailed through most of the past two years.
"While overall mortgage delinquencies increased only slightly between the first and second quarters of this year, it is clear that the downward trend we saw through most of 2010 has stopped." said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's Chief Economist. "Mortgage delinquencies are now showing some signs of worsening."
THE FED TO CONTINUE FAILED POLICIES?
"Fiscal and monetary policies are rapidly losing credibility. Treasury prices may be inflated, but don’t mistake this for confidence in our system’s “core”. It may exist completely outside of the PhD’s sophisticated framework, but the markets and regular folk are feeling the ill-effects of currency debauchery."
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10565
Volatility continues as futures predict another triple digit opening, IMHO use strength to SELL and build cash. When some sanity comes back into market you ease back in if you desire. What has changed from last week to today?
Do you think the crisis is overblown? Do you think the job market is improving? Do you think the housing market is improving? Do you think gov't finance is improving? Do you think there is inflation present? Why is GOLD near $1,900 an ounce? Why aren't banks lending, why aren't businesses and consumers borrowing? have many been crippled financially by being underwater in their homes?
Has gov't dealt with the issues effectively? Has the stimuls worked or 0% interest rates? With Banks borrowing at 0% why are credit card rates near 20%? Is it healthy that savers get near 0% on their savings? WHY do govt and FED continue with failed policies?
MY MOTTO: "BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY"
D
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10565
Volatility continues as futures predict another triple digit opening, IMHO use strength to SELL and build cash. When some sanity comes back into market you ease back in if you desire. What has changed from last week to today?
Do you think the crisis is overblown? Do you think the job market is improving? Do you think the housing market is improving? Do you think gov't finance is improving? Do you think there is inflation present? Why is GOLD near $1,900 an ounce? Why aren't banks lending, why aren't businesses and consumers borrowing? have many been crippled financially by being underwater in their homes?
Has gov't dealt with the issues effectively? Has the stimuls worked or 0% interest rates? With Banks borrowing at 0% why are credit card rates near 20%? Is it healthy that savers get near 0% on their savings? WHY do govt and FED continue with failed policies?
MY MOTTO: "BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY"
D
Sunday, August 21, 2011
SPX LINES OF DEFENSE FOR COMNG WEEK
Already we have witnessed volatility not seen in lifetimes, if there is a switch I think it has flipped to the BEAR...ON ANY RALLY IMHO a good idea to raise cash and get defensive until smoke clears.
Don't be the last one out of the pool...again!
D
Friday, August 19, 2011
$700B 2011 INCREASE
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf unprecedented.
Futures -14 this AM, worried about EUROPE and recession fears, 1118-1119 in the S&P 500 key area IMHO....we will go down to test that, then 1100 reaction low is under that and good chance it holds, or should I say it better.
But the bottom line is , as many will tell you, investing is all about managing risk and keeping losses reasonable over time so they don't swamp winners.
If you ONLY HOLD and NEVER SELL......you will be like the many in the housing market, underwater.
D
Futures -14 this AM, worried about EUROPE and recession fears, 1118-1119 in the S&P 500 key area IMHO....we will go down to test that, then 1100 reaction low is under that and good chance it holds, or should I say it better.
But the bottom line is , as many will tell you, investing is all about managing risk and keeping losses reasonable over time so they don't swamp winners.
If you ONLY HOLD and NEVER SELL......you will be like the many in the housing market, underwater.
D
Thursday, August 18, 2011
VOLUME
64% INCREASE in volume today and was a 97% down volume day of total volume on the NYSE, that's pretty serious sharp decline....and more likely coming.....
D
D
10 YEAR TREASURY YIELDS FALL BELOW 2009 LOWS!!
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2011/08/elliott-wave-update-18-august-2011.html great site for EWT
Duratek
STOCK FUTURES OFF -25
AFter passing the 1200 area the SPX hasnow fallen back below and the 1207 level may have just been an overshot. 1175-1180 is seen by traders as support.
D
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Fed's low rate pledge "inappropriate": Fed's Plosser
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Feds-low-rate-pledge-rb-3871206875.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser on Wednesday said he disagreed with the Fed's decision to promise to keep interest rates low for another two years because policy should be dictated by the economy rather than a timeline.
"It was inappropriate policy at an inappropriate time," Plosser told Bloomberg Radio.
"Policy shouldn't be dependent on the calendar, it should be dependent on the economy," he later added.
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/elliott_wave_theory.htm Wave Theory, scroll down, I think we are completing a 4th wave in next day or so.
D
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser on Wednesday said he disagreed with the Fed's decision to promise to keep interest rates low for another two years because policy should be dictated by the economy rather than a timeline.
"It was inappropriate policy at an inappropriate time," Plosser told Bloomberg Radio.
"Policy shouldn't be dependent on the calendar, it should be dependent on the economy," he later added.
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/elliott_wave_theory.htm Wave Theory, scroll down, I think we are completing a 4th wave in next day or so.
D
NOTHING THAT GROWTH WOULDN'T FIX
PPI yr/yr July came in at near 7%. Companies are investing in their stock not their company or hiring.
This is statistically the weakest recovery on record. IMHO this is NOT time to make BIG bets, but time to be defensive. Many think lows for year have been met and that may be, but I have my doubts.
The GULF between corporate balance sheets and the avg American have never been greater....with austerity gaining in popularity, discontent could be breeding.
D
This is statistically the weakest recovery on record. IMHO this is NOT time to make BIG bets, but time to be defensive. Many think lows for year have been met and that may be, but I have my doubts.
The GULF between corporate balance sheets and the avg American have never been greater....with austerity gaining in popularity, discontent could be breeding.
D
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
"THE FED WAS SUCCESSFUL....." in all the wrong ways!
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc110815.htm John Hussman, one of the BRIGHT voices in the din of idiots
"Without question, one of the notions buoying Wall Street optimism here is the hope that the Fed will pull another rabbit out of its hat by initiating QE3. That's a nice sentiment, but it does overlook one minor detail. QE2 didn't work. Actually, that's not quite fair. The Federal Reserve was indeed successful at provoking a speculative frenzy in the financial markets, which has now been completely wiped out. The Fed was also successful in leveraging its balance sheet by more than 55-to-1 (more than Bear Stearns, Lehman, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or even Long-Term Capital Management ever achieved), and driving the monetary base to more than 18 cents for every dollar of GDP - a level that requires short-term interest rates to remain below about 3 basis points in order to maintain price stability (see Charles Plosser and the 50% Contraction in the Fed's Balance Sheet).
The Fed was indeed successful in provoking a wave of commodity hoarding that affected global supplies and injured the poorest of the poor - particularly in developing countries. The Fed was successful in setting off a very predictable decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. The Fed was successful in punishing savers and the risk averse, and driving investors to reach for yield in risky investments that they would normally avoid were it not for the absence of yield.
The Fed was successful in provoking those with strong balance sheets to pay down existing higher interest-rate debt, and in creating an incentive for those with weak balance sheets to issue more of it at low rates, resulting in a simultaneous deterioration of credit quality and compensation for risk in the financial system. The Fed was successful at boosting the trading profits of the banks that serve as primary dealers, by announcing precisely which securities it would be buying prior to Treasury auctions, and buying them on the open market a few days later from the dealers that acquired them. The Fed was successful in creating a portfolio of low yielding securities that will be almost impossible to disgorge without capital losses unless the Fed holds them to maturity.
On proper reflection, the list of the Fed's successes from QE2 is nothing short of stunning. It is beyond comprehension why anyone would wish for more of this recklessness. "
THERE ARE ISSUES
**TA note. Interesting how market points to WEAK open after sharp run up from lows just past 1200 resistance which probably has attracted a SWARM of long positions!
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The European Union, already strained by a deep debt crisis and spiraling financial markets, succumbed to the global economic malaise in the second quarter.
Gross domestic product for the 17 nations that use the euro grew a combined 0.2% in the second quarter, according to preliminary estimates released Tuesday from Eurostat, the EU statistics office.
That was down significantly from 0.8% in the first three months of 2011. Economists had forecast a decline, with many projecting a 0.3% growth rate in the quarter.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/16/news/international/european_union_gdp/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
"A report released by German Federal Statistical Office showed that the German GDP rose 0.1 percent sequentially in the second quarter following an upwardly revised 1.3 percent growth in the previous quarter. Economists had expected a bigger 0.5 percent expansion. The slowdown reflected softening in trade, which has thus far been its main engine of growth.
U.K. annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.4 percent in July from 4.2 percent in June. With inflation remaining more than 1 percent points above the central bank's threshold level of 2 percent for three straight months, the Bank of England governor Mervyn King has to write an explanation letter to Chancellor George Osborne." ino.com
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It would be "treasonous" if Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to use Federal Reserve policy to stimulate the economy before the election, Texas Governor Rick Perry said at a campaign stop in Iowa.
During an appearance in Cedar Rapids, in what appeared to be a backyard with a child's slide, Perry invoked folksy language to explain what he'd like to do to Bernanke if the chairman decides to engage in more quantitative easing.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The European Union, already strained by a deep debt crisis and spiraling financial markets, succumbed to the global economic malaise in the second quarter.
Gross domestic product for the 17 nations that use the euro grew a combined 0.2% in the second quarter, according to preliminary estimates released Tuesday from Eurostat, the EU statistics office.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/16/news/international/european_union_gdp/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
"A report released by German Federal Statistical Office showed that the German GDP rose 0.1 percent sequentially in the second quarter following an upwardly revised 1.3 percent growth in the previous quarter. Economists had expected a bigger 0.5 percent expansion. The slowdown reflected softening in trade, which has thus far been its main engine of growth.
U.K. annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.4 percent in July from 4.2 percent in June. With inflation remaining more than 1 percent points above the central bank's threshold level of 2 percent for three straight months, the Bank of England governor Mervyn King has to write an explanation letter to Chancellor George Osborne." ino.com
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It would be "treasonous" if Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to use Federal Reserve policy to stimulate the economy before the election, Texas Governor Rick Perry said at a campaign stop in Iowa.
During an appearance in Cedar Rapids, in what appeared to be a backyard with a child's slide, Perry invoked folksy language to explain what he'd like to do to Bernanke if the chairman decides to engage in more quantitative easing.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Saturday, August 13, 2011
DOUG NOLANDS TAKE
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10562
"But let’s not digress… What we do know is that acute market instability has again reared its ugly head. Policymakers are reacting, of course. To this point, policy measures have succeeded in thwarting a breakdown. I am skeptical that policymaking will so easily stabilize the markets. The Fed’s move to pre-commit to “pegged” zero rates for a couple more years may somewhat benefit the leveraged speculating community – while throwing a volatile mixture on the Treasury Bubble. But who believes this is fair to savers or the right medicine for our economy? And Europe will be walking a tightrope, as they struggle to support the faltering periphery without imperiling the system’s core. And as contagion effects continue to mount, it will come down to the markets’ view of the German taxpayer’s willingness to backstop the continent.
Sovereign debt crisis means all the easy solutions have been expended – and all the proven and conventional ones as well. When former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder was asked to comment on National Public Radio about the Fed’s new rate policy, he chuckled and said “they’re desperate.” I’ll assume it was nervous laughter. I will also presume that the marketplace will be increasingly unnerved that desperate policy measures risk destabilizing already highly unstable global markets (5% daily swings in equities; abrupt 4 point moves in bonds; 5% in currencies…). Are there any “safe havens”? There were in ’08. And all this equates to myriad market and economic uncertainties, including the risk of ongoing de-risking and de-leveraging. Best I can tell, the strongest bull argument going is that governments will support the markets. Well, the markets are in a world of hurt when that faith evaporates. This wasn’t much of an issue in 2008."
John Mauldin's "Beginning of the end game"
"But let’s not digress… What we do know is that acute market instability has again reared its ugly head. Policymakers are reacting, of course. To this point, policy measures have succeeded in thwarting a breakdown. I am skeptical that policymaking will so easily stabilize the markets. The Fed’s move to pre-commit to “pegged” zero rates for a couple more years may somewhat benefit the leveraged speculating community – while throwing a volatile mixture on the Treasury Bubble. But who believes this is fair to savers or the right medicine for our economy? And Europe will be walking a tightrope, as they struggle to support the faltering periphery without imperiling the system’s core. And as contagion effects continue to mount, it will come down to the markets’ view of the German taxpayer’s willingness to backstop the continent.
Sovereign debt crisis means all the easy solutions have been expended – and all the proven and conventional ones as well. When former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder was asked to comment on National Public Radio about the Fed’s new rate policy, he chuckled and said “they’re desperate.” I’ll assume it was nervous laughter. I will also presume that the marketplace will be increasingly unnerved that desperate policy measures risk destabilizing already highly unstable global markets (5% daily swings in equities; abrupt 4 point moves in bonds; 5% in currencies…). Are there any “safe havens”? There were in ’08. And all this equates to myriad market and economic uncertainties, including the risk of ongoing de-risking and de-leveraging. Best I can tell, the strongest bull argument going is that governments will support the markets. Well, the markets are in a world of hurt when that faith evaporates. This wasn’t much of an issue in 2008."
John Mauldin's "Beginning of the end game"
DID THE MARKET PUT IN A BOTTOM THIS WEEK?
Briefly the window IS open for that possibility. A FLURRY of 90% down days followed by a 90% up, then down and up again 90% day. SO were the 2 90% up volume days PROOF of renewed investor demand? I would say 100% yes, had a 90% down volume day been sandwhiched in between.
If you must invest here, a measured approach may work best, dipping in a toe at a time vs all in, IMHO
Are we now going sideways betwee 1100 and 1200 on the S&P? That could be too as we work off oversold condition, nothing too much fundamentally has changed, though the bulls point to retail sales as proof all is OK, not as bad as it seems. Then what about the lowest reading for Consumer Confidence in 30 years?
It's never supposed to be too easy at major turning points. Was market brough to the brink of a new bear market to be saved at last moment?
What about the fact NO BULL MKT has ever had 2 10% PLUS corrections in it? We will know more straight ahead, and we have parameters to judge
D
If you must invest here, a measured approach may work best, dipping in a toe at a time vs all in, IMHO
Are we now going sideways betwee 1100 and 1200 on the S&P? That could be too as we work off oversold condition, nothing too much fundamentally has changed, though the bulls point to retail sales as proof all is OK, not as bad as it seems. Then what about the lowest reading for Consumer Confidence in 30 years?
It's never supposed to be too easy at major turning points. Was market brough to the brink of a new bear market to be saved at last moment?
What about the fact NO BULL MKT has ever had 2 10% PLUS corrections in it? We will know more straight ahead, and we have parameters to judge
D
Friday, August 12, 2011
BEWARE THE FAKE RALLY
"Analysts have warned again and again that developments in Europe will continue to plague the U.S. market. Putting too much stock in Europe's rally may prove a mistake."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Europes-Rally-Sets-Stage-for-tsmf-3306862702.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Europes-Rally-Sets-Stage-for-tsmf-3306862702.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
SENTIMENT PLUNGES TO HISTORIC LOW
CS hits HISTORIC LOW
"The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary August reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 54.9, the lowest since May 1980, down from 63.7 in July. It was well below the the median forecast of 63.0 among economists polled by Reuters."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44119437/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/
Direct correlation to GDP and spending
D
Thursday, August 11, 2011
BROKEN DOWN
90% volume days now as common as McDonalds Restuarants. 80% of people polled say they worry about money. Lowest rates in history have not fixed the hole that is real estate.
Savers will get NO reprieve til after 2013? getting as good as nothing for savings. WILD SWING in gold prices, multiple days of record gains to a record high.
Oil has fallen $20 a barrel but the price at pump has not budged in many towns. Construction companies are sucking mudd. Claims fell to 398,000 down 7,000 from prior week, reason for cheer?
20% of Americans rely in government handouts. What recovery includes over 9% unemployment 2 years later?
You think it's safe to come out of the shelter and venture back into the stock market? think again
D
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
CHARLES NENNER "MY SYSTEM IS BEARISH"
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/no-reason-own-stocks-now-charles-nenner-164150253.html
"Thinking about testing the waters of a badly beaten stock market?
Think again. That's what the proprietary research of Professor Charles Nenner shows. This former Goldman Sachs technician uses more than 200 indicators to analyze trends and cycles and has come to stark conclusion.
"My system is very bearish," Nenner tells Breakout via telephone from Amsterdam.
"I think 1139 (in the S&P 500) is going to hold," he says, but he wouldn't buy any bounce because his work shows this cycle continuing into October. "My systems are showing a lot of risk. We are totally out of the market after reaching our upside price target about 200 points higher."
So, as much as you might be tempted to call the bottom in this slump, Nenner flatly says there's no reason why you should be long stocks. And even though 0.25% for a 2-year Treasury might seem uninspiring, Nenner says making no money in bonds is not a reason to try to make money in stocks."
"Thinking about testing the waters of a badly beaten stock market?
Think again. That's what the proprietary research of Professor Charles Nenner shows. This former Goldman Sachs technician uses more than 200 indicators to analyze trends and cycles and has come to stark conclusion.
"My system is very bearish," Nenner tells Breakout via telephone from Amsterdam.
"I think 1139 (in the S&P 500) is going to hold," he says, but he wouldn't buy any bounce because his work shows this cycle continuing into October. "My systems are showing a lot of risk. We are totally out of the market after reaching our upside price target about 200 points higher."
So, as much as you might be tempted to call the bottom in this slump, Nenner flatly says there's no reason why you should be long stocks. And even though 0.25% for a 2-year Treasury might seem uninspiring, Nenner says making no money in bonds is not a reason to try to make money in stocks."
S&P DOWNGRADE INVALIDATED?
Interesting comments from Armstrong on the SP downgrade. I am wondering, if you are the govt and FED and want to keep interest rates down...what would YOU do? have market panic? sending money fleeing to what was just downgraded...invalidating S^P?
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
5 MINUTE SPX ACTION CLOSEUP
Reaction finally came today to massive selloff in a 90% upside volume day, was it short covering, reaction or is a low of some kind in?What has really changed?
INCREASES LIKELIHOOD OF SNAP BACK RALLY
D
RALLY TO WHERE?
98% PLUS down volume yesterday on enormous volume. Snap back may finally be in play. The decline so wicked, so fierce and swift, the likelihood of a TEST of the lows put in place is a high probability event. So IMHO, because of high levels of volatility, I see the environment as set up for a 2nd mouse play, no heroism or bottom picking.Duratek
Monday, August 08, 2011
BIG BEAR IS BACK
One of the most obvious warning signs of a bear market is the inability to rally from heavily oversold conditions. Even attempt in last half hour was rebuffed and markets closed ON THE LOWS.
HEAR ME AND HEAR ME LOUD, this is not the kind of market you bleep around with, you get to as much safety as you can and don't be a hero. AND IF IT IS as I am saying it is, the bear is back, that means prices will go MUCH further below current prices. They look good now? will look much better later.
Remember who said what and when, and you will know what their opinion is worth. ON TV, the BOOB SQUAD, on the RADIO, a plethora of ignoramuses who don't even know
how to spell S E L L.
WITH backs against the wall, SURE....at anytime a rally could erupt, but SO MUCH technical damage has been done,and as hard as it is to think about, it could come from lower levels.
THE SPEED from which this decline has come takes your breath away and wasn't seen by many and has been unrelenting. That tells me something is horribly wrong, and lost of the damage coming after the DEAL to raise debt ceiling. These IDIOTS don't get it, maybe never will.
A free market system that is allowed to adjust for supply and demand will normally catch problems before they become bubbles. You give credit to anyone with a face, no fact checking, no one watching the henhouse, eloected officials oblvious like BIG BEN BERNANKE. They did nothing because the wine was flowing, wheels getting greased, money flowing into gov't so they could spend even more.
Gov't can solve all our problems? I don't think so, they can sure help create some.
D
HEAR ME AND HEAR ME LOUD, this is not the kind of market you bleep around with, you get to as much safety as you can and don't be a hero. AND IF IT IS as I am saying it is, the bear is back, that means prices will go MUCH further below current prices. They look good now? will look much better later.
Remember who said what and when, and you will know what their opinion is worth. ON TV, the BOOB SQUAD, on the RADIO, a plethora of ignoramuses who don't even know
how to spell S E L L.
WITH backs against the wall, SURE....at anytime a rally could erupt, but SO MUCH technical damage has been done,and as hard as it is to think about, it could come from lower levels.
THE SPEED from which this decline has come takes your breath away and wasn't seen by many and has been unrelenting. That tells me something is horribly wrong, and lost of the damage coming after the DEAL to raise debt ceiling. These IDIOTS don't get it, maybe never will.
A free market system that is allowed to adjust for supply and demand will normally catch problems before they become bubbles. You give credit to anyone with a face, no fact checking, no one watching the henhouse, eloected officials oblvious like BIG BEN BERNANKE. They did nothing because the wine was flowing, wheels getting greased, money flowing into gov't so they could spend even more.
Gov't can solve all our problems? I don't think so, they can sure help create some.
D
RELENTLESS SELLING
Even as some stock prices begin looking interesting, the buyers are not YET stepping forward, so as margin calls and hedging positions get unwound, maybe even overseas traders needing liquidity so they sell US positions, all aiding in the spiral. ETF's add on way up, now many complain on the way down.
I tried to warn, hopefully some of you got more defensive. Some of what I read and now believe is that we are in EARLY INNINGS and if help us all THE SECULAR BEAR HAS RETURNED, I have pointed to and still think 666 2009 lows get tested.
One of main reasons we moved from there in 2009 was the GAO relaxing accounting standards for the banks, and they didn't have to carry on the books the devalued mortgages at current market prices....even as values continued down. This IMHO made financial earnings, a BIG part of the S&P 500 a mirage.
Worldwide contagion, economic data not indicative of a healthy recovery, but stocks persisted in their climb until about 6 months ago.In July the SPX made a lower high and formed a right should in a head and shoulders patter, broke its neckline and now has fallen BELOW where that projected....again who you listen to warned of any of this? STOCKS ARE CHEAP they kept saying...look at earnings.
How do you know if you aren't looking at PEAK EARNINGS? Every radio show I tune in, the same old thing....I'm buying APPL here, stay in market, Im buying Ford. Cramer liked ford at $16, bet he likes it even more at $10...why does ANYONE tune in that jerk?
CNBS first in news.....losing viewers like crazy. DEBT BINGE is unwinding, who knows how much leverage, and what is being hidden. US DEBT DOWNGRADE...what does President come out and say?" G-d bless our troops....we will always be a AAA country..." if you say it enought times it is true, PRES we actually, well we lost that dude! He lives in a dreamworld, and no way he gets reelected....
If the BEAR MKT persists through the next President, he'll go too. WHO didn't know 1% rates and now 0% rates will cause imbalances? GOLD ABOVE $1,700 !! SAVERS BRUTALLY PENALIZED and now to get yield, income....you aren't left with much.
Sentiment and indicators of economic vitality will be hurt by poor stockmarket performance and WILL IMPACT spending decisions.
It really is felling like this IS THE TIME the abuses of the last 30 plus years have come home to roost and except for GOLD it feels like deflation and Kondratielf Winter
here is Martin Armstrong on SP downgrade
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Standard%20and%20Poors%20Downgrade%2008-06-2011.pdf
666 on the S&P 500 was never tested IMHO, and it seems likely to me, that before this crushing wave of selling in the continuation of the great bear market, prices may even fall beneath that.
A very good chance all many can now think about is how to get out, and so rallies may get sold and we just have this viscious cycle until prices getlow enough for sustainable rally.
D
HOW A TOP IS FORMED?
Sunday, August 07, 2011
SKEPTICS
I can't believe what I hear from people sometimes. Futures down -29 this evening, CHINA stocks off near 4%......so many see value, trying to pick bottom, when the pipe is hot why do they grab it?
This is not a time to be cute or f around, let the shitstorm blow, don't stand in front of it, be SAFE as you can...if it blows over and you see blue sky great....then theres plenty of time to throw money at it...if you're early be prepared for tears.
Can it reverse before the open? dont think so. Can it reverse before the close? expect WILDNESS....I tried to warn...that's all I can do.
D
This is not a time to be cute or f around, let the shitstorm blow, don't stand in front of it, be SAFE as you can...if it blows over and you see blue sky great....then theres plenty of time to throw money at it...if you're early be prepared for tears.
Can it reverse before the open? dont think so. Can it reverse before the close? expect WILDNESS....I tried to warn...that's all I can do.
D
PANIC ATTACK
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/business/neurofinance-shows-how-investors-can-shun-reason.html?_r=1&hp
Now I could be wrong, but I am fearful (for those long) of the open on Monday and beyond. You can see how quickly PANIC can set in. DO YOU UNDERSTAND this process forever repeats itself?
That what I track in the market is this never ending struggle between GREED and FEAR and it ALWAYS goes to each extreme before she pops, bursts. ANd ALWAYS the little players are buying near the top, selling at the bottom. Now the little guy has either been sitting tight all this time, or has left market maybe for good after 2 brutal bear markets in 10 years.
In the meantime, thanks to reckless ineffective FED policy of 0% rates and TARGETING the stock market for appreciation, you have lots of BIG PLAYERS loaed to the gills long, and maybe not too many greater fools left to sell to.
NOW ADD uncertainty to the Bond market, how will the US debt downgrade effect the interest rates on US bonds? How will those who hold them react? WILL THEY WAIT until one of the remaining 2 agencies make their ruling. Fitch and Moody's?
My chart of the Bond Bull now 29 years old......that is a bull or bubble you don't want to see popping.
Now I could be wrong, but I am fearful (for those long) of the open on Monday and beyond. You can see how quickly PANIC can set in. DO YOU UNDERSTAND this process forever repeats itself?
That what I track in the market is this never ending struggle between GREED and FEAR and it ALWAYS goes to each extreme before she pops, bursts. ANd ALWAYS the little players are buying near the top, selling at the bottom. Now the little guy has either been sitting tight all this time, or has left market maybe for good after 2 brutal bear markets in 10 years.
In the meantime, thanks to reckless ineffective FED policy of 0% rates and TARGETING the stock market for appreciation, you have lots of BIG PLAYERS loaed to the gills long, and maybe not too many greater fools left to sell to.
NOW ADD uncertainty to the Bond market, how will the US debt downgrade effect the interest rates on US bonds? How will those who hold them react? WILL THEY WAIT until one of the remaining 2 agencies make their ruling. Fitch and Moody's?
My chart of the Bond Bull now 29 years old......that is a bull or bubble you don't want to see popping.
S&P OFFICIALS DEFEND US DEBT DOWNGRADE
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Standard & Poor's says it downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating because it believes the U.S. will keep having problems getting its finances under control.
S&P officials on Saturday defended their decision to drop the government's rating to AA+ from the top rating, AAA. The Obama administration called the move a hasty decision based on wrong calculations about the federal budget. It had tried to head off the downgrade before it was announced late Friday.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SP-officials-defend-US-credit-apf-685948715.html?x=0
I have been reading reaction to this, and it surprises how many are not worried, don't see this as an escalation of our issues. See it as a but the news opportunity.
More reaction http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-downgrade-raises-anxiety-apf-821085521.html?x=0
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The real danger from the downgrade of U.S. government debt by Standard & Poor's isn't higher interest rates. It's the hit to the nation's fragile economic psyche and rattled financial markets.
S&P's decision to strip the U.S. of its sterling AAA credit rating for the first time and move it down one notch, to AA+, deals a blow to the confidence of consumers and businesses at a dangerous time, economists say.
The agency is "striking at the heart of what makes the global economy tick," says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economists for the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "It isn't just dollars and cents."
D
S&P officials on Saturday defended their decision to drop the government's rating to AA+ from the top rating, AAA. The Obama administration called the move a hasty decision based on wrong calculations about the federal budget. It had tried to head off the downgrade before it was announced late Friday.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SP-officials-defend-US-credit-apf-685948715.html?x=0
I have been reading reaction to this, and it surprises how many are not worried, don't see this as an escalation of our issues. See it as a but the news opportunity.
More reaction http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-downgrade-raises-anxiety-apf-821085521.html?x=0
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The real danger from the downgrade of U.S. government debt by Standard & Poor's isn't higher interest rates. It's the hit to the nation's fragile economic psyche and rattled financial markets.
S&P's decision to strip the U.S. of its sterling AAA credit rating for the first time and move it down one notch, to AA+, deals a blow to the confidence of consumers and businesses at a dangerous time, economists say.
The agency is "striking at the heart of what makes the global economy tick," says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economists for the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "It isn't just dollars and cents."
D
Saturday, August 06, 2011
SAY GOODBYE TO THE GOOD OLD DAYS
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10560
"Today, the speculator community must have one eye on the debt markets and the other on the currencies – with nervous glances back and forth to unstable equities, commodities and the emerging markets. And now that de-risking and de-leveraging have begun in earnest – and with losses accumulating rapidly – the fear will be of de-leveraging begetting liquidity issues and only more de-leveraging. And, of course, today’s dog-eat-dog environment ensures that operators will now seek to profit (by selling first/"front running") from those needing to sell – after a couple of years of seeking to profit (buying first) from those that needed to buy.
And there will be the issue of hedge fund redemptions, with the distinct possibility that industry fundamentals have recently taken a dramatic turn for the worse. And throw in the lingering problem with derivatives, ETFs and other instruments that create heightened risk of trend-reinforcing trading to the downside. Resulting uncertainty, tightened financial conditions and waning confidence portend economic disappointment – and the makings for burst Bubbles and bear markets. "
And some TOUGH LOVE
NEW YORK/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China bluntly criticized the United States on Saturday one day after the superpower's credit rating was downgraded, saying the "good old days" of borrowing were over.
"Today, the speculator community must have one eye on the debt markets and the other on the currencies – with nervous glances back and forth to unstable equities, commodities and the emerging markets. And now that de-risking and de-leveraging have begun in earnest – and with losses accumulating rapidly – the fear will be of de-leveraging begetting liquidity issues and only more de-leveraging. And, of course, today’s dog-eat-dog environment ensures that operators will now seek to profit (by selling first/"front running") from those needing to sell – after a couple of years of seeking to profit (buying first) from those that needed to buy.
And there will be the issue of hedge fund redemptions, with the distinct possibility that industry fundamentals have recently taken a dramatic turn for the worse. And throw in the lingering problem with derivatives, ETFs and other instruments that create heightened risk of trend-reinforcing trading to the downside. Resulting uncertainty, tightened financial conditions and waning confidence portend economic disappointment – and the makings for burst Bubbles and bear markets. "
And some TOUGH LOVE
NEW YORK/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China bluntly criticized the United States on Saturday one day after the superpower's credit rating was downgraded, saying the "good old days" of borrowing were over.
MORE ON S&P US DEBT DOWNGRADE
"The back and forth came after Standard & Poor's, one of the world's three major credit rating agencies, cited "difficulties in bridging the gulf between political parties" as a major reason for the downgrade from U.S.'s top shelf AAA status to AA+, the next level down. The rating agency has essentially lost faith in Washington's ability to work together to address its debt.
Both political parties used S&P's report to buffet their policy cases and attack the other side."
HISTORIC DIVIDEND YIELD FOR S&P 500 AND STRIP AWAY
Looking for signs of market tops or bottoms, 2% yield historically more indicative of a TOP not a bottom, however many will argue that LOW Treasury yields make stocks attractive. 6% yields are more like it at Secular bottoms.
Below we have a chart of the DOW showing the 2009 bottom and rally, I have drawn 3 "FAN" lines to arrive at Resistance and support points and the break of the 3rd fan line is not particularly a good sign
http://tradingsim.com/blog/fan-principle/
"Remember that the break of the third trend line is usually the indication of trend reversal."Like a wounded animal, the market is VERY oversold by many measures, so be ready for more wild swings. The SP debt downgrade MAY not show in the futures come Monday, given oversold, it IS possible already discounted.
Bear markets NOT BULL MARKETS strip away excess and reveal values.....IMHO this process has just begun.
Duratek
Friday, August 05, 2011
NEWS ALERT
8:51 PM S&P lowers its sovereign credit rating for the U.S. from AAA to AA+. "The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics."
IPSU FACTO. SOME CASUALTIES
THINK ABOUT THIS NEXT TIME YOU LICK A STAMP
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Postal Service posted a net loss of $3.1 billion in its third quarter and warned again it would default on payments to the federal government if Congress did not step in.
Total mail volume for the quarter that ended June 30 fell to 39.8 billion pieces, a 2.6 percent drop from the same period a year earlier, as consumers turn to email and pay bills online.
The mail carrier, which does not get taxpayer funds, has struggled to overhaul its business as mail volumes fall. It has said personnel costs weigh heavily and is facing a massive retiree health benefit prepayment next month.
"We are experiencing a severe cash crisis and are unable to continue to maintain the aggressive prepayment schedule," Joseph Corbett, the agency's chief financial officer, said in a statement.
"Without changes in the law, the Postal Service will be unable to make the $5.5 billion mandated prepayment due in September."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/USPS-posts-31-billion-loss-in-rb-239466000.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Total mail volume for the quarter that ended June 30 fell to 39.8 billion pieces, a 2.6 percent drop from the same period a year earlier, as consumers turn to email and pay bills online.
The mail carrier, which does not get taxpayer funds, has struggled to overhaul its business as mail volumes fall. It has said personnel costs weigh heavily and is facing a massive retiree health benefit prepayment next month.
"We are experiencing a severe cash crisis and are unable to continue to maintain the aggressive prepayment schedule," Joseph Corbett, the agency's chief financial officer, said in a statement.
"Without changes in the law, the Postal Service will be unable to make the $5.5 billion mandated prepayment due in September."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/USPS-posts-31-billion-loss-in-rb-239466000.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
TEMPTING
D
NET BIRTH DEATH ADJUSTMENTS
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
Think the market needed an employment number seen as positive today? We are in SELL THE RALLY MODE IMHO, surely the market can muster some bounce here. Yestedays 98.7% down volume day and 7 Billion shares trades smell of washout, but remember where we were in 2009 bottom SPX 666.
CNBS keeps touting ant number they can grasp and act like none of this matters, the HAIR explains how Europe, well that's over there and we must have added LOTS of manufactruing jobs, even as the ISM manufacturing index fell to NEUTRAL near 50.00 a hair above contraction.
A worldwide coordinated move below the 200 moving average....Transports, CAC, China, TECH...
Notice how yesterday we heard from Challenger and they said "mass layoffs increased" and todays numbers do NOTHING to dispell an environment that is not condusive to putting back to work the 7 MILLION or so who are off the payrolls since 2007 top....making this the WEAKEST statistical recovery in almost every area from a Recession in history.
Do we JUMP back in here? Tempting isn't it? I HOPE I AM WRONG, we can use technical analysis to judge any rebound. I still think the last 10 trading days is a SHOT ACROSS THE BOW AND I'M LISTENING LOUD AND CLEAR, I AM NOT SMARTER THAN THE MARKET.
Duratek
Think the market needed an employment number seen as positive today? We are in SELL THE RALLY MODE IMHO, surely the market can muster some bounce here. Yestedays 98.7% down volume day and 7 Billion shares trades smell of washout, but remember where we were in 2009 bottom SPX 666.
CNBS keeps touting ant number they can grasp and act like none of this matters, the HAIR explains how Europe, well that's over there and we must have added LOTS of manufactruing jobs, even as the ISM manufacturing index fell to NEUTRAL near 50.00 a hair above contraction.
A worldwide coordinated move below the 200 moving average....Transports, CAC, China, TECH...
Notice how yesterday we heard from Challenger and they said "mass layoffs increased" and todays numbers do NOTHING to dispell an environment that is not condusive to putting back to work the 7 MILLION or so who are off the payrolls since 2007 top....making this the WEAKEST statistical recovery in almost every area from a Recession in history.
Do we JUMP back in here? Tempting isn't it? I HOPE I AM WRONG, we can use technical analysis to judge any rebound. I still think the last 10 trading days is a SHOT ACROSS THE BOW AND I'M LISTENING LOUD AND CLEAR, I AM NOT SMARTER THAN THE MARKET.
Duratek
Thursday, August 04, 2011
IT'S FINALLY HERE!
D
BLOOD BATH AND A TICK AND IS BEAR MARKET BACK?
Difference is I've been warning that we have ALREADY be in the grasp of the BEAR.Several of my indicators have already flipped over. We look headed for sure for a 50/200 bear cross, when and IF that 200 has similar trajectory as 50 there won't be anymore guesswork.
You can only live in a wonderland for so long and this is a perfect example of how fast the market can move down, 10% in 9 trading days.
We have now had 2 corrections better than 10%, last summer we had one of 16%. I am pretty sure Lowry's stats once ago said there has been no bull with 2 corrections greater than 10%....so what is this?
90% days are conviction and fearful buying and selling days, since 2009 the majority if them have been declines.
The worlds economies are slowing, and to say corporate profits HAVE been good, OK.....but maybe market is saying they have been as good as they can be.
The backdrop does not seem conducive to a sustainable recovery, have felt so all the time.....and I am so very sorry to say, IMHO...the BEAR IS BACK.
AFTER ALL the technical damage, we would have to have one helluva turnaround in sentiment.
Duratek
RUBBER CHICKEN
Continued weekly claims at 400,000 or above continues, the explosion of corporate profits brought about by FED 0% rate policy and lowered head count IMHO has topped.
In the end, corporate profits are better served investing back into the company and in human resources instead of for stock buy backs. The buy backs lower the # of shares outstanding and make earnings look better making shareholders happy, making insiders cashing out even happier.
$ jumped higher this AM, on Euro weakness. Does weakness around the globe argue for a stronger market here? New lows in the 2 year yield suggest LOTS of smart money is being parked in saftey and goes against any action in a prior BULL MKT I've ever seen, it usually rises.
IMHO you have a stock market controlled by players, big houses and good chance MOST are stuck LONG, really LONG, what happens when no one steps in to buy? ALL of these 90% down volume days and breaking of technical support along woth ST oversold readings suggest a relief rally should be near but also suggest a weak market and aging bull market,
Futures are pointing to weak open and a test of yesterdays reaction lows....THERE we will know much more.
D
In the end, corporate profits are better served investing back into the company and in human resources instead of for stock buy backs. The buy backs lower the # of shares outstanding and make earnings look better making shareholders happy, making insiders cashing out even happier.
$ jumped higher this AM, on Euro weakness. Does weakness around the globe argue for a stronger market here? New lows in the 2 year yield suggest LOTS of smart money is being parked in saftey and goes against any action in a prior BULL MKT I've ever seen, it usually rises.
IMHO you have a stock market controlled by players, big houses and good chance MOST are stuck LONG, really LONG, what happens when no one steps in to buy? ALL of these 90% down volume days and breaking of technical support along woth ST oversold readings suggest a relief rally should be near but also suggest a weak market and aging bull market,
Futures are pointing to weak open and a test of yesterdays reaction lows....THERE we will know much more.
D
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
ARE TREND LINES IMPORTANT?
Either way I don't care, major technical damage done, are the issues bothering the market suddenly gone away?
D
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