I am focusing on the NAZ, off better than 1.6% ! And this coming after HYPE from CSCO, and HPQ AXING Carly! (idiot speculators bid the stock up like Carly was to BLAME for lame performance of company).
INTC MSFT AAPL IBM CSCO the supposed generals for tech and we are DOWN for the year 2005.
WHat led TRANSPORTS are now somewhat LAGGING.
WHAT the H is the BOND market trying to tell us? 10 YR note now under 4% !!!
A FLATTENING yield curve could be telling us of trouble ahead, a SLOWING of economy....something is wrong.
We still have record bullishness. WE ONLY had one week during ALL of Bear Market where there were not 50% bulls polled (II)
The bullishness is mind blowing to me. IN an atmosphere of NO FEAR, you have GOBS of fear to feed on.
IMHO, we are ripe for the return of the Bear Market.
And I repeat, it seems to me, the ONE thing I can find it seems nobody loves or wants, is the US $$$ and that is what I am going to hold.
Duratek...SAFETY FIRST! PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL.
Wednesday, February 09, 2005
LIES, DAMNED LIES
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050209/ap_on_he_me/medicare_costs
Whatever 'THEY" say the cost of anything IS, triple it! The cost SAID to be associated with SS private accounts, cannot be believed NOR can we afford it with our mounting budget deficits.
"THEY" see it as a freakin' boondoggle of fees as wall street salavates over it.
I ask, why in the hell do we need ANOTHER retirement account, on top of IRA 401K etc, that WE already have?
The answer is we DON'T, and we could allow people under 50 to put more away tax deferredto maybe cover what 'THEY" won't tell you will have to be recinded because it can't be afforded, or you can collect SS after you're already dead.
.3% of difference between 10 and 30 YR BONDS! The SMART money has been PILING into them to LOCK up yields....as the lemmings don't even know how to ask WHY!?
Where is that SEVERE decline in markets recognizing all the bamboozlement that has taken place I am looking for?
Duratek
Whatever 'THEY" say the cost of anything IS, triple it! The cost SAID to be associated with SS private accounts, cannot be believed NOR can we afford it with our mounting budget deficits.
"THEY" see it as a freakin' boondoggle of fees as wall street salavates over it.
I ask, why in the hell do we need ANOTHER retirement account, on top of IRA 401K etc, that WE already have?
The answer is we DON'T, and we could allow people under 50 to put more away tax deferredto maybe cover what 'THEY" won't tell you will have to be recinded because it can't be afforded, or you can collect SS after you're already dead.
.3% of difference between 10 and 30 YR BONDS! The SMART money has been PILING into them to LOCK up yields....as the lemmings don't even know how to ask WHY!?
Where is that SEVERE decline in markets recognizing all the bamboozlement that has taken place I am looking for?
Duratek
Tuesday, February 08, 2005
CSCO..a waste of good money?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CSCO
CSCO spent near $2 Billion buying back shares, so they could look good for earnings per share?
With 6.5 Billion shares outstanding, IMHO what a waste of money.
D
CSCO spent near $2 Billion buying back shares, so they could look good for earnings per share?
With 6.5 Billion shares outstanding, IMHO what a waste of money.
D
CSCO REPORTS and fells stock
Cisco (CSCO: news, chart, profile) fell 2.4 percent to $17.80 after it reported a fiscal second-quarter profit of 21 cents per share on sales of $6.06 billion. Excluding items it earned 22 cents per share. Cisco was expected to post a profit of 22 cents per share on revenue of $6.13 billion.
*Just can't please anyone these days! Trading range friends, that's all we got, any breakout IMHO will be to the downside, the long bond is telling us something is wrong.
D
*Just can't please anyone these days! Trading range friends, that's all we got, any breakout IMHO will be to the downside, the long bond is telling us something is wrong.
D
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050208/85914_1.html
CSCO helped their cause with $140 Million repurchase of shares (making earnings look better) and a WHOPPING $580 Milloin was related to stock options (approx)
D Not going to stick around for reaction.....IMHO....futures should go red tonight.
CSCO helped their cause with $140 Million repurchase of shares (making earnings look better) and a WHOPPING $580 Milloin was related to stock options (approx)
D Not going to stick around for reaction.....IMHO....futures should go red tonight.
CSCO Earnings on tap tonight
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B1334955F%2D183A%2D4000%2DB6A7%2D413C0D34D169%7D
VERY heavy call buying from the options crowd. CSCO tends to give heavy dose of hype and merryment.
D
VERY heavy call buying from the options crowd. CSCO tends to give heavy dose of hype and merryment.
D
Monday, February 07, 2005
NDX 20 EMA REDUX and MORE
http://tinyurl.com/6q256
Sure is hugging that 20 EMA, I am looking for a break, and I think it will follow the declining avg.
The FED will continue to raise short term rates, not to do so might actually unravel markets and dismiss the appearence of health of economy.
SOme snippets from here and there:
2004 saw Insiders sell $41 B of stock to $1.24 B bought. this was 40% above previous year! and purchases 2nd lowest sicne 1996 (Crosscurrents)
In their Dec issue same showed RYDEX flow of funds RATIO was 4.1 bulls to bears! and termed it "euphoric".
100 WK moving avg of II poll now shows 2.5 bulls to bears! NOT once in 2 years has there been more bears than bulls.
Also from Alan's great column...."we offered some info on the expectation for a 15% correction. A 10% correction can be expected every 1.44 years. It's about time."
STocks LESS attractive when FED raises rates. BAnks can OFFER more in yield competing with market.
**I have argued that if the saying..."you should be buying what nobody else wants" then to me CASH is that item.
EVEN Gates has jumped on the I HATE $$$ bandwagon. IMHO it is far from time to RAISE cash and let the wind blow.
Duratek
Sure is hugging that 20 EMA, I am looking for a break, and I think it will follow the declining avg.
The FED will continue to raise short term rates, not to do so might actually unravel markets and dismiss the appearence of health of economy.
SOme snippets from here and there:
2004 saw Insiders sell $41 B of stock to $1.24 B bought. this was 40% above previous year! and purchases 2nd lowest sicne 1996 (Crosscurrents)
In their Dec issue same showed RYDEX flow of funds RATIO was 4.1 bulls to bears! and termed it "euphoric".
100 WK moving avg of II poll now shows 2.5 bulls to bears! NOT once in 2 years has there been more bears than bulls.
Also from Alan's great column...."we offered some info on the expectation for a 15% correction. A 10% correction can be expected every 1.44 years. It's about time."
STocks LESS attractive when FED raises rates. BAnks can OFFER more in yield competing with market.
**I have argued that if the saying..."you should be buying what nobody else wants" then to me CASH is that item.
EVEN Gates has jumped on the I HATE $$$ bandwagon. IMHO it is far from time to RAISE cash and let the wind blow.
Duratek
Sunday, February 06, 2005
ALL SIGNS POINT TO BUBBLE DR. RICHEBACHER
ALL SIGNS POINT TO BUBBLE
By Kurt Richebächer
In its Jan. 10 issue, Business Week carried an article, A Gold Medal for the Fed's Inflation Fighters, from Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia Business School and former chief of the president's Council of Economic Advisers. The key point of this article is that "by holding inflation down, the Fed has boosted the economy." We mention this article because it is highly typical of the prevailing systematic disinformation about the U.S. economy.
Given a U.S. inflation rate of 3.3% during 2004, any talk of "ridding the U.S. economy of inflation" is, first of all, grossly misplaced. Even more absurd is the further assumption that the Federal Reserve has distinguished itself as a great inflation fighter.
In actual fact, in the past few years, the Greenspan Fed has systematically and deliberately fostered parabolic credit and financial excess with the explicit purpose of inflating asset prices. What manifestly is duping most people is the fact that the bulk of the credit excess poured into asset prices and the soaring trade deficit, rather than into the CPI, as had been usual.
As we have repeatedly stressed, speaking of inflation requires a distinction between cause and effects. It ordinarily has one and the same cause: excessive creation of money and credit. But its impact on the economy and its price system depends entirely on the specific purposes for which the borrowed money is used. Therefore, its effects may differ immensely.
Principally, credit excess may find three different outlets: first, rising prices of goods and services; second, rising prices of financial and tangible assets; and third, a rising trade deficit.
The conventional focus is exclusively on the first outlet: that is, on the movement of consumer prices, popularly called CPI in America. Amazingly, even most experts flatly deny a causal connection between a rampant credit expansion, rising asset prices and a rising trade deficit. The rampant inflation in U.S. stock and house prices is actually hailed as "wealth creation."
Historically, consumer price inflation has, indeed, been the regular key feature of credit excess. But this pattern began to change drastically in the course of the 1980s. For the first time, protracted, exceptionally sharp increases in stock and real estate prices occurred in various countries, while price increases for goods and services remained moderate.
At first, there was little inclination to see in soaring asset prices a feature of inflation, even though all countries concerned showed a simultaneous surge in money and credit growth. It irritated many experts that this monetary explosion did not show in higher prices for goods and labor, as it had done in past booms. In the late 1980s, Japan had double-digit money, credit growth and soaring asset prices, yet virtually stable consumer and producer prices.
For years, this strange coincidence of soaring asset inflation and simultaneous moderate consumer price inflation was hailed as a sign of economic health and dynamism. It has long been one of Mr. Greenspan's favorite arguments that this unusual coincidence proved the existence of a "new paradigm" economy.
While stock prices have recovered from their lows in 2001, in general, their gains during 2004 were very limited. Instead, a developing property bubble has gone global. Full-blown housing bubbles with double-digit annual price increases now exist in many countries, for an obvious cause. Ultra-low interest rates introduced by central banks to fight threatening recession have triggered an explosion in borrowing for house purchases in many countries.
Observing this, it must be stressed at the outset that from a macro perspective, the crucial issue is not an asset price bubble per se. The key question is whether and to what extent asset owners convert the asset appreciation into higher borrowing and spending. Asset bubbles as such constitute little more than a temporary economic nuisance.
In France, too, where we live, house prices have soared at double-digit rates. But the key feature of a bubble economy - that is, the run of house owners for equity extraction, as in the United States and Britain - is completely missing, even though variable mortgage rates are at a historical low of 3.25%. Remarkably, nobody in France talks of "wealth creation." France certainly has a house price bubble, but it does not have a "bubble economy" in the sense that the rising house prices are used to boost consumer borrowing and spending for other purposes.
In the late 1990s, the U.S. stock market bubble went global. The same has happened in the last few years to the property price bubble. According to reports, full-blown housing bubbles currently exist in many countries around the world. As explained, their common cause is obvious: Ultra-loose monetary policy and ultra-low interest rates. In due time, sharply rising house prices added to the interest incentive.
Under these monetary conditions, it made sense to buy a house.
But to repeat, the pivotal hallmark of a "bubble economy" is that the ballooning asset prices are widely used as collateral for a general consumer borrowing and spending binge. In the United States, mortgage borrowing by households during the first half of the 1990s increased by an annual average of $168 billion. This accelerated in the decade's second half to $296.9 billion. But after 2000, it virtually exploded to an average annual growth rate of $615 billion.
It is undisputed that the greater part of the escalating mortgage borrowing in the United States was for purposes other than house purchases. In short, it boosted consumption as a share of GDP at the expense of business investment and the trade balance. That is, it radically changed the U.S. economy's pattern of growth - actually an unsustainable pattern of growth.
Yet America's consensus, amongst it Mr. Greenspan and the Fed, categorically refuse to see any proof of a "bubble economy."
A recently published survey article by the St. Louis Federal Reserve - Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms - made a most amazing statement in its conclusion: "We find little indication that booms were caused by excessive growth of money and credit, though 19th-century booms tended to occur during periods of monetary expansion. The view that monetary authorities can cause asset market speculation by failing to control the use of credit has been largely discarded."
To quote a commentator: "The complacency of the central banking fraternity and their academic standard-bearers is a wonder to behold."
Regards,
Dr. Kurt Richebächerfor The Daily Reckoning
By Kurt Richebächer
In its Jan. 10 issue, Business Week carried an article, A Gold Medal for the Fed's Inflation Fighters, from Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia Business School and former chief of the president's Council of Economic Advisers. The key point of this article is that "by holding inflation down, the Fed has boosted the economy." We mention this article because it is highly typical of the prevailing systematic disinformation about the U.S. economy.
Given a U.S. inflation rate of 3.3% during 2004, any talk of "ridding the U.S. economy of inflation" is, first of all, grossly misplaced. Even more absurd is the further assumption that the Federal Reserve has distinguished itself as a great inflation fighter.
In actual fact, in the past few years, the Greenspan Fed has systematically and deliberately fostered parabolic credit and financial excess with the explicit purpose of inflating asset prices. What manifestly is duping most people is the fact that the bulk of the credit excess poured into asset prices and the soaring trade deficit, rather than into the CPI, as had been usual.
As we have repeatedly stressed, speaking of inflation requires a distinction between cause and effects. It ordinarily has one and the same cause: excessive creation of money and credit. But its impact on the economy and its price system depends entirely on the specific purposes for which the borrowed money is used. Therefore, its effects may differ immensely.
Principally, credit excess may find three different outlets: first, rising prices of goods and services; second, rising prices of financial and tangible assets; and third, a rising trade deficit.
The conventional focus is exclusively on the first outlet: that is, on the movement of consumer prices, popularly called CPI in America. Amazingly, even most experts flatly deny a causal connection between a rampant credit expansion, rising asset prices and a rising trade deficit. The rampant inflation in U.S. stock and house prices is actually hailed as "wealth creation."
Historically, consumer price inflation has, indeed, been the regular key feature of credit excess. But this pattern began to change drastically in the course of the 1980s. For the first time, protracted, exceptionally sharp increases in stock and real estate prices occurred in various countries, while price increases for goods and services remained moderate.
At first, there was little inclination to see in soaring asset prices a feature of inflation, even though all countries concerned showed a simultaneous surge in money and credit growth. It irritated many experts that this monetary explosion did not show in higher prices for goods and labor, as it had done in past booms. In the late 1980s, Japan had double-digit money, credit growth and soaring asset prices, yet virtually stable consumer and producer prices.
For years, this strange coincidence of soaring asset inflation and simultaneous moderate consumer price inflation was hailed as a sign of economic health and dynamism. It has long been one of Mr. Greenspan's favorite arguments that this unusual coincidence proved the existence of a "new paradigm" economy.
While stock prices have recovered from their lows in 2001, in general, their gains during 2004 were very limited. Instead, a developing property bubble has gone global. Full-blown housing bubbles with double-digit annual price increases now exist in many countries, for an obvious cause. Ultra-low interest rates introduced by central banks to fight threatening recession have triggered an explosion in borrowing for house purchases in many countries.
Observing this, it must be stressed at the outset that from a macro perspective, the crucial issue is not an asset price bubble per se. The key question is whether and to what extent asset owners convert the asset appreciation into higher borrowing and spending. Asset bubbles as such constitute little more than a temporary economic nuisance.
In France, too, where we live, house prices have soared at double-digit rates. But the key feature of a bubble economy - that is, the run of house owners for equity extraction, as in the United States and Britain - is completely missing, even though variable mortgage rates are at a historical low of 3.25%. Remarkably, nobody in France talks of "wealth creation." France certainly has a house price bubble, but it does not have a "bubble economy" in the sense that the rising house prices are used to boost consumer borrowing and spending for other purposes.
In the late 1990s, the U.S. stock market bubble went global. The same has happened in the last few years to the property price bubble. According to reports, full-blown housing bubbles currently exist in many countries around the world. As explained, their common cause is obvious: Ultra-loose monetary policy and ultra-low interest rates. In due time, sharply rising house prices added to the interest incentive.
Under these monetary conditions, it made sense to buy a house.
But to repeat, the pivotal hallmark of a "bubble economy" is that the ballooning asset prices are widely used as collateral for a general consumer borrowing and spending binge. In the United States, mortgage borrowing by households during the first half of the 1990s increased by an annual average of $168 billion. This accelerated in the decade's second half to $296.9 billion. But after 2000, it virtually exploded to an average annual growth rate of $615 billion.
It is undisputed that the greater part of the escalating mortgage borrowing in the United States was for purposes other than house purchases. In short, it boosted consumption as a share of GDP at the expense of business investment and the trade balance. That is, it radically changed the U.S. economy's pattern of growth - actually an unsustainable pattern of growth.
Yet America's consensus, amongst it Mr. Greenspan and the Fed, categorically refuse to see any proof of a "bubble economy."
A recently published survey article by the St. Louis Federal Reserve - Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms - made a most amazing statement in its conclusion: "We find little indication that booms were caused by excessive growth of money and credit, though 19th-century booms tended to occur during periods of monetary expansion. The view that monetary authorities can cause asset market speculation by failing to control the use of credit has been largely discarded."
To quote a commentator: "The complacency of the central banking fraternity and their academic standard-bearers is a wonder to behold."
Regards,
Dr. Kurt Richebächerfor The Daily Reckoning
Saturday, February 05, 2005
THE FURRY PULPIT
DIG a little deeper my friends, is what I ask...5.2% unemployment rate a .2 drop yet we haven't had a single month to give you pause for job growth....in fact mostly this entire 4 year recovery......PEOPLE HAVE DROPPED OUT and are NOW not counted.
ONLY insidious continous reckless FED inflating is holding it together, to be bullish after data like they were on friday is not only assinine it shows total lack of understanding (or maybe it's me!).
A precipitous DOLLAR depreciation and yet the GULF between inports and exports has never been GREATER.Businesses are investing.....just not here. CHEAP goods come back here......PUMPING up the profit volume....and on the multi nationals (a paper chase) but it's effects here are OBVIOUS and lacking.
Instead of business investing HERE....there is NO VELOCITY to money and is why when I show that chart it looks LIMP....it needs an erection pump!Without "multiplier effect" (FEB Contrary Investor) the normal POSITIVE FOLLOW THRU is vapid.Proof is FLACID wage growth as spending outstrips wage gains as anemic as they are.....and is why we stand at a heroic HISTORIC level of total credit market debt to GDP.
Greenspan's at it again trying to REPEAT ad nauseum a US economy ADDICTED like HEROIN on a flood of worthless dollars inflating money supply in CRISIS amounts.As we have already had historic growth in auto's and housing.....we get MORE of the same? Is that what market said Friday.....FED will STOP raising rates and we like that? maybe so.
But that would and it might DISTORT even more historic distortions and misallocations........we keep HEAPING them on top of each other to an unsustainable mess.There is REAL inflation in our society, any figure shown by GOV is manipulated.However, an already overbought Bond market is near inverted!
Many things signalling a coming Recession...at the least.NEW HIGHS....a bad thing?.....energy stocks...housing.....and BOND FUNDS...as BONDS hit new highs so do the funds!BUT the muscle the kings the generals? the CORE of our economy?MSFT INTC DD GE GM WMT and on and on...MUCH closer to their 52 week lows than highs....or at least certainly NOT leading the charge.
It may just be that this additional foray into low rates might keep the mess afloat...OK.....but the ending I write is still out there waiting.This country will again be a leader in things that matter...but in my mind not until the Federal reserve System is seen for what it is....and the idiots are thrown out!Not until there is BALANCE to our system.
We have plummeting productivity....we have no wage growth......we have weak job growth.....we have cost of home ownership and basic living standards rising sharply....we have signs of deflation also.....we STILL have HISTORIC BULLISHNESS....we have NO bottom in by ANY historic standard....we have trouble.
Duratek still the ultimate optmists pessimist
ONLY insidious continous reckless FED inflating is holding it together, to be bullish after data like they were on friday is not only assinine it shows total lack of understanding (or maybe it's me!).
A precipitous DOLLAR depreciation and yet the GULF between inports and exports has never been GREATER.Businesses are investing.....just not here. CHEAP goods come back here......PUMPING up the profit volume....and on the multi nationals (a paper chase) but it's effects here are OBVIOUS and lacking.
Instead of business investing HERE....there is NO VELOCITY to money and is why when I show that chart it looks LIMP....it needs an erection pump!Without "multiplier effect" (FEB Contrary Investor) the normal POSITIVE FOLLOW THRU is vapid.Proof is FLACID wage growth as spending outstrips wage gains as anemic as they are.....and is why we stand at a heroic HISTORIC level of total credit market debt to GDP.
Greenspan's at it again trying to REPEAT ad nauseum a US economy ADDICTED like HEROIN on a flood of worthless dollars inflating money supply in CRISIS amounts.As we have already had historic growth in auto's and housing.....we get MORE of the same? Is that what market said Friday.....FED will STOP raising rates and we like that? maybe so.
But that would and it might DISTORT even more historic distortions and misallocations........we keep HEAPING them on top of each other to an unsustainable mess.There is REAL inflation in our society, any figure shown by GOV is manipulated.However, an already overbought Bond market is near inverted!
Many things signalling a coming Recession...at the least.NEW HIGHS....a bad thing?.....energy stocks...housing.....and BOND FUNDS...as BONDS hit new highs so do the funds!BUT the muscle the kings the generals? the CORE of our economy?MSFT INTC DD GE GM WMT and on and on...MUCH closer to their 52 week lows than highs....or at least certainly NOT leading the charge.
It may just be that this additional foray into low rates might keep the mess afloat...OK.....but the ending I write is still out there waiting.This country will again be a leader in things that matter...but in my mind not until the Federal reserve System is seen for what it is....and the idiots are thrown out!Not until there is BALANCE to our system.
We have plummeting productivity....we have no wage growth......we have weak job growth.....we have cost of home ownership and basic living standards rising sharply....we have signs of deflation also.....we STILL have HISTORIC BULLISHNESS....we have NO bottom in by ANY historic standard....we have trouble.
Duratek still the ultimate optmists pessimist
Friday, February 04, 2005
PSSTTTTTT Air coming OUT of BUBBLE?
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Repost of this monthly rant, in case anyone missed it. Market leading indicator?
When I looked at these charts.....does it not seem to clear to everyone....the jig is up?IMHO, what can investors NOT get enough of? The reflation trade....OIL....steel...tankers...IMHO ready for major decline....commodities...financials....home builders.
This AM's DATA? Decline in work week hours, revised downward last months job data...a miss in this month's job growth. A drop of .2 in EMployment to 5.2% so what gives? MORE gave uP!
Duratek
Repost of this monthly rant, in case anyone missed it. Market leading indicator?
When I looked at these charts.....does it not seem to clear to everyone....the jig is up?IMHO, what can investors NOT get enough of? The reflation trade....OIL....steel...tankers...IMHO ready for major decline....commodities...financials....home builders.
This AM's DATA? Decline in work week hours, revised downward last months job data...a miss in this month's job growth. A drop of .2 in EMployment to 5.2% so what gives? MORE gave uP!
Duratek
Thursday, February 03, 2005
Chad Hudson
Higher Interest Rates and Slower Earnings Growth
by Chad Hudson
The Federal Reserve increased its target rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. This was the sixth consecutive increase. The Fed only omitted the word "earlier" in its description of rising oil prices, otherwise the language of the release was exactly the same. With the FOMC meeting being a non-event for most investors, the last week of earnings season was focus of the week. After last week, just over half of the S&P 500 reporting fourth quarter earnings. Growth estimates for the fourth quarter jumped to 18%, from 16.5% the prior week. Unfortunately, estimates for the current quarter dropped again. Earnings growth for the first quarter of 2005 for the S&P 500 is expected to be 6.6%, down from 7.3% last week and 7.6% at the beginning of the year.
The steel companies achieved tremendous operating leverage during 2004 as the price of steel more than doubled. This continued during the fourth quarter. At US Steel, sales jumped 51% in the fourth quarter and EPS was $3.55 compared to at loss of $0.26 per share last year. AK Steel reported that revenue increased 36%. Higher prices drove most of the increases, which were up 31% compared to last year, volume increased 4%. The company expects prices to increase another 8% from the fourth quarter to the first quarter 2005. It also reversed a $0.31 per share loss last year to a $0.68 gain. Steel companies remain optimistic and expect demand and prices to remain at current levels. While it should be expected for the steel companies to be optimistic, most of their customers do not see much relief from the high prices either. Eaton said, "We don't anticipate we're going to see significant metals cost retrenchment during 2005. The strong production requirements in each of our end markets, the continued strong demand, are tending to put a demand floor underneath the demand for metals, and frankly, for oil as well." Caterpillar echoed similar comments, "As we enter 2005, we are not anticipating significant steel price declines until the second half of the year at the earliest. We expect our costs for the first half of 2005 will appear substantially higher than costs in the first half of 2004 because the comparison will contain the relatively low steel cost experienced at that time."
New home sales in December were 1.098 million units, below economists' estimates of 1.2 million. It was the first time there were two consecutive months with sales below 1.1 million annualized units since May 2003. Last week, existing home sales for December also came in below forecasts. In contrast, the homebuilders are reporting earnings that are exceeding analysts' forecasts. Centex earned $1.91, three cents better than analyst. Beazer Homes beat Wall Street's forecast of $4.36 per share by $0.34. DR Horton earned $1.01 per share, more than 8% better than analysts forecasted. Bucking the trend, NVR failed to meet expectations. While earnings increased 35% from last year, the company earned $20.13 per shares, which missed estimates of $20.72. While most homebuilders beat estimates and guided analysts higher, sales in the Midwest was mentioned several times as the one area of weakness. Additionally, homebuilders are not expecting substantial price increases this year.
While the homebuilders are optimistic about sales this year, companies that supply homebuilders are much more cautious. Eaton said, "overall feeling is that US housing starts down about 6%." They admit that they "have been wrong the last three years. We thought it would start to come off and it has not come off." Cooper Industries shared a similar view, "We are pretty convinced that the residential markets have peaked&We think they are going to be probably off a bit in 2005 vs. 2004."
UPS reported that December was slow, especially the period from December 22 until the end of the year. The company attributed part of the weakness to bad weather. The question of bad weather was raised during the Yellow Roadway conference call and it was answered, "It obviously impacted us, but it's an outdoor sport. We try no tot whine too much about the weather."
Rohm & Haas, the worlds largest producer of acrylics used in paint and plastic, reported that fourth quarter sales jumped 13%. Increased volume accounted for 4%, higher prices added 6% and a weaker dollar contributed 3%. Newell Rubbermaid was negatively affected by price increases that the chemical companies are passing through. During its conference call it detailed by each quarter how higher raw materials impacted the company. It said it budgeted $20 million for higher raw materials at the beginning of the year. It experienced $21 million just in the first quarter. The second quarter was $18 million, before accelerating in the third and fourth quarters. The company spent an additional $31 million during the third quarter and $46 million in the fourth. During the fourth quarter, the company was able to more than offset the increase in raw materials due to a $21 million increase in pricing and $37 million in productivity. Newell does not see any relief in 2005. In fact, it expects to spend an additional $170 million on raw materials than it did in 2004, which was up $116 million.
Chicago PMI showed that the manufacturing activity in the Chicago area strengthened slightly in January. The headline number rose half a point to 62.4. Production, new orders and employment all rose while backorders, inventories, supplier delivery and prices paid all declined, but remained over 50. The national ISM survey was weaker and showed that the pace of growth slowed in January. The headline number fell 2.2 points to 56.4. This was the lowest reading since September 2003. Most of the decline was due to a 9.1 point drop in new orders. It was the lowest level since June 2003. The pace of production increased, reversing a four-month decline. But it only increased 0.9 points. The employment component jumped 4.8 points, which was the largest increase since August 2001. Prices dropped 3.0 points, but remain at very high at 69. Even after declining for the past eight months, the headline number represents a growing manufacturing sector. It has been above 55 since August 2003. This is the strongest the survey has been since 1987-1998 when 20 out of 22 months were above 55.
Along with the ISM survey that reported an improved labor market, the latest job-cut report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas said there were 92,350 announced job cuts in January. This was the lowest number of layoffs since August and the lowest number of layoffs announced in January since 2000. Additionally, there were announcements to hire almost 30,000 workers, up from 21,262 in December.
After earnings, the big focus for the week is Friday's nonfarm payroll report. Economists currently expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 200,000. There has been quite a bit of anecdotal evidence showing the labor market continued to improve in January and it appears that the economy is expanding and an increase in payrolls should not be a surprise. There is also evidence that the labor market is tighter than the current data reveal. This along with the pricing pressure throughout the manufacturing will either pressure margins or lead to higher inflation. It is doubtful that the economy will be able to continue to expand without inflation pressure or margin compression. This will happen at the same time as earnings growth slows and should have a negative impact on earnings multiples.
Chad HudsonMid-Week AnalysisPrudentBear.com
by Chad Hudson
The Federal Reserve increased its target rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. This was the sixth consecutive increase. The Fed only omitted the word "earlier" in its description of rising oil prices, otherwise the language of the release was exactly the same. With the FOMC meeting being a non-event for most investors, the last week of earnings season was focus of the week. After last week, just over half of the S&P 500 reporting fourth quarter earnings. Growth estimates for the fourth quarter jumped to 18%, from 16.5% the prior week. Unfortunately, estimates for the current quarter dropped again. Earnings growth for the first quarter of 2005 for the S&P 500 is expected to be 6.6%, down from 7.3% last week and 7.6% at the beginning of the year.
The steel companies achieved tremendous operating leverage during 2004 as the price of steel more than doubled. This continued during the fourth quarter. At US Steel, sales jumped 51% in the fourth quarter and EPS was $3.55 compared to at loss of $0.26 per share last year. AK Steel reported that revenue increased 36%. Higher prices drove most of the increases, which were up 31% compared to last year, volume increased 4%. The company expects prices to increase another 8% from the fourth quarter to the first quarter 2005. It also reversed a $0.31 per share loss last year to a $0.68 gain. Steel companies remain optimistic and expect demand and prices to remain at current levels. While it should be expected for the steel companies to be optimistic, most of their customers do not see much relief from the high prices either. Eaton said, "We don't anticipate we're going to see significant metals cost retrenchment during 2005. The strong production requirements in each of our end markets, the continued strong demand, are tending to put a demand floor underneath the demand for metals, and frankly, for oil as well." Caterpillar echoed similar comments, "As we enter 2005, we are not anticipating significant steel price declines until the second half of the year at the earliest. We expect our costs for the first half of 2005 will appear substantially higher than costs in the first half of 2004 because the comparison will contain the relatively low steel cost experienced at that time."
New home sales in December were 1.098 million units, below economists' estimates of 1.2 million. It was the first time there were two consecutive months with sales below 1.1 million annualized units since May 2003. Last week, existing home sales for December also came in below forecasts. In contrast, the homebuilders are reporting earnings that are exceeding analysts' forecasts. Centex earned $1.91, three cents better than analyst. Beazer Homes beat Wall Street's forecast of $4.36 per share by $0.34. DR Horton earned $1.01 per share, more than 8% better than analysts forecasted. Bucking the trend, NVR failed to meet expectations. While earnings increased 35% from last year, the company earned $20.13 per shares, which missed estimates of $20.72. While most homebuilders beat estimates and guided analysts higher, sales in the Midwest was mentioned several times as the one area of weakness. Additionally, homebuilders are not expecting substantial price increases this year.
While the homebuilders are optimistic about sales this year, companies that supply homebuilders are much more cautious. Eaton said, "overall feeling is that US housing starts down about 6%." They admit that they "have been wrong the last three years. We thought it would start to come off and it has not come off." Cooper Industries shared a similar view, "We are pretty convinced that the residential markets have peaked&We think they are going to be probably off a bit in 2005 vs. 2004."
UPS reported that December was slow, especially the period from December 22 until the end of the year. The company attributed part of the weakness to bad weather. The question of bad weather was raised during the Yellow Roadway conference call and it was answered, "It obviously impacted us, but it's an outdoor sport. We try no tot whine too much about the weather."
Rohm & Haas, the worlds largest producer of acrylics used in paint and plastic, reported that fourth quarter sales jumped 13%. Increased volume accounted for 4%, higher prices added 6% and a weaker dollar contributed 3%. Newell Rubbermaid was negatively affected by price increases that the chemical companies are passing through. During its conference call it detailed by each quarter how higher raw materials impacted the company. It said it budgeted $20 million for higher raw materials at the beginning of the year. It experienced $21 million just in the first quarter. The second quarter was $18 million, before accelerating in the third and fourth quarters. The company spent an additional $31 million during the third quarter and $46 million in the fourth. During the fourth quarter, the company was able to more than offset the increase in raw materials due to a $21 million increase in pricing and $37 million in productivity. Newell does not see any relief in 2005. In fact, it expects to spend an additional $170 million on raw materials than it did in 2004, which was up $116 million.
Chicago PMI showed that the manufacturing activity in the Chicago area strengthened slightly in January. The headline number rose half a point to 62.4. Production, new orders and employment all rose while backorders, inventories, supplier delivery and prices paid all declined, but remained over 50. The national ISM survey was weaker and showed that the pace of growth slowed in January. The headline number fell 2.2 points to 56.4. This was the lowest reading since September 2003. Most of the decline was due to a 9.1 point drop in new orders. It was the lowest level since June 2003. The pace of production increased, reversing a four-month decline. But it only increased 0.9 points. The employment component jumped 4.8 points, which was the largest increase since August 2001. Prices dropped 3.0 points, but remain at very high at 69. Even after declining for the past eight months, the headline number represents a growing manufacturing sector. It has been above 55 since August 2003. This is the strongest the survey has been since 1987-1998 when 20 out of 22 months were above 55.
Along with the ISM survey that reported an improved labor market, the latest job-cut report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas said there were 92,350 announced job cuts in January. This was the lowest number of layoffs since August and the lowest number of layoffs announced in January since 2000. Additionally, there were announcements to hire almost 30,000 workers, up from 21,262 in December.
After earnings, the big focus for the week is Friday's nonfarm payroll report. Economists currently expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 200,000. There has been quite a bit of anecdotal evidence showing the labor market continued to improve in January and it appears that the economy is expanding and an increase in payrolls should not be a surprise. There is also evidence that the labor market is tighter than the current data reveal. This along with the pricing pressure throughout the manufacturing will either pressure margins or lead to higher inflation. It is doubtful that the economy will be able to continue to expand without inflation pressure or margin compression. This will happen at the same time as earnings growth slows and should have a negative impact on earnings multiples.
Chad HudsonMid-Week AnalysisPrudentBear.com
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
Forbes "GURU'S
http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletters/2005/02/01/cz_mr_0201gurupicks.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=
Damn, I saw CYD had fallen to below $10....it popped today! $12.40 DOH!
I hadn't started this site to list my stock plays, but perhaps I could begin to list some of the longs I often consider. AS above and some of my other posts, they aren't JUST about my bearish leanings.
Duratek
Damn, I saw CYD had fallen to below $10....it popped today! $12.40 DOH!
I hadn't started this site to list my stock plays, but perhaps I could begin to list some of the longs I often consider. AS above and some of my other posts, they aren't JUST about my bearish leanings.
Duratek
CASH IS KING?
Reading a recent intelligent essay my thoughts really crystal1ised.(a Z?)
It comes down to WHAT are the GROSS MAJORITY of people doing and thinking?
What is the concensus of expert opinion?That Interest RAtes will go UP and CASH is TRASH now even the 2 big Mesiah's of money GATES and BUFFET have even placed BETS! the dollar is DOOMED and EVERYONE KNOWS IT!
99 out of 100 economists expect Interest rates to go UP....who is guessing they go down as the FED RAISES?? Hardly a sole!YET LONG rates have COMPRESSED from 4.9% to about 4.14% since the FED began to RAISE!!!???
MUTUAL FUNS CASH LEVELS is at all time LOWS SIMILAR to CASH at MARKETS TOPS.THERE IS NO SAVINGS OF CASH IN the US!...savings at HISTORIC LOWS....Just as DEBT is 25% ABOVE PREVIOUS 100 yr highs, maybe HISTORIC HIGHS as % of anything GDP etc.YET.......just as in 1999-2000 avg investor in 2005 has ONLY about 15% or LESS in BONDS and about 75% approx in STOCKS and some cash......almost ALL mutual funds are 100% invested!
SO what more PROOF do you need in the bullishness and complacency of the investing world?ALMOST ALL POLLED saw 2005 as an UP year with MOST knowing of the year ending in FIVE saga! so we saw a SHOOTPILE of CASH committed to the markets at year end 2004 on top of MM gluttany for larger bonus' and riding the BUSH and Santa rally.....YET Jan was a DOWN month????!!!!!
Cash is "Prince" my ass ...CASH is KING!!!! and the FOWL revolting MASS opinion towards it puts it there!AT a time where most are over leveradged with DEBT....and have NO cash or CUSHION cept Housing valuation......what IF the attitude towards the dollar begins to change.???
ASSETS MUST be sold to acquire more dollars...stocks and housing...esepcially those bought for mere speculation.......MANY now have SECOND homes or are investing in REAL ESTATE....the most ILL LIQUID investment.....but no mumur yet? Housing IS slowing.....MEDIAN HOME PRICES are falling in many areas.....an early warning?
IF the individual POLLED has same % of bonds as in 1999-2000 then WHO are WHO'S buying to bring rates DOWN!~!!!????Is it the "smart money?" IS it the FEd and central banks?" It is ASIA?
IF OUR US economy runs on almost 80% CONSUMPTION....and ability to TAKE ON MORE DEBT (as savings are near ZERO) and we are at historic highs in almost ALL expansionary categories........HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN IT GO before THAT trend debt and credit expansion ENDS??
INVESTMENT won't pick up because we have NO savings, the FED made sure that SAVINGS was the LAST thing an American wanted to do by tAKING AWAY the YIELD to do so....they left NO SAFE INVESTMENT cept a CD...paying near nothing.
You'll hear tonight how the BUSH adm is going to FIX everything....do not expect to hear how or with what it will be paid for.......SS private accts are for the WALL STREET MADE CROWD......diverting MUST payments for future committments to a portion of younger generation at a cost of $2 trillion.....to an already impossible deficit situation.....could that additonal debt need BREAK the bond markets back finally?
USUALLY the DEMAND for DEBT increases the price paid for such as for anything....we are already using almost ALL of the WORLD'S SAVINGS!!!!!"cash is Prince" my ass! CASH is KING!
SPECULATION in this over bloated over loved stock market should come to an end and position NOW for a coming trend change that could take us to who knows where, IMHO
KNOWING how unloved and despised the US DOLLAR is......even those calling for oversold rally see it's eventual DEMISE (and maybe so)......where should YOU be when that demand becomes apparent to the masses?
This is one of those times IMHO where being early.....is not so bad.....just my opinion and thoughts FWIW BWDIK
It comes down to WHAT are the GROSS MAJORITY of people doing and thinking?
What is the concensus of expert opinion?That Interest RAtes will go UP and CASH is TRASH now even the 2 big Mesiah's of money GATES and BUFFET have even placed BETS! the dollar is DOOMED and EVERYONE KNOWS IT!
99 out of 100 economists expect Interest rates to go UP....who is guessing they go down as the FED RAISES?? Hardly a sole!YET LONG rates have COMPRESSED from 4.9% to about 4.14% since the FED began to RAISE!!!???
MUTUAL FUNS CASH LEVELS is at all time LOWS SIMILAR to CASH at MARKETS TOPS.THERE IS NO SAVINGS OF CASH IN the US!...savings at HISTORIC LOWS....Just as DEBT is 25% ABOVE PREVIOUS 100 yr highs, maybe HISTORIC HIGHS as % of anything GDP etc.YET.......just as in 1999-2000 avg investor in 2005 has ONLY about 15% or LESS in BONDS and about 75% approx in STOCKS and some cash......almost ALL mutual funds are 100% invested!
SO what more PROOF do you need in the bullishness and complacency of the investing world?ALMOST ALL POLLED saw 2005 as an UP year with MOST knowing of the year ending in FIVE saga! so we saw a SHOOTPILE of CASH committed to the markets at year end 2004 on top of MM gluttany for larger bonus' and riding the BUSH and Santa rally.....YET Jan was a DOWN month????!!!!!
Cash is "Prince" my ass ...CASH is KING!!!! and the FOWL revolting MASS opinion towards it puts it there!AT a time where most are over leveradged with DEBT....and have NO cash or CUSHION cept Housing valuation......what IF the attitude towards the dollar begins to change.???
ASSETS MUST be sold to acquire more dollars...stocks and housing...esepcially those bought for mere speculation.......MANY now have SECOND homes or are investing in REAL ESTATE....the most ILL LIQUID investment.....but no mumur yet? Housing IS slowing.....MEDIAN HOME PRICES are falling in many areas.....an early warning?
IF the individual POLLED has same % of bonds as in 1999-2000 then WHO are WHO'S buying to bring rates DOWN!~!!!????Is it the "smart money?" IS it the FEd and central banks?" It is ASIA?
IF OUR US economy runs on almost 80% CONSUMPTION....and ability to TAKE ON MORE DEBT (as savings are near ZERO) and we are at historic highs in almost ALL expansionary categories........HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN IT GO before THAT trend debt and credit expansion ENDS??
INVESTMENT won't pick up because we have NO savings, the FED made sure that SAVINGS was the LAST thing an American wanted to do by tAKING AWAY the YIELD to do so....they left NO SAFE INVESTMENT cept a CD...paying near nothing.
You'll hear tonight how the BUSH adm is going to FIX everything....do not expect to hear how or with what it will be paid for.......SS private accts are for the WALL STREET MADE CROWD......diverting MUST payments for future committments to a portion of younger generation at a cost of $2 trillion.....to an already impossible deficit situation.....could that additonal debt need BREAK the bond markets back finally?
USUALLY the DEMAND for DEBT increases the price paid for such as for anything....we are already using almost ALL of the WORLD'S SAVINGS!!!!!"cash is Prince" my ass! CASH is KING!
SPECULATION in this over bloated over loved stock market should come to an end and position NOW for a coming trend change that could take us to who knows where, IMHO
KNOWING how unloved and despised the US DOLLAR is......even those calling for oversold rally see it's eventual DEMISE (and maybe so)......where should YOU be when that demand becomes apparent to the masses?
This is one of those times IMHO where being early.....is not so bad.....just my opinion and thoughts FWIW BWDIK
From NOV Elliott Wave Theorist
Bob Prechter unveiled the EWI Stable Currency Benchmark in his November 2004 Elliott Wave Theorist. The SCB is beginning to attract attention, so I thought you and your viewers would enjoy reading Bob's description.
Click here for a free excerpt from the November Theorist issue.
Click here for a free excerpt from the November Theorist issue.
Tuesday, February 01, 2005
Does Internet Advertising Work?
http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/iadc0222.pdf
That was then, read a Morgan Stanley 2001 report.....I dig it....you read it.
Duratek
That was then, read a Morgan Stanley 2001 report.....I dig it....you read it.
Duratek
Monday, January 31, 2005
Sunday, January 30, 2005
Bloomberg News Jan 30th
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=atqt4jibCSAM&refer=us
IS job growth REALLY picking up? The Gov. will use seasonal adjustments to manipulate the number, so there is no way to tell for sure, IMHO.
With a much weaker GDP number than expected, It is not plain that the economy is on th eroad to sustainable growth.
MSFT dividend payout will also DISTORT data.
Monday will indeed be VERY INTERESTING, I FULLY expected a triple digit rally, anything less or a close in RED will be ominous, IMHO
D
IS job growth REALLY picking up? The Gov. will use seasonal adjustments to manipulate the number, so there is no way to tell for sure, IMHO.
With a much weaker GDP number than expected, It is not plain that the economy is on th eroad to sustainable growth.
MSFT dividend payout will also DISTORT data.
Monday will indeed be VERY INTERESTING, I FULLY expected a triple digit rally, anything less or a close in RED will be ominous, IMHO
D
Long Waves Come Crashing Ashore?
Isn't there a song..."never on a Sunday a Sunday...yada yada dah..."Just like our parents who didn't do this or that when we were little.....you put that aside forgive and move on or you never do.
I spoke my mind about Bush,I felt the way I did then.....I now look forward, maybe not liking the deceit, but the ends to those means.As the Iraqi's stared down death and threaths and fear and said YES to a voice and NO to terror of the few over the many.Do we want to pilfer their natural resources? do we have alterior motives? debate that but not the turnout, not the desire of any opressed people to rise above thier tortured past.
Wouldn't the N.Koreans like a voice in their country? to be PART of the global economy? to have individual rights? BUT we won't go in there.Send a few missles in.....or bust down the damn door? I suppose Bush HAD to cover up his real reasons or he would not have been able to do what he has done.A LONG way to go, but much of the world criticism must melt away in the face of the Iraqi voice.WILL the markets see this as a winner? as clear sailing ahead? No one day rally won't answer that....but more chance with wind in pushing the sails, then swirling around directionless.
I don't see how any sane person for at least a day couldn't see what is happening as positive.Country was in LOCK DOWN mode, when that is eased, we may see more violence, and the old guard is many still.IS THIS VOTE a vote for democracy or a vote to allow Iraqi's to vote OUT AMERICA? will we hear from the people as to why they voted and what they want?Is the VOTE actually a victory for the potential of another Fundamentalist state? Wouldn't that be a victory for the wrong reasons as seen by Bush?He has said the US will not allow an Iranian style State, but WHAT IF that is what the "MAJORITY" wants? Isn't Democracy the ability to choose? as well as allowing the individual to retain his or her rights of freedom?We see the beginning today, not the end, with the toughest test ahead to build a concensus which includes everyone....not an easy task with such diverse groups with potentially differing wants.
Papa has always said he would rather be BULLISH any day of the week, I have posted my feelings of not my wishes but of the reality I see.No, I am afraid when the smoke clears, we will have to look hard at ourselves and begin healing our own world, one abound in malinvestments and savings none.Seeing monies that might not be diverted toward war and Iraq would be a positive thing, but $100 Billion PALES in comparison to the unfunded liabilities in the 10's of $trillions.....of which SOMEONE'S will have to eventually pay.
A Government that is now beginning to take some punch away from punch bowl, and a slowdown here is inevitable.....but I am uncertain when the arkets will begin to show us our folly.IF VOLUME and BREADTH increases, and the momentum follows through.....good vibes beget good vibes.....could carry through the end of the good 6 months of markets.IBM INTC MSFT AAPL GE EBAY, the giants have all done what they could, but ALL have led to narry a rally.....this I observe is troublesome.SO as I ponder all the things I do, al we need do is hear the voice of millions voting in the markets.....for a time at least we might forget we are at near an end of an historic expansion in credit and debt....st some point the pendulum will swing the other way to contraction....not a damn thing I/we say or do is going to stop the long waves from crashing ashore.
I spoke my mind about Bush,I felt the way I did then.....I now look forward, maybe not liking the deceit, but the ends to those means.As the Iraqi's stared down death and threaths and fear and said YES to a voice and NO to terror of the few over the many.Do we want to pilfer their natural resources? do we have alterior motives? debate that but not the turnout, not the desire of any opressed people to rise above thier tortured past.
Wouldn't the N.Koreans like a voice in their country? to be PART of the global economy? to have individual rights? BUT we won't go in there.Send a few missles in.....or bust down the damn door? I suppose Bush HAD to cover up his real reasons or he would not have been able to do what he has done.A LONG way to go, but much of the world criticism must melt away in the face of the Iraqi voice.WILL the markets see this as a winner? as clear sailing ahead? No one day rally won't answer that....but more chance with wind in pushing the sails, then swirling around directionless.
I don't see how any sane person for at least a day couldn't see what is happening as positive.Country was in LOCK DOWN mode, when that is eased, we may see more violence, and the old guard is many still.IS THIS VOTE a vote for democracy or a vote to allow Iraqi's to vote OUT AMERICA? will we hear from the people as to why they voted and what they want?Is the VOTE actually a victory for the potential of another Fundamentalist state? Wouldn't that be a victory for the wrong reasons as seen by Bush?He has said the US will not allow an Iranian style State, but WHAT IF that is what the "MAJORITY" wants? Isn't Democracy the ability to choose? as well as allowing the individual to retain his or her rights of freedom?We see the beginning today, not the end, with the toughest test ahead to build a concensus which includes everyone....not an easy task with such diverse groups with potentially differing wants.
Papa has always said he would rather be BULLISH any day of the week, I have posted my feelings of not my wishes but of the reality I see.No, I am afraid when the smoke clears, we will have to look hard at ourselves and begin healing our own world, one abound in malinvestments and savings none.Seeing monies that might not be diverted toward war and Iraq would be a positive thing, but $100 Billion PALES in comparison to the unfunded liabilities in the 10's of $trillions.....of which SOMEONE'S will have to eventually pay.
A Government that is now beginning to take some punch away from punch bowl, and a slowdown here is inevitable.....but I am uncertain when the arkets will begin to show us our folly.IF VOLUME and BREADTH increases, and the momentum follows through.....good vibes beget good vibes.....could carry through the end of the good 6 months of markets.IBM INTC MSFT AAPL GE EBAY, the giants have all done what they could, but ALL have led to narry a rally.....this I observe is troublesome.SO as I ponder all the things I do, al we need do is hear the voice of millions voting in the markets.....for a time at least we might forget we are at near an end of an historic expansion in credit and debt....st some point the pendulum will swing the other way to contraction....not a damn thing I/we say or do is going to stop the long waves from crashing ashore.
IMHO
Duratek
HISTORIC IRAQI VOTE
SUrely we went in for alternative purposes, but after HARD, LONG, thought, Bush Middle East MASTER PLAN regardless of the lies to accomplish it, the ends justify the means.When it counted.....the FREE spirit of the IRAQI people, even though voting who politicians they never met nor knew.....it was the ACT of the vote not who it was for that is compelling.WHO wouldn't choose a CHANCE for freedom over a wicked evil emporer?
WHO cares if minority Suni's withold vote, they have oppressed the majority long enough?This IS a roadmap for EVENTUAL US pullout, in maybe 3-4 years,IMHO.THIS WILL be seen as used as you will see in the SPX and NAZ futures PITS when they open this evening, the extent of such will show how the voe has gone in the minds of the playa's.3.1 GDP a distant memory to the NEW WORLD ORDER has begun......like a SEED planted to kill cancer, has the US succeeded in doing just that?
The markets SHOULD rally HARD into next weeks State of the Union, regardless of market history or valuations or anything else, THE VOTE may turn market sentiment.....in a big way.SO, I will be watching the action for the STRENGTH and CONVICTION of this momentum should it certainly arrive.......and fighting might just be a fools game.And we will see if fundamentals (slowing economy overburdoned with debt etc) will be trumped by the NEW WORLD ORDER.
EVEN as I say this, the other side of coin is troublesome, new book out shows how the rich has gotten MUCH richer last 20 years as the bottom 90% has gone basically NOWEHRE....very compelling data. ("cheating America?" not sure of title but it is mostly about tax system)ANYTHING LESS than a sustainable rally from this.....will be trouble, but I don't think it likely...we shall soon see.
WHO cares if minority Suni's withold vote, they have oppressed the majority long enough?This IS a roadmap for EVENTUAL US pullout, in maybe 3-4 years,IMHO.THIS WILL be seen as used as you will see in the SPX and NAZ futures PITS when they open this evening, the extent of such will show how the voe has gone in the minds of the playa's.3.1 GDP a distant memory to the NEW WORLD ORDER has begun......like a SEED planted to kill cancer, has the US succeeded in doing just that?
The markets SHOULD rally HARD into next weeks State of the Union, regardless of market history or valuations or anything else, THE VOTE may turn market sentiment.....in a big way.SO, I will be watching the action for the STRENGTH and CONVICTION of this momentum should it certainly arrive.......and fighting might just be a fools game.And we will see if fundamentals (slowing economy overburdoned with debt etc) will be trumped by the NEW WORLD ORDER.
EVEN as I say this, the other side of coin is troublesome, new book out shows how the rich has gotten MUCH richer last 20 years as the bottom 90% has gone basically NOWEHRE....very compelling data. ("cheating America?" not sure of title but it is mostly about tax system)ANYTHING LESS than a sustainable rally from this.....will be trouble, but I don't think it likely...we shall soon see.
Duratek
Friday, January 28, 2005
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK
I can see clear a rally lasting ALL of next week.....if IRAQI elections go "rather" OK and BUSH can deliver an UPBEAT STATE....and people buy into it.It is not going to be easy for him to pass most of his 4 yr initiatives.
4 yr cycle high is probably already here, IMHO market if this holds true again should bottom in 2006.I am concerned, should I be long (not yet)that the market has now snubbed earnings news from INTC IBM EBAY and MSFT, none of which ignited any kind of TECH rally or otherwise, in the case of EBAY it got its head lopped off by $20.
MSFT news, even with "nervousness" about IRAQ elections Sunday, should have been near to the days highs! but it closed little changed from 4PM Thursday close, it was up over .50 THURSDAY A.H. which was really a yawner when you consider "record earnings".
If I was a real grouch I might consider all this a sign of a top in earnings, not the beginning of something good and progressing.And I wonder(dangerous) if the market senses that SOON we should be seeing what earnings look like with STOCK OPTIONS EXPENSED.....even though the comparisons will come without.....but I bet you.....there will be a lot of what if earnings.36 soldiers DIE, the market rose that day.
Iraqi elections go off OK, how does that make things better here? How does that help US economy? deficits? debt? lack of savings etc?WHAT IF...........there is a weak turnout?
ASIAN markets overnight Sunday would be good place to look for how it will be taken.
UNless they ASK US to leave, the election per se does nothing for getting US Out any earlier, IMHO BUT....if the ones playing see blue skies, up she will go.....maybe with a tad of wind in her sails.....I will be open to that potential.
AS no guarantee, and other market fundamentals as I see them....I rather NOT position, and wait and see.
Duratek
4 yr cycle high is probably already here, IMHO market if this holds true again should bottom in 2006.I am concerned, should I be long (not yet)that the market has now snubbed earnings news from INTC IBM EBAY and MSFT, none of which ignited any kind of TECH rally or otherwise, in the case of EBAY it got its head lopped off by $20.
MSFT news, even with "nervousness" about IRAQ elections Sunday, should have been near to the days highs! but it closed little changed from 4PM Thursday close, it was up over .50 THURSDAY A.H. which was really a yawner when you consider "record earnings".
If I was a real grouch I might consider all this a sign of a top in earnings, not the beginning of something good and progressing.And I wonder(dangerous) if the market senses that SOON we should be seeing what earnings look like with STOCK OPTIONS EXPENSED.....even though the comparisons will come without.....but I bet you.....there will be a lot of what if earnings.36 soldiers DIE, the market rose that day.
Iraqi elections go off OK, how does that make things better here? How does that help US economy? deficits? debt? lack of savings etc?WHAT IF...........there is a weak turnout?
ASIAN markets overnight Sunday would be good place to look for how it will be taken.
UNless they ASK US to leave, the election per se does nothing for getting US Out any earlier, IMHO BUT....if the ones playing see blue skies, up she will go.....maybe with a tad of wind in her sails.....I will be open to that potential.
AS no guarantee, and other market fundamentals as I see them....I rather NOT position, and wait and see.
Duratek
FROM BEA site this AM GDP Data and my comments
"..... The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were personalconsumption expenditures (PCE), equipment and software, private inventory investment, andgovernment spending. The contributions of these components were partly offset by a negativecontribution from exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn inexports of goods, an acceleration in imports of goods, and a deceleration in PCE for durable goods thatwere partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.48 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in realGDP after contributing 0.18 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle outputcontributed 0.87 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after contributing 0.34percentage point to the third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,increased 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent inthe fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified.*
*ADD IN HEDONIC PRICING and other gov statistical BS manipulation seasonally adjusted shickanery.....THE US IS ONLY country using HEDONIC pricing....they MUST look better than rest of world to attract debt lovers.....so REAL WORLD US growth is anemic and is MOSTLY debt accelerated consumer consuming...we need LESS BEE WATCHER WATCHERS and MORE BEE WATCHER MAKERS!
More of the same, weaker exports even with weaker dollar...and consumers consuming is BULK of our...GDP!
GDP came in WEAKER than expected at 3.1..inflation is HEATING UP
Duratek
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn inexports of goods, an acceleration in imports of goods, and a deceleration in PCE for durable goods thatwere partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.48 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in realGDP after contributing 0.18 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle outputcontributed 0.87 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after contributing 0.34percentage point to the third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,increased 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent inthe fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified.*
*ADD IN HEDONIC PRICING and other gov statistical BS manipulation seasonally adjusted shickanery.....THE US IS ONLY country using HEDONIC pricing....they MUST look better than rest of world to attract debt lovers.....so REAL WORLD US growth is anemic and is MOSTLY debt accelerated consumer consuming...we need LESS BEE WATCHER WATCHERS and MORE BEE WATCHER MAKERS!
More of the same, weaker exports even with weaker dollar...and consumers consuming is BULK of our...GDP!
GDP came in WEAKER than expected at 3.1..inflation is HEATING UP
Duratek
Thursday, January 27, 2005
Be Careful What You Wish For
REFLATION was what THEY were after, and they got it in spades...sort of.
Housing....up substantially.Energy.....from $20 to near $50 a barrel for oil...and natural gas...3 years ago I paid 88 cents per gallon....To FILL my tank it cost under $200! My last bill showed near $3 gas and my bill was over $800 !!! I KNOW I am not alone.Electric companies charging more to run heat pumps too I am sure.
Fueling our vehicles.Putting FOOD on the table.Insurance.Education.The COST of air is going up.....YET, wages are stagnant as consumer spending hardly takes a breather.
DEBT is at all time high along with defficits...yet int rate stay low.SOMETHING....is going to give....is going to blow!2+2 no longer equals 4
Housing....up substantially.Energy.....from $20 to near $50 a barrel for oil...and natural gas...3 years ago I paid 88 cents per gallon....To FILL my tank it cost under $200! My last bill showed near $3 gas and my bill was over $800 !!! I KNOW I am not alone.Electric companies charging more to run heat pumps too I am sure.
Fueling our vehicles.Putting FOOD on the table.Insurance.Education.The COST of air is going up.....YET, wages are stagnant as consumer spending hardly takes a breather.
DEBT is at all time high along with defficits...yet int rate stay low.SOMETHING....is going to give....is going to blow!2+2 no longer equals 4
LESSONS?
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=433
Market SHOULD have been able to build on last 2 days rally, but alas.
Increasing costs to manufacturers is hurting margins and is main cause of CAT weakness today and maybe a threat to earnings season.
D
Market SHOULD have been able to build on last 2 days rally, but alas.
Increasing costs to manufacturers is hurting margins and is main cause of CAT weakness today and maybe a threat to earnings season.
D
6 YEARS of GOING NoWHERE!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[w,a]wallyiay[pc20!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ua12,26,9!Ub14]&pref=G
I show you this 10 yr Dow chart to help put in perspective how "little" the last 3 years of Fed and Bush policies have effected the economy and markets.
Because you MUST understand the lengths and extremes both have gone to to preserve their places.
Never has so much done for so little. And this is thekind of action you expect in a Bear Market, yes friends, dispell any belief CNBC has ingrained on you that good times are about to roll, IMHO
Duratek
I show you this 10 yr Dow chart to help put in perspective how "little" the last 3 years of Fed and Bush policies have effected the economy and markets.
Because you MUST understand the lengths and extremes both have gone to to preserve their places.
Never has so much done for so little. And this is thekind of action you expect in a Bear Market, yes friends, dispell any belief CNBC has ingrained on you that good times are about to roll, IMHO
Duratek
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
SS in a FIX
SS in a FIX
Bush plan to privatize another good ole boy scheme.Cost of $2 trillion over 10 years of which will come out of thin air? NO, increased need to borrow SHOULD put UPWARD pressure on interest rates.AND private Gov papers leaked that they KNOW they will need to either RAISE taxes or CUT benefits because good old privatization doesn't do a do diddley for current morass and shortfalls.
2nd termer due for rough sledding. I know people STILL buying second home...here this from a financial planner I know...." we are buying a condo in Fla as INVESTMENT, all our other money is in stock market....."As property taxes skyrocket, and first time home buyers are priced out, not a healthy backdrop to economic expansion.
We SCREWED the pooch here, and have borrowed mightily from FUTURE demand, while KILLING our manufacturing, building CHina into world power, and bankrupting our country.
It's a plan.
Duratek
Bush plan to privatize another good ole boy scheme.Cost of $2 trillion over 10 years of which will come out of thin air? NO, increased need to borrow SHOULD put UPWARD pressure on interest rates.AND private Gov papers leaked that they KNOW they will need to either RAISE taxes or CUT benefits because good old privatization doesn't do a do diddley for current morass and shortfalls.
2nd termer due for rough sledding. I know people STILL buying second home...here this from a financial planner I know...." we are buying a condo in Fla as INVESTMENT, all our other money is in stock market....."As property taxes skyrocket, and first time home buyers are priced out, not a healthy backdrop to economic expansion.
We SCREWED the pooch here, and have borrowed mightily from FUTURE demand, while KILLING our manufacturing, building CHina into world power, and bankrupting our country.
It's a plan.
Duratek
Deficit War
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh69937_2005-01-24_19-50-30_wbt002341_newsml
STimulative landscape is changing, IMHO
D
STimulative landscape is changing, IMHO
D
Monday, January 24, 2005
FUNHOUSE
As almost EVERY advisor STAYED bullish (and maybe rightly so still) and 100% commited long to stocks coming into 2005, I ask myself what is it that I (some of we) SEE that they do not, or the other way around?I discussed that I was using the 20 EMA for my trend analysis, this almost forgottne simplistic approach keeps in touch with actual movement, not just my opinions...I have used 13 day and 13 week also...to each his own.I had discussed other items that alerted me, SPX/VIX ratio etc, though most disregarded the alert of a top or value of such a ratio....added to other things it need not stand on its own now.SO, though many guru's are VERY good, have gREAT feel....they miss things, they get too complacent....they are just GUESSING like everyone else, but reputation can go a long way...and NO ONE is right all the time.SOme give allocation models which prove over time to be fantastic way to invest.....but any 3 yr or so period could devestate those portfolio's.....one MUST take 10 yr at a time look at that style of investing.As it is, MOST cannot stomach or do the in and out method.....and larger errors can occur.As far as waiting for an undervalued market as a plan.....ONLY time will tell if CASH outperforms LTBH over the 2000 to whenever period....SO FAR any monies IN 2000 in most sectors would be wasted and if not, its their turn soon.Spinning wheels is not what most want to do......we will know substantial change has occured when most go from worrying about missing the next rise to worrying about losing what they've got!IMHO....we are VERY close to calling the re-emergence fo the bear market....and if that actually transpires during 2005-2006....you SHOULD know what that means.SO, do YOU get a crystal clear vision of tomorrow or today....or are you in the fun house?The DEALER is shuffling the cards.....the game has changed.
The "MIGHTY ARE FALLING"
http://www.forbes.com/technology/feeds/general/2005/01/24/generalcomtex_2005_01_24_md_0000-1721-.dstbusiness_05.html?partner=yahoo&referrer= Infineon weakness hurting tech this AM
TZOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tzoo TZOO sales force faces scrutiny....stock down $15 and 50% from highs.
TASR zapped....EBAY butchered....TZOO gnawed.....GOOG next? The shadowy speculative excesses getting wrung out....if appetitie for this declines so will broader market IMHO.
Banking sector weak, and the transports leading us down. 2005 getting off to VERY rocky start.
SO far just a correction, but that's how it can start out and then get out of hand. LOTS of complacency to feed off of.
D
TZOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tzoo TZOO sales force faces scrutiny....stock down $15 and 50% from highs.
TASR zapped....EBAY butchered....TZOO gnawed.....GOOG next? The shadowy speculative excesses getting wrung out....if appetitie for this declines so will broader market IMHO.
Banking sector weak, and the transports leading us down. 2005 getting off to VERY rocky start.
SO far just a correction, but that's how it can start out and then get out of hand. LOTS of complacency to feed off of.
D
Sunday, January 23, 2005
Is the Kontratief WInter Approaching in 2005?
http://howestreet.com/mainartcl.php?ArticleId=897&PHPSESSID=a38591c5a4b7c27a7edff3e47ee72f93
The market is due a bounce, it must begin so out of the box Monday or more downside is probable. Declining momo is still rather strong.
If any bounce comes it SHOULD be shallow and short, the decline should resume. ALL the money supposedly flowing into market every January and profit taking mostly over, the weakness in markets is even more ominous.
EVEN bellweather EBAY took a $19 shellacking. INTC couldn't rally the SHM ETF (semi holders) IBM "stellar" numbers didn't rally the market either.
We may have reached the ned of road for the cyclical bull, in coming weaks we will look for more signs. ALL major indexes have fallen below their respective Dec 2004 lows. This is NOT good.
Already ALL of 2004's gains have been wiped out in a mere 3 weeks of bear action.
I want to be a buyer of gold, but I am not sure if recent bounce in dollar is over just yet, there "COULD" be one more PLUNGE in gold prices to around $408 or so, there I would have to consider a better area to begin my accumulation. I will report here any action I may take and the technicals as I see them.
Cash is "Prince" as Pimco king touts, if not king 2nd best here is not so bad. Last hosuing report surprised me with its strength after 3 lackluster ones. STILL, key is long term rates and they STILL haven't shown their hand yet.
The key to markets could be held their as well, a substantial RISE in rates not a welcome sight. all IMHO
Duratek
The market is due a bounce, it must begin so out of the box Monday or more downside is probable. Declining momo is still rather strong.
If any bounce comes it SHOULD be shallow and short, the decline should resume. ALL the money supposedly flowing into market every January and profit taking mostly over, the weakness in markets is even more ominous.
EVEN bellweather EBAY took a $19 shellacking. INTC couldn't rally the SHM ETF (semi holders) IBM "stellar" numbers didn't rally the market either.
We may have reached the ned of road for the cyclical bull, in coming weaks we will look for more signs. ALL major indexes have fallen below their respective Dec 2004 lows. This is NOT good.
Already ALL of 2004's gains have been wiped out in a mere 3 weeks of bear action.
I want to be a buyer of gold, but I am not sure if recent bounce in dollar is over just yet, there "COULD" be one more PLUNGE in gold prices to around $408 or so, there I would have to consider a better area to begin my accumulation. I will report here any action I may take and the technicals as I see them.
Cash is "Prince" as Pimco king touts, if not king 2nd best here is not so bad. Last hosuing report surprised me with its strength after 3 lackluster ones. STILL, key is long term rates and they STILL haven't shown their hand yet.
The key to markets could be held their as well, a substantial RISE in rates not a welcome sight. all IMHO
Duratek
Friday, January 21, 2005
Market ALERT UPDATE!!
The Dow declined below its December low of 10,440.58 this afternoon 2 hours before the close. Under Dow Theory this CONFIRMS the weakness of the Transport index which had already done so.....may I add the Dow needs to CLOSE below that number to confirm.
ALL major indexes have fallen BELOW thier December lows, IMHO no matter what transpires here, that is a cry for help. It is telling us SOMETHING IS WRONG.
What is wrong? It might be unknowable at this time. COuld be unfunded liabilities like SS or MEdicare. COuld be IRAQ and the deficits. Could be 5 straight months of declining LEI's last year were telling us economy was slowing.
Could be telling us any number of things, and it is telling us BEFORE it is known. So you can choose to heed the warning, or do nothing.
I also use this site as a record of my comments and any call I might make, to keep record of how accurate or not my comments tend to be.
I think without continued stimulus, our economy cannot stand on its own 2 feet.
SO let's watch the close and see what happens. 10,440.58
Duratek
ALL major indexes have fallen BELOW thier December lows, IMHO no matter what transpires here, that is a cry for help. It is telling us SOMETHING IS WRONG.
What is wrong? It might be unknowable at this time. COuld be unfunded liabilities like SS or MEdicare. COuld be IRAQ and the deficits. Could be 5 straight months of declining LEI's last year were telling us economy was slowing.
Could be telling us any number of things, and it is telling us BEFORE it is known. So you can choose to heed the warning, or do nothing.
I also use this site as a record of my comments and any call I might make, to keep record of how accurate or not my comments tend to be.
I think without continued stimulus, our economy cannot stand on its own 2 feet.
SO let's watch the close and see what happens. 10,440.58
Duratek
Thursday, January 20, 2005
The TREND is WHO'S Friend?
If a trend is "allowed" to take hold just long enough....it becomes the trend. And any rally is seen as chance to dump at higher price....and for prior trend to restablish...the longer the opposing will lives on the harder it becomes to undo.
With hedgie goofballs loaded with SPX calls.....this trend is not thier friend.I had posted the 20 EMA which was declining should act as resistance, and following that EMA if that holds a fair bet.
For once I chose to simplify things but from my personal observations, and the 20 EMA supporting entire rise from OCT lows, seemed a reasonable assumption.....when it began to decline I respected that.
IMHO, this market is in deep deep trouble ($19 drop in ONE day for EBAY a darling...another LOUD warning...most will IGNORE)IIAA plurality of bulls record continues unhindered.
Duratek
With hedgie goofballs loaded with SPX calls.....this trend is not thier friend.I had posted the 20 EMA which was declining should act as resistance, and following that EMA if that holds a fair bet.
For once I chose to simplify things but from my personal observations, and the 20 EMA supporting entire rise from OCT lows, seemed a reasonable assumption.....when it began to decline I respected that.
IMHO, this market is in deep deep trouble ($19 drop in ONE day for EBAY a darling...another LOUD warning...most will IGNORE)IIAA plurality of bulls record continues unhindered.
Duratek
Thursday 20th Market Wrap
I am going to keep this brief, I will more indepth to say this weekend.
Todays action brought the Dow very close to breaking its Dec 2004 lows, near 10,440. Should that happen, it would be bearish and also confirm the weakness seen in the Transports (already below their Dec lows).
What does the Dow see that we cannot?
This has been the weakest markets during a recovery in history, considering this weak action has come in the face of the largest stimulus and tax cut plan in history, Fed lowering rates to 45 year lows, this SHOULD be a cause of concern.
EVERY LAST BEAR MARKET has returned the markets to below known values, meaning near single digit PE ratio's and a dividend yield near 6%.
Do the math, a 50% hair cut from current levels would not be out of the question.
Tomorrow is options expiration Friday and it could get wild, with swings in price. Regardless, it certainly seems like the trend has reversed and the decline which began in JAn has farther to go.
Duratek
Todays action brought the Dow very close to breaking its Dec 2004 lows, near 10,440. Should that happen, it would be bearish and also confirm the weakness seen in the Transports (already below their Dec lows).
What does the Dow see that we cannot?
This has been the weakest markets during a recovery in history, considering this weak action has come in the face of the largest stimulus and tax cut plan in history, Fed lowering rates to 45 year lows, this SHOULD be a cause of concern.
EVERY LAST BEAR MARKET has returned the markets to below known values, meaning near single digit PE ratio's and a dividend yield near 6%.
Do the math, a 50% hair cut from current levels would not be out of the question.
Tomorrow is options expiration Friday and it could get wild, with swings in price. Regardless, it certainly seems like the trend has reversed and the decline which began in JAn has farther to go.
Duratek
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
WHat is the market telling us?
http://tinyurl.com/yvrls
I have posted this before, recently I had mentioned it looked like a H and S was forming from NOV/DEC top...if it broke 1.30...and it has and it tested 1.30 and it is now resistance, IMHO....with also declining 20 EMA.
Now we don't want to hang our mojo on one thang.....but I feel this is somehow important.
D (you can email me Duratek@Yahoo.com)
I have posted this before, recently I had mentioned it looked like a H and S was forming from NOV/DEC top...if it broke 1.30...and it has and it tested 1.30 and it is now resistance, IMHO....with also declining 20 EMA.
Now we don't want to hang our mojo on one thang.....but I feel this is somehow important.
D (you can email me Duratek@Yahoo.com)
IBM Results a pleasant Surprise?
IBM results a pleasant surprise , 01.19.05, 12:03 PM ET The News and Observer NEW YORK -- IBM topped fourth-quarter expectations by a healthy margin, with strong overseas sales and a weak dollar helping to generate a profit of $3.04 billion. The profit, which amounted to $1.80 per share, was up sharply from a year ago, when IBM posted a net income of $2.71 billion or $1.55 a share for the final three months of 2003. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 7 percent to $27.67 billion compared with the year-ago tally of $25.91 billion. About 4 percentage points of the gain was driven by the rising value of the euro and other currencies against the dollar -- which makes U.S. products less expensive overseas and foreign sales more valuable when converted back to dollars.
**Most of their gain was from currency trade? I read "IBM will SPARK the markets"
IBM down over $1 today. "Good" data today has not....so far.
As I have discussed here, watch the 20 EMA's....I think they will hold the rally...and they are declining.
D
**Most of their gain was from currency trade? I read "IBM will SPARK the markets"
IBM down over $1 today. "Good" data today has not....so far.
As I have discussed here, watch the 20 EMA's....I think they will hold the rally...and they are declining.
D
Foreign Investment in US assets increases
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aQ5B1EEpk450&refer=us
Of growth HERE is higher, because of gov data manipulations incl Hedonic pricing. And in other countries where net investment and savings bring in good cheer, HERE it is mostly JUST CONSUMPTION!!!
The next THING to get CONSUMED will be those heavy in DEBT!
D
Of growth HERE is higher, because of gov data manipulations incl Hedonic pricing. And in other countries where net investment and savings bring in good cheer, HERE it is mostly JUST CONSUMPTION!!!
The next THING to get CONSUMED will be those heavy in DEBT!
D
Tuesday, January 18, 2005
SMH Semi Holders Woes
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=smh,uu[w,a]wallyiay[pc20!c5][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lh14,3]&pref=G 10 yr chart WHAT recovery?
When you factor in that the index is lower even after INTC declared they would raise their capex spending by about $1 Billion, this sector is even more telling. And I think most of tech suffers from overcapacity issues. You can add China as aprime reason with their emergence as a world competitior.
Only a few tech companies make any money. The generals INTC and MSFT look sick and sell at 5 yr lows. They are NO longer a growth story. The SEMI engine is hurling a fur ball.
INTC still trying to destroy AMD by lowering flash memory prices, INTC can outlast any competitor, this was a nice business for AMD. INTC profit margins have also suffered.....and so has its price. INTC hypsters touted their numbers last week, but INTC stock is now lower than after the earnings call, while other cheapie tech's move on.
We have the END to BUSH tax incentives for investment, which ended in 2004, I think has influenced results this QTR (which is always looking back 3 months).
Sooner or later the stock market is going to SNIFF a slowdown in the economy, and it won;t matter what the FED does, what manipulation occurs, this rally is going to get retraced. But the market isn't screaming a warning anyone is heeding, or acknowledging.
I am still watching to see if the indexes break thru the 20 EMA, it is now declining and I think it might repel this rally.
I can't nor can anyone pinpoint exact timing for the return of the Secular Bear Market, but I can assure you it is not over. That being said, I personally choose to sit out this market. And I won't be a buyer until better values show up.
And I am not alone in thinking 2005 can be a challenging year, but you wouldn't know it from the Wall Street chatter.
I will continue to tell it like it is.
Duratek
When you factor in that the index is lower even after INTC declared they would raise their capex spending by about $1 Billion, this sector is even more telling. And I think most of tech suffers from overcapacity issues. You can add China as aprime reason with their emergence as a world competitior.
Only a few tech companies make any money. The generals INTC and MSFT look sick and sell at 5 yr lows. They are NO longer a growth story. The SEMI engine is hurling a fur ball.
INTC still trying to destroy AMD by lowering flash memory prices, INTC can outlast any competitor, this was a nice business for AMD. INTC profit margins have also suffered.....and so has its price. INTC hypsters touted their numbers last week, but INTC stock is now lower than after the earnings call, while other cheapie tech's move on.
We have the END to BUSH tax incentives for investment, which ended in 2004, I think has influenced results this QTR (which is always looking back 3 months).
Sooner or later the stock market is going to SNIFF a slowdown in the economy, and it won;t matter what the FED does, what manipulation occurs, this rally is going to get retraced. But the market isn't screaming a warning anyone is heeding, or acknowledging.
I am still watching to see if the indexes break thru the 20 EMA, it is now declining and I think it might repel this rally.
I can't nor can anyone pinpoint exact timing for the return of the Secular Bear Market, but I can assure you it is not over. That being said, I personally choose to sit out this market. And I won't be a buyer until better values show up.
And I am not alone in thinking 2005 can be a challenging year, but you wouldn't know it from the Wall Street chatter.
I will continue to tell it like it is.
Duratek
Hans Sennholz
January 18, 2005
A New Economic Eliteby Hans F. Sennholz
Washington think tank informs us that the average annual compensation of the top 100 chief executives amounts to an astonishing $37.5 million, which is 1000 times the pay of an average worker. The top one percent of households reportedly earns 20 percent of all incomes and owns 33.4 percent of all net worth. The most astonishing feature of such concentration of wealth in the hands of a tiny elite is the utter lack of concern and comment by the American media. They apparently find nothing wrong with such glaring inequality.
We may readily agree with the media as long as the great chasm of income and wealth stems from great differences in economic productivity. Surely, we cannot fault the great American entrepreneurs who in ages past built famous enterprises employing thousands of workers and serving millions of consumers. They discovered new methods of production, opened new markets, and developed new sources of raw materials throughout the world. They succeeded by serving and pleasing consumers. Their talents of enterprise actually raised American standards of living to one of the highest in the world. And their labors bridged the wide legal, social, and economic gulf that separated the social classes throughout the ages.
The economic order that developed gradually during the 20th century gave life to yet another economic and social elite which does not seek new methods of production and does not give employment to thousands of workers; it shrewdly speculates on the effects of various government policies, such as inflation, credit expansion, and new regulations and controls. An economist who visits the new elite may actually discern three distinct branches that cooperate as readily as they feud with each other.
A large branch does not create new enterprises nor give employment to a single worker. It opens no markets nor develops new products. Its members thrive on boom-and-bust cycles which afford great opportunities to traders who observe and understand the portentous policies of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. They may manage investment trusts holding corporate stock worth billions of dollars or merely look after their own accounts. They weigh and appraise political intention and government intervention, always gauging the consequences, acting in anticipation, and profiting immensely from political moves. While many businessmen suffer painful losses during a business cycle, they succeed in increasing their funds throughout it all.
These speculators actually render an important service. The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury frequently intrude on and disrupt the smooth performance of markets, which then must readjust; they actually facilitate the adjustment. They anticipate future price movements, assume market price rick, and add liquidity and capital to the markets. Theirs is a necessary and productive activity.
A remarkable feature of this new elite is its frequent disagreements and altercations with the other branches of the business elite. Its members may find frequent fault with and cast aspersions on the elite that actually manages the production. They prefer to support and consort with the political powers that shape the economic policies, seeking the company of well-known politicians who in turn feel at ease with generous nouveaux riches.
Another branch of the new elite consists of chief executives whose compensation usually comprises a base salary and incentive options. They earn million-dollar lucre whenever the Federal Reserve blows stock market bubbles and corporate share prices soar to lofty price-earnings ratios. During the 1990s-bubble they pocketed hundred-million-dollar profits without any particular efforts of their own. They created no new industries and opened no new markets. The corporations they managed did not grow and corporate profits stagnated or even declined. But stock prices soared and CEOs reaped much lucre at the expense of their own stock holders. For every bubble profit taken is total worth consumed. It waters the stock and diminishes the property of all other stockholders. To remedy the situation, the corporation must henceforth increase its assets without increasing its outstanding shares or reduce outstanding shares without reducing assets. CEOs probably are aware of these implications, but few, if any, have ever returned their bubble lucre to losing stockholders.
The most powerful elite is yet another; it springs from political power that holds authority over the body politic. It is the natural extension of the new economic order known by various labels such as the New Deal, the Great Society, and other Democratic and Republican Deals. They made politics an important vocation and elevated politicians to positions of importance and eminence. Surely, politicians have to be ever mindful of public opinion which is shaped by the elite of education and communication. Many master the art of political communication and thus manage to perpetuate themselves in office. In their footsteps their children are laboring to forge a self-perpetuating political elite.
This country is not about to degenerate into a class-based society led by a ruling elite. Competition is a time-honored practice, a cultural custom followed from generation to generation. But, under the influence of collectivist ideologies, many politicians and journalists are ever eager to strike at successful entrepreneurs who earn much more than they do. It is difficult to ascertain their motives; it can be simple envy which consumes many men, or it can be economic ignorance. After all, market economics is barred from most universities and is unknown to leading politicians and journalists. It may explain why most politicians are ever eager to regulate industrial and commercial activity and strike at the economic elite with confiscatory taxation. Unfortunately, regulation and taxation tend to hamper economic activity, inhibit productivity, and depress levels of living. But they create ever new profit opportunities for the new economic elite.
Hans F. Sennholzwww.sennholz.com
A New Economic Eliteby Hans F. Sennholz
Washington think tank informs us that the average annual compensation of the top 100 chief executives amounts to an astonishing $37.5 million, which is 1000 times the pay of an average worker. The top one percent of households reportedly earns 20 percent of all incomes and owns 33.4 percent of all net worth. The most astonishing feature of such concentration of wealth in the hands of a tiny elite is the utter lack of concern and comment by the American media. They apparently find nothing wrong with such glaring inequality.
We may readily agree with the media as long as the great chasm of income and wealth stems from great differences in economic productivity. Surely, we cannot fault the great American entrepreneurs who in ages past built famous enterprises employing thousands of workers and serving millions of consumers. They discovered new methods of production, opened new markets, and developed new sources of raw materials throughout the world. They succeeded by serving and pleasing consumers. Their talents of enterprise actually raised American standards of living to one of the highest in the world. And their labors bridged the wide legal, social, and economic gulf that separated the social classes throughout the ages.
The economic order that developed gradually during the 20th century gave life to yet another economic and social elite which does not seek new methods of production and does not give employment to thousands of workers; it shrewdly speculates on the effects of various government policies, such as inflation, credit expansion, and new regulations and controls. An economist who visits the new elite may actually discern three distinct branches that cooperate as readily as they feud with each other.
A large branch does not create new enterprises nor give employment to a single worker. It opens no markets nor develops new products. Its members thrive on boom-and-bust cycles which afford great opportunities to traders who observe and understand the portentous policies of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. They may manage investment trusts holding corporate stock worth billions of dollars or merely look after their own accounts. They weigh and appraise political intention and government intervention, always gauging the consequences, acting in anticipation, and profiting immensely from political moves. While many businessmen suffer painful losses during a business cycle, they succeed in increasing their funds throughout it all.
These speculators actually render an important service. The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury frequently intrude on and disrupt the smooth performance of markets, which then must readjust; they actually facilitate the adjustment. They anticipate future price movements, assume market price rick, and add liquidity and capital to the markets. Theirs is a necessary and productive activity.
A remarkable feature of this new elite is its frequent disagreements and altercations with the other branches of the business elite. Its members may find frequent fault with and cast aspersions on the elite that actually manages the production. They prefer to support and consort with the political powers that shape the economic policies, seeking the company of well-known politicians who in turn feel at ease with generous nouveaux riches.
Another branch of the new elite consists of chief executives whose compensation usually comprises a base salary and incentive options. They earn million-dollar lucre whenever the Federal Reserve blows stock market bubbles and corporate share prices soar to lofty price-earnings ratios. During the 1990s-bubble they pocketed hundred-million-dollar profits without any particular efforts of their own. They created no new industries and opened no new markets. The corporations they managed did not grow and corporate profits stagnated or even declined. But stock prices soared and CEOs reaped much lucre at the expense of their own stock holders. For every bubble profit taken is total worth consumed. It waters the stock and diminishes the property of all other stockholders. To remedy the situation, the corporation must henceforth increase its assets without increasing its outstanding shares or reduce outstanding shares without reducing assets. CEOs probably are aware of these implications, but few, if any, have ever returned their bubble lucre to losing stockholders.
The most powerful elite is yet another; it springs from political power that holds authority over the body politic. It is the natural extension of the new economic order known by various labels such as the New Deal, the Great Society, and other Democratic and Republican Deals. They made politics an important vocation and elevated politicians to positions of importance and eminence. Surely, politicians have to be ever mindful of public opinion which is shaped by the elite of education and communication. Many master the art of political communication and thus manage to perpetuate themselves in office. In their footsteps their children are laboring to forge a self-perpetuating political elite.
This country is not about to degenerate into a class-based society led by a ruling elite. Competition is a time-honored practice, a cultural custom followed from generation to generation. But, under the influence of collectivist ideologies, many politicians and journalists are ever eager to strike at successful entrepreneurs who earn much more than they do. It is difficult to ascertain their motives; it can be simple envy which consumes many men, or it can be economic ignorance. After all, market economics is barred from most universities and is unknown to leading politicians and journalists. It may explain why most politicians are ever eager to regulate industrial and commercial activity and strike at the economic elite with confiscatory taxation. Unfortunately, regulation and taxation tend to hamper economic activity, inhibit productivity, and depress levels of living. But they create ever new profit opportunities for the new economic elite.
Hans F. Sennholzwww.sennholz.com
MARKET ACTION
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$CYC:$CMR,uu[w,a]daclyiay[pc20!c5!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G Weakness here belies market action. Rally should send soon, IMHO
I will be watching the 20 EMA of the indexes to see if it repells, so far ONLY SPX has gotten above, see where it closes, NDX, INDU, and TRANNIES all below 20 EMA which has supported rally from OCT.
Underlying weakness of fundamentals and other factors do not mean instant markt collapse, but it does mean you cannot fall asleep with your longs if you have any, IMHO
Duratek
I will be watching the 20 EMA of the indexes to see if it repells, so far ONLY SPX has gotten above, see where it closes, NDX, INDU, and TRANNIES all below 20 EMA which has supported rally from OCT.
Underlying weakness of fundamentals and other factors do not mean instant markt collapse, but it does mean you cannot fall asleep with your longs if you have any, IMHO
Duratek
Total Credit MArket Debt ETC!
Has now reached near 330% as a % of GDP !!!
I am EXTREMELY alarmed at this recent figure (and of course doesn't incl latest qtr) as it is now near 30% HIGHER than previous 1929-1930's extreme!!
And seeing personal savings rate at ZERO, and wages gains infintesimal.....the NOV $8 Billion decline in Consumer Spending if trend continues will also spell trouble for economy.
Taxes, food...almost everything increasing in cost....OIL now back near $50.....a STICKY WHICKET is what we got.
Some car manufacturers now stooping to desperate measures to sell auto's are giving ONE YEAR INSURANCE for FREE?
Some hybrid's.....but most of DETROIT is expanding HORSE POWER and SIZE of vehicles, with NO mileage mandate from Bush ADM..conserving...considering high gas costs is NOT a priority.....as the USELESSS HUMMER's sell like hotcakes.
WILL housing data fall flat this AM? I suspect it might, the selling of the market has only begun.....and few are prepared for a less than perky 2005.
I am EXTREMELY alarmed at this recent figure (and of course doesn't incl latest qtr) as it is now near 30% HIGHER than previous 1929-1930's extreme!!
And seeing personal savings rate at ZERO, and wages gains infintesimal.....the NOV $8 Billion decline in Consumer Spending if trend continues will also spell trouble for economy.
Taxes, food...almost everything increasing in cost....OIL now back near $50.....a STICKY WHICKET is what we got.
Some car manufacturers now stooping to desperate measures to sell auto's are giving ONE YEAR INSURANCE for FREE?
Some hybrid's.....but most of DETROIT is expanding HORSE POWER and SIZE of vehicles, with NO mileage mandate from Bush ADM..conserving...considering high gas costs is NOT a priority.....as the USELESSS HUMMER's sell like hotcakes.
WILL housing data fall flat this AM? I suspect it might, the selling of the market has only begun.....and few are prepared for a less than perky 2005.
Duratek
Monday, January 17, 2005
Jan 17th Dr Richebacher
BEST OF KURT RICHEBACHER
January 17, 2005
APOCALYPSE LATER
Despite all the worried talk about the sliding dollar, both the financial markets and economic forecasters are taking it in stride. Conspicuously, nobody speaks of a dollar crisis at present or in the future. High-riding expectations of a strong year-end rally in the stock markets have been somewhat disappointed. Yet there have been two pleasant major surprises. One is the sharp fall of oil prices, and the other is the resilience of the U.S. bond market, defying not only the dollar’s weakness, but also the four rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
It appears to be a common view that economic growth in the eurozone and Japan is badly faltering again, with both countries flirting with new recessions. In contrast, the forecasts for the U.S. economy remain rather upbeat, hailing the plunges in oil prices and the dollar.
We stick to our diametrically opposite view that the U.S. economy is prone to sharply slower growth. It is the profligate consumer who has kept the economy afloat since 2000. What kept the consumer afloat is also no secret. It was mainly two events: first, inordinate tax cuts; and second, exploding ultra-cheap borrowing facilities, made available through the Fed’s creative bubble strategy and implemented by ultra-low short-term interest rates.
Together, the two have unquestionably contained the fallout from the bursting stock market bubble. They also had respectable effects in terms of U.S. real GDP growth during the second half of 2003 and the first half of 2004. Yet the most important aim of all the monetary and fiscal stimulus — to set in motion a self-sustaining economic recovery — has been flatly missed.
A "self-sustaining" U.S. economic recovery urgently needs accelerating employment and income growth. Just the opposite is happening. During the six months up to last November, real disposable personal income grew just 1%, or 2% annualized. This is down from 3% in the first half of 2004 and 4.8% in the second half of 2003. Taxes and higher inflation rates are taking their toll. Debt-financed spending went to new records. During the third quarter, private households increased their spending by $139.4 billion, while their earnings increased only $81.6 billion.
Employment and income growth are the key fundamentals of household finance. According to the reports of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), they have significantly improved in 2004. But no less than two-thirds of these gains owe their creation to the ominous "net birth/death" computer model of the BLS, designed to estimate employment
growth by new business formations.
All that is needed to activate this job creation is a unilateral decision by the BLS that the U.S. economy is in a recovery. Implicitly, the Bureau of Economic Analysis translates these computer-generated additions to employment into corresponding additions to wages and salaries. Considering the persistent, unusual weakness in employment, as documented by the actual surveys, it requires a lot of heroism to assume an employment boom from new business formations.
For November, the BLS reported 112,000 new jobs, as against an expected 200,000. As bad as the report appeared, the reality was even worse. No less than 54,000 of the new jobs had come from the net birth/death computer model, compared to 30,000 jobs in November last year.
In the third quarter of 2004, consumer spending accounted for 89.2% of real GDP. It is the familiar ruinous growth pattern. A viable economic recovery would require a strong contribution through sharply higher business investment and hiring. Both remain missing, although the recovery is entering its fourth year.
For Subscription Information Contact:
THE RICHEBACHER LETTER
808 St. Paul Street
Baltimore, MD 21202
http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/RCH/broke918
Rate: $497
January 17, 2005
APOCALYPSE LATER
Despite all the worried talk about the sliding dollar, both the financial markets and economic forecasters are taking it in stride. Conspicuously, nobody speaks of a dollar crisis at present or in the future. High-riding expectations of a strong year-end rally in the stock markets have been somewhat disappointed. Yet there have been two pleasant major surprises. One is the sharp fall of oil prices, and the other is the resilience of the U.S. bond market, defying not only the dollar’s weakness, but also the four rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
It appears to be a common view that economic growth in the eurozone and Japan is badly faltering again, with both countries flirting with new recessions. In contrast, the forecasts for the U.S. economy remain rather upbeat, hailing the plunges in oil prices and the dollar.
We stick to our diametrically opposite view that the U.S. economy is prone to sharply slower growth. It is the profligate consumer who has kept the economy afloat since 2000. What kept the consumer afloat is also no secret. It was mainly two events: first, inordinate tax cuts; and second, exploding ultra-cheap borrowing facilities, made available through the Fed’s creative bubble strategy and implemented by ultra-low short-term interest rates.
Together, the two have unquestionably contained the fallout from the bursting stock market bubble. They also had respectable effects in terms of U.S. real GDP growth during the second half of 2003 and the first half of 2004. Yet the most important aim of all the monetary and fiscal stimulus — to set in motion a self-sustaining economic recovery — has been flatly missed.
A "self-sustaining" U.S. economic recovery urgently needs accelerating employment and income growth. Just the opposite is happening. During the six months up to last November, real disposable personal income grew just 1%, or 2% annualized. This is down from 3% in the first half of 2004 and 4.8% in the second half of 2003. Taxes and higher inflation rates are taking their toll. Debt-financed spending went to new records. During the third quarter, private households increased their spending by $139.4 billion, while their earnings increased only $81.6 billion.
Employment and income growth are the key fundamentals of household finance. According to the reports of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), they have significantly improved in 2004. But no less than two-thirds of these gains owe their creation to the ominous "net birth/death" computer model of the BLS, designed to estimate employment
growth by new business formations.
All that is needed to activate this job creation is a unilateral decision by the BLS that the U.S. economy is in a recovery. Implicitly, the Bureau of Economic Analysis translates these computer-generated additions to employment into corresponding additions to wages and salaries. Considering the persistent, unusual weakness in employment, as documented by the actual surveys, it requires a lot of heroism to assume an employment boom from new business formations.
For November, the BLS reported 112,000 new jobs, as against an expected 200,000. As bad as the report appeared, the reality was even worse. No less than 54,000 of the new jobs had come from the net birth/death computer model, compared to 30,000 jobs in November last year.
In the third quarter of 2004, consumer spending accounted for 89.2% of real GDP. It is the familiar ruinous growth pattern. A viable economic recovery would require a strong contribution through sharply higher business investment and hiring. Both remain missing, although the recovery is entering its fourth year.
For Subscription Information Contact:
THE RICHEBACHER LETTER
808 St. Paul Street
Baltimore, MD 21202
http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/RCH/broke918
Rate: $497
Sunday, January 16, 2005
Momentum Monkeys
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050115/wall_main_3.html
You only have to look at what stocks are yielding now as compared to other times in history to understand "investor" (I hate using that term) psychology. Stocks now yield about 2.2% on the Dow and less than 1.8% on the SPX. Market TOPS are born of 3% yields!
This market is being sold hook line and sinker as the "beginning" of something. "Stocks are selling at great values" the hucksters scream. And it is apparent the call is being heard.
I noticed this week the money supply didn't budge, the previous week it was up near $57 Billion. The FEd still thinks it is the puppeteer.
You only have to look at what stocks are yielding now as compared to other times in history to understand "investor" (I hate using that term) psychology. Stocks now yield about 2.2% on the Dow and less than 1.8% on the SPX. Market TOPS are born of 3% yields!
This market is being sold hook line and sinker as the "beginning" of something. "Stocks are selling at great values" the hucksters scream. And it is apparent the call is being heard.
I noticed this week the money supply didn't budge, the previous week it was up near $57 Billion. The FEd still thinks it is the puppeteer.
Many have signalled alarm at China's holding so much of our debt, but it is Japan that holds the most almost 7 X what China has bought. WHO is going to bhite the hand that feeds?
WHAT would China have to gain by floating their currency? Exactly, they won't do it no matter what. And all Japan needs to is run their printing presses to buy our worthless paper? How long can this charade continue?
I get the feeling that consumers are falling DEEPER and DEEPER into credit card debt, and the ATM which is their house has topped in value. Expenses for everything are going up and there is no slack, room for error....no wiggle room for a financial mistep.
Job growth will NOT materialize here in this country and so FAR into so-called recovery it hasn't, why now or later? The job growth occurred overseas for $3 a day workers.
My own customers when I ask and even explain some of the "fears" of buying Chinese Imports, it doesn't faze them one iota. There is NO outcry to "BUY AMERICAN".
National PRIDE has been replaced by Fed induced CONSUMERISM, and we are all the poorer (well not the privledged and insiders) for it.
Perhaps a consumer version of TASR gun will be sold and we can zap each other senseless or just for fun, it will be the next "new thing" and maybe it's made in America, but I kind of doubt it.
Car sales and housing has slowed, the engine of recovery, and THAT TRUMP CARD has been PLAYED, leaving us with little to attack NEXT Recession. And when it comes it will come with 68% home ownership, and a good bit of those sitting with overpriced overleveredged homes......with large property tax bills due to soaring values of last 3 years, most bills rocketing some 30% or more.....the tax man cometh.
Most bubbles are followed by echo bubbles, and this time as in other echo's the bullishness has exceeded in some ways the previous. Just look at a $200 Google.
Is any of the markets New Year tentativeness due to upcoming Iraqi elections? fear of terrorist attack on BUsh inaugeration? Profit taking from 2 years of gains? Nobody knows.
According to Dow Theory, you buy when stocks are at great values and sell when they reach over valuation....and there is a cycle here and we go back and forth between under and over valuation.
The other cycle that interests me is CREDIT EXPANSION, and we every day it grows make a new record for total credit market debt, FAR surpassing the % of GDP at 1929 top. From expansion when it tops we head for CREDIT CONTRACTION, as described in KOndartief WInter and its cycle.
It happened before, it will happen again. All we can do is stick to the basics, keep debt minimal, and hope that history doesn't have to repeat.
Keep an eye for Next weeks housing data, I will be sure to post when it comes.
Duratek
Saturday, January 15, 2005
The POT and the KETTLE
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20050115/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_social_security
What happens when the workers who are supposed to help pay for the latter stage baby boomers now in their 50's divert 2/3 of their SS payments into PRIVATE ACCOUNTS?
Given current budget deficits, adding $2 trillion if Bush has his way in passing this reform, will certainly help to push up interest rates and help push an already imbalanced budget to tilt.
Anyone is lying if they don't fess up that raising the age one can collect SS and or decreasing the payments is a given! Isn't the GOV already doing some of that when it reports the CPI is up a marginal amount?
WE ALL know the truth when it comes to increases in the cost of things. This is going to be one ugly second term for this President, where we will see loyal Republicans revolt against their own party.
Duratek
What happens when the workers who are supposed to help pay for the latter stage baby boomers now in their 50's divert 2/3 of their SS payments into PRIVATE ACCOUNTS?
Given current budget deficits, adding $2 trillion if Bush has his way in passing this reform, will certainly help to push up interest rates and help push an already imbalanced budget to tilt.
Anyone is lying if they don't fess up that raising the age one can collect SS and or decreasing the payments is a given! Isn't the GOV already doing some of that when it reports the CPI is up a marginal amount?
WE ALL know the truth when it comes to increases in the cost of things. This is going to be one ugly second term for this President, where we will see loyal Republicans revolt against their own party.
Duratek
Friday, January 14, 2005
CREE Punished, No Beheaded 24%
Cree falls on downgrade, Q2 shortfall Demand slows in key business; Q3 guidance disappoints
By Dan Gallagher, CBS MarketWatchLast Update: 10:23 AM ET Jan. 14, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Cree Inc. took a spill Friday morning after an analyst for Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the chipmaker, citing "soft" results for its second fiscal quarter and a disappointing outlook for the current period.
The Durham, N.C.-based company (CREE: news, chart, profile) saw its shares lose $8.15, or 23 percent, to trade at $26.90 in early Friday trading.
In a note, Wells analyst Chris Montaño said the company's results "may spark investor concerns" regarding near-term growth in the market for light-emitting diodes, or LEDs - the company's main business line.
"While we remain confident that the LED market's long-term prospects are very promising, given the downside surprise and guidance we think it is prudent to take a more cautious view regarding near-term LED growth," wrote Montaño, who now rates the stock "hold."
In a conference call Thursday afternoon, Cree executives said demand for LED products was slowing because of "a variety of factors," including seasonal slowdowns in production of mobile phones that use Cree's technology.
A more positive view came from CIBC analyst Matthew Smith, who predicted that while growth in the mobile phone market is slowing, the company has potential to win business in the growing space for LCD TVs.
"We believe that the first opportunity for Cree to achieve product design-in will occur within the next 6-8 months, most likely in high-end LCD TVs in 37" to 40" segments," Smith wrote. "This could set the stage for product roll-outs early as [the first half of 2006]."
Second-quarter results below expectations
For the quarter ended Dec. 26 the company reported revenue of $97.5 million compared to $72.7 million in the same quarter last year. Analysts were expecting revenue of $100.2 million, according to consensus estimates from Thomson First Call.
Net income for the quarter was $25 million, or 32 cents per share, compared to net income of $13 million, or 17 cents per share, for the same period last year.
The company said earnings for the period got a boost of 5 cents per share from "net non-operating and other tax adjustments." The EPS number was also negatively impacted by a penny because of an increase in the number of fully diluted shares outstanding.
Analysts were expecting earnings of 32 cents per share.
Gross margin for the quarter was 50.4 percent of revenue, compared to 46.6 percent in the same period last year but down from 56 percent in the previous period. The company blamed the sequential decline to increased LED costs associated with the three-inch wafer conversion, product ramp ups and lower-than-expected shipments and sales prices in December.
For the current period, Cree said it expects revenue in the range of $94 million to $98 million -- below analysts' expectations of $103.5 million in revenue. Earnings for the period are expected to come in between 24-27 cents per share compared to 32 cents per share expected by analysts.
By Dan Gallagher, CBS MarketWatchLast Update: 10:23 AM ET Jan. 14, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Cree Inc. took a spill Friday morning after an analyst for Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the chipmaker, citing "soft" results for its second fiscal quarter and a disappointing outlook for the current period.
The Durham, N.C.-based company (CREE: news, chart, profile) saw its shares lose $8.15, or 23 percent, to trade at $26.90 in early Friday trading.
In a note, Wells analyst Chris Montaño said the company's results "may spark investor concerns" regarding near-term growth in the market for light-emitting diodes, or LEDs - the company's main business line.
"While we remain confident that the LED market's long-term prospects are very promising, given the downside surprise and guidance we think it is prudent to take a more cautious view regarding near-term LED growth," wrote Montaño, who now rates the stock "hold."
In a conference call Thursday afternoon, Cree executives said demand for LED products was slowing because of "a variety of factors," including seasonal slowdowns in production of mobile phones that use Cree's technology.
A more positive view came from CIBC analyst Matthew Smith, who predicted that while growth in the mobile phone market is slowing, the company has potential to win business in the growing space for LCD TVs.
"We believe that the first opportunity for Cree to achieve product design-in will occur within the next 6-8 months, most likely in high-end LCD TVs in 37" to 40" segments," Smith wrote. "This could set the stage for product roll-outs early as [the first half of 2006]."
Second-quarter results below expectations
For the quarter ended Dec. 26 the company reported revenue of $97.5 million compared to $72.7 million in the same quarter last year. Analysts were expecting revenue of $100.2 million, according to consensus estimates from Thomson First Call.
Net income for the quarter was $25 million, or 32 cents per share, compared to net income of $13 million, or 17 cents per share, for the same period last year.
The company said earnings for the period got a boost of 5 cents per share from "net non-operating and other tax adjustments." The EPS number was also negatively impacted by a penny because of an increase in the number of fully diluted shares outstanding.
Analysts were expecting earnings of 32 cents per share.
Gross margin for the quarter was 50.4 percent of revenue, compared to 46.6 percent in the same period last year but down from 56 percent in the previous period. The company blamed the sequential decline to increased LED costs associated with the three-inch wafer conversion, product ramp ups and lower-than-expected shipments and sales prices in December.
For the current period, Cree said it expects revenue in the range of $94 million to $98 million -- below analysts' expectations of $103.5 million in revenue. Earnings for the period are expected to come in between 24-27 cents per share compared to 32 cents per share expected by analysts.
Briefing.Com Economic Data
http://briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm Any new readers not familiar with this website should save.
Click on indicator, Like PPI for additional data. PPI decline .7% ! More pressure on Gold perhaps.
Chinese are passing along price INCREASES as they pay more for raw materials.
D
Click on indicator, Like PPI for additional data. PPI decline .7% ! More pressure on Gold perhaps.
Chinese are passing along price INCREASES as they pay more for raw materials.
D
4th and GOAL
As we approach this Friday, and long 3 day weekend (markets closed Monday) I want to look at the backdrop of market action.
Behind yesterdays late 100 point droop, was the previous days last 15 minute reversal and 60 point jaunt! And you think you're confused? WHO didn't think a rally follow thru was do today? And especially after AAPL tore the cover off, behind the amazing Kreskan..I mean INTC....remember I noted that even a BBBAAABILION $$$ increase in INCT Capex spending mentioned did not revive this pivotal group and who is asking why?
Oil is above $48 again! Tanker group going to catch a bid?
Bond yields slid again near a new low for the move, 30 year near 4.7% !! the bonds have been compressing for months, the weight is for a huge move up in yields but not yesterday and maybe not tomorrow if the flight to safety is seen as bonds.......and isn't that trade getting crowded? isn't that trade and carry trade action compressing the yield curve?
McClellan Oscillator barely budged even with yesterdays large move down, but the move down came with new highs outpacing new lows. SMALL moves in OSCILLATOR are usually followed with large moves within a few days. Not sure which direction, but a negative day going into long weekend I would take as very bearish. WILL traders want to hold onto longs into weekend?
ALL kinds of excuses for selloff given, mostly "traders locking in gains from last year"
Let's let market tell us with action, today IMHO is rather pivotal.
D
Behind yesterdays late 100 point droop, was the previous days last 15 minute reversal and 60 point jaunt! And you think you're confused? WHO didn't think a rally follow thru was do today? And especially after AAPL tore the cover off, behind the amazing Kreskan..I mean INTC....remember I noted that even a BBBAAABILION $$$ increase in INCT Capex spending mentioned did not revive this pivotal group and who is asking why?
Oil is above $48 again! Tanker group going to catch a bid?
Bond yields slid again near a new low for the move, 30 year near 4.7% !! the bonds have been compressing for months, the weight is for a huge move up in yields but not yesterday and maybe not tomorrow if the flight to safety is seen as bonds.......and isn't that trade getting crowded? isn't that trade and carry trade action compressing the yield curve?
McClellan Oscillator barely budged even with yesterdays large move down, but the move down came with new highs outpacing new lows. SMALL moves in OSCILLATOR are usually followed with large moves within a few days. Not sure which direction, but a negative day going into long weekend I would take as very bearish. WILL traders want to hold onto longs into weekend?
ALL kinds of excuses for selloff given, mostly "traders locking in gains from last year"
Let's let market tell us with action, today IMHO is rather pivotal.
D
Thursday, January 13, 2005
A Picture is Worth "Failed Policies"
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/vel-gdp-per-m3 Velocity of money has FAILED to catch fire...or damn nor even a cold! WHAT Recovery?
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/CH_monsp.HTM Look at this pathetic chart,where IS the BEEF?!
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/CH_conco.HTM WHat's wrong with the consumer?
And finally, thanks to ST louis Fed ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
AGAIN, I ask what is wrong, why has stimulus policies failed?
Now because of China and commoditiies, itseems on one hand we have INFLATION, but the action of the monetary base and velocity lead me to believe that DEFLATION is what we should FEAR the most......it tells me this is liken to a BLACK HOLE.
I don't give warnings, advise caution, and for me remain on sidelines for no good reason.
Duratek
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/CH_monsp.HTM Look at this pathetic chart,where IS the BEEF?!
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/CH_conco.HTM WHat's wrong with the consumer?
And finally, thanks to ST louis Fed ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
AGAIN, I ask what is wrong, why has stimulus policies failed?
Now because of China and commoditiies, itseems on one hand we have INFLATION, but the action of the monetary base and velocity lead me to believe that DEFLATION is what we should FEAR the most......it tells me this is liken to a BLACK HOLE.
I don't give warnings, advise caution, and for me remain on sidelines for no good reason.
Duratek
Market in a RUT
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[w,a]daclyiay[de][pb10!b40!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lb14]&pref=G Small caps have broken down. Transports are below DEC LOWS. Dow has never confirmed move in Transports from 2004! The longest non confirm in Dow Theory history I believe.
Yesterdays orchestrated last 15 minute miracle is rumored to have come from "whispers" AAPL would have blow out numbers.....who whispered and what did they know.....more insider BS.....
D
Yesterdays orchestrated last 15 minute miracle is rumored to have come from "whispers" AAPL would have blow out numbers.....who whispered and what did they know.....more insider BS.....
D
Wednesday, January 12, 2005
A sign post?
http://www.elliottwave.com/ Credit given below to EWT. I LOVE the service, many pooh pooh its calls, like anything if you look there is value, and good calls have been made. Sentiment data offered is best around and I find it extremely helpful guaging market directon....expecially when it reaches extremes. Below is last paragrapg of NAZ section and summary.
"While the market is oversold near term, other pieces of the bearish puzzle continue to drop into place at larger degrees. The above two charts show the NASDAQ Composite plotted above the NASDAQ 10-day advance/decline volume (the concept comes from the venerable Ned Davis and his cohorts). Yesterday a bearish downside thrust “sell” signal was registered when the 10-day a/d volume fell below .65 (for the first time in 65 days). I’ve published two charts to show the bullish and bearish thrust signals since March 2001. These signals are not short term in nature. The NASDAQ typically will move for weeks or months in the direction of the thrust signal once it is recorded. What is interesting is that yesterday’s signal is similar to the one registered right after the January 2004 NASDAQ high. The appearance of these two signals suggests that the index has recorded a double top and the trend for the index has indeed turned down.[Bottom Line]: The market appears to have completed the initial leg down of a larger market selloff. A near term bounce should carry the indexes to our cited targets before leading to another leg down."
"While the market is oversold near term, other pieces of the bearish puzzle continue to drop into place at larger degrees. The above two charts show the NASDAQ Composite plotted above the NASDAQ 10-day advance/decline volume (the concept comes from the venerable Ned Davis and his cohorts). Yesterday a bearish downside thrust “sell” signal was registered when the 10-day a/d volume fell below .65 (for the first time in 65 days). I’ve published two charts to show the bullish and bearish thrust signals since March 2001. These signals are not short term in nature. The NASDAQ typically will move for weeks or months in the direction of the thrust signal once it is recorded. What is interesting is that yesterday’s signal is similar to the one registered right after the January 2004 NASDAQ high. The appearance of these two signals suggests that the index has recorded a double top and the trend for the index has indeed turned down.[Bottom Line]: The market appears to have completed the initial leg down of a larger market selloff. A near term bounce should carry the indexes to our cited targets before leading to another leg down."
*Did anyone see tonights LUDICROUS Q and A presentation by Leesman? the little bald guy and another goof on CNBC explaining whether "deficits" were "good or bad and why should we care"
I nearly vomited in laughter at the infantile fashion this subject was tackled. "Well....deficits are good right? because it shows how STRONG the US economy is"
I wish I could be making this up! With stage fright and crazy glued lips my 9 yr old son could do better! I would debate those clowns any day any time....me the bozo avg Joe on the street.
Where is it good that America doesn't make anything anymore? EVEN JAPAN is now outsourcing to China! Maybe China will outsource to Viet Nam?
SMH (semi holders ETF) hardly budged today....the day after INTC gave such "sterling" numbers and promised a $ billion increase in capex spending on equipment! It SHOULD have been a gapper higher, IMHO.
WHo didn't know the IPOD would bring killer numbers to AAPL? It's already IN stock, it ramped over $7 AH
Don't you love the TASR saga? Andhow little LENF BB stock has gone from pennies to over $12 then back to $8 and who knows? Story goes....woes at TASR should be good for other tasr wannabees? Something wierd going on here?...seems both LENF and another company bought rights to tasr-like patents? 2 companies.....same guy?.....ONE PINK SHEET went to $48!!! "stinger" and the other a Bulletin Board stock!
If the tech was SO good......would THIS be where you think it would surface?
If TASR tech is killing people...HOW FAST would police run to buy a similar device from a little BB or PINK SHEET company?
Go figure.
Duratek
Transports got slammed WED. UPS Woes?
UPS woes run deeper than weather
By Matt Andrejczak & Padraic CassidyLast Update: 4:48 PM ET Jan. 12, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - When UPS blamed winter storms and sluggish demand for a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter, the package carrier roused suspicions it faces troubles that run far deeper than the weather.
Investors responded to the news by sending UPS (UPS: news, chart, profile) shares tumbling Wednesday. The stock fell $6.18, or 7.4 percent, to $77.18, a move accompanied by two Wall Street downgrades.
Atlanta-based UPS is facing stiffer competition for ground deliveries, higher-than-expected costs to roll out new technology to sort packages and tighter margins as its business mix shifts to the consumer market, analysts suspect.
"There are many things not operating smoothly," Bear Stearns analyst Edward Wolfe said in a research note. He called the UPS earnings shortfall a "big miss."
UPS said it would miss Wall Street's consensus estimate by 12 percent. Excluding a better-than-expected tax rate, it expects a fourth-quarter profit of 75 cents to 76 cents a share, down from its prior expectation of 83 cents to 87 cents a share.
Investors found it hard to buy UPS' rationale for a lower profit. The company's main rival, FedEx (FDX: news, chart, profile), was quick to note it remains on track to meet its quarterly forecast.
Equities analysts at J.P. Morgan and Credit Suisse First Boston both cut UPS to "neutral" on Wednesday.
UPS is losing market share to FedEx and DHL for ground shipments, analysts assume. UPS said domestic package volume growth slowed to 1.6 percent for the quarter, well-below Wall Street's forecast of about 4 percent.
DHL is winning over parcel shippers with deep discounts, J.P. Morgan said. It noted that parcel shippers plan to boost spending with DHL to 18 percent in 2006, up from 13 percent.
"The company's results could be negatively affected by an industry price war, particularly over the long term if DHL looks to take market share," J.P. Morgan analyst Gregory Burns said.
Consumers have turned to UPS as a shipping option after the company acquired Mail Boxes Etc. Consumer package volume makes up 25 percent of UPS' shipments, up from 15 percent in 1999, according to Bear Stearns estimate.
But that has had its consequences on the bottom line: The consumer market is typically less profitable than the business market, Bear Stearns said.
Warning sends ripples
UPS' warning knocked other transportation and logistics stocks down Wednesday, part of a slate of mixed news for the sector, said analyst Jack Waldo of Stephens Inc.
Shipping stocks have come under pressure in the last few weeks over fears of rising inflation, rising oil costs - up since the end of the 2004 - and hints of rising capacity, said Waldo.
But overall, the sector is preparing for a positive fourth-quarter earnings period.
"Investors are waiting around for some good news from our truckload and our [less-than-truckload] carriers, and we're optimistic that that good news will come in the form of fourth-quarter earnings releases at the end of the month and comments on current business conditions, which we still think are pretty strong."
As examples, Waldo said, in the last two weeks, SCS Transport Inc. (SCST: news, chart, profile) said it would meet the midpoint or above their earnings projections, Yellow Roadway (YELL: news, chart, profile) affirmed its outlook and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL: news, chart, profile) announced an acquisition that would boost 2005 earnings.
"There are no company-specific comments within my industry, sans UPS, that would warrant this type of sell-off," he added.
Stocks falling included Overnite Corp. (OVNT: news, chart, profile), which fell 2.7 percent to $33.04; logistics firm Pacer International (PACR: news, chart, profile), which dropped 3.9 percent to $20.72; and C.H. Robinson (CHRW: news, chart, profile), which slumped 3.2 percent to $53.42.
Matt Andrejczak is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.Padraic Cassidy is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch in New York.
By Matt Andrejczak & Padraic CassidyLast Update: 4:48 PM ET Jan. 12, 2005
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - When UPS blamed winter storms and sluggish demand for a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter, the package carrier roused suspicions it faces troubles that run far deeper than the weather.
Investors responded to the news by sending UPS (UPS: news, chart, profile) shares tumbling Wednesday. The stock fell $6.18, or 7.4 percent, to $77.18, a move accompanied by two Wall Street downgrades.
Atlanta-based UPS is facing stiffer competition for ground deliveries, higher-than-expected costs to roll out new technology to sort packages and tighter margins as its business mix shifts to the consumer market, analysts suspect.
"There are many things not operating smoothly," Bear Stearns analyst Edward Wolfe said in a research note. He called the UPS earnings shortfall a "big miss."
UPS said it would miss Wall Street's consensus estimate by 12 percent. Excluding a better-than-expected tax rate, it expects a fourth-quarter profit of 75 cents to 76 cents a share, down from its prior expectation of 83 cents to 87 cents a share.
Investors found it hard to buy UPS' rationale for a lower profit. The company's main rival, FedEx (FDX: news, chart, profile), was quick to note it remains on track to meet its quarterly forecast.
Equities analysts at J.P. Morgan and Credit Suisse First Boston both cut UPS to "neutral" on Wednesday.
UPS is losing market share to FedEx and DHL for ground shipments, analysts assume. UPS said domestic package volume growth slowed to 1.6 percent for the quarter, well-below Wall Street's forecast of about 4 percent.
DHL is winning over parcel shippers with deep discounts, J.P. Morgan said. It noted that parcel shippers plan to boost spending with DHL to 18 percent in 2006, up from 13 percent.
"The company's results could be negatively affected by an industry price war, particularly over the long term if DHL looks to take market share," J.P. Morgan analyst Gregory Burns said.
Consumers have turned to UPS as a shipping option after the company acquired Mail Boxes Etc. Consumer package volume makes up 25 percent of UPS' shipments, up from 15 percent in 1999, according to Bear Stearns estimate.
But that has had its consequences on the bottom line: The consumer market is typically less profitable than the business market, Bear Stearns said.
Warning sends ripples
UPS' warning knocked other transportation and logistics stocks down Wednesday, part of a slate of mixed news for the sector, said analyst Jack Waldo of Stephens Inc.
Shipping stocks have come under pressure in the last few weeks over fears of rising inflation, rising oil costs - up since the end of the 2004 - and hints of rising capacity, said Waldo.
But overall, the sector is preparing for a positive fourth-quarter earnings period.
"Investors are waiting around for some good news from our truckload and our [less-than-truckload] carriers, and we're optimistic that that good news will come in the form of fourth-quarter earnings releases at the end of the month and comments on current business conditions, which we still think are pretty strong."
As examples, Waldo said, in the last two weeks, SCS Transport Inc. (SCST: news, chart, profile) said it would meet the midpoint or above their earnings projections, Yellow Roadway (YELL: news, chart, profile) affirmed its outlook and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL: news, chart, profile) announced an acquisition that would boost 2005 earnings.
"There are no company-specific comments within my industry, sans UPS, that would warrant this type of sell-off," he added.
Stocks falling included Overnite Corp. (OVNT: news, chart, profile), which fell 2.7 percent to $33.04; logistics firm Pacer International (PACR: news, chart, profile), which dropped 3.9 percent to $20.72; and C.H. Robinson (CHRW: news, chart, profile), which slumped 3.2 percent to $53.42.
Matt Andrejczak is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.Padraic Cassidy is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch in New York.
A Low in place?
I just have a minute, will try and give more detail later. Tonight's Elliott Wave shows NDX and SPX bouncing off lower trendlines in place from Aug lows. Most likely any near term bounce will be completely retraced.
That and the declining 20 EMA makes me believe any bounce is a relief of oversold condition which never got to extreme oversold.
I will try and post some paremeters tomorrow, a sort of guidpost, but you can use the 20 EMA of any index to see if it offers any resistance.
D
That and the declining 20 EMA makes me believe any bounce is a relief of oversold condition which never got to extreme oversold.
I will try and post some paremeters tomorrow, a sort of guidpost, but you can use the 20 EMA of any index to see if it offers any resistance.
D
"Game Over" Stephen Roach and my market wrap
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050107-fri.html#anchor0
Everyone's favorite pessimist. But should not be ignored.
I appreciate everyone's feedback, feel free to email me and I will do my best to respond promptly.
Last 15 minutes rise fron FLAT today seemed disingenuous, orchestrated. But with 20 EMA (exponential moving average) now falling for most if not all major indexes, we will see if any rise is just working off general oversold levels, with McClellan OSC in deep negative territory.
Richard Russell's NEw Highs VS New low's study has shown a constant deterioration in the health and breadth of the market. It has not YET given a SELL SIGNAL meaning overall lows are now greater than highs in his study, but it is close. We will wait and see what happens.
SInce the Aug/OCT lows I observe the market has been holding above the RISING 20 EMA as I said, that is not the case now. I am not sure how significant this wil be, but it is another piece to consider of the whole technical picture.
BUllishnes continues to roar ahead at historic levels. Gov is cutting military spending, the costs continue to mount in Iraq, the deficits continue to set records as in this AM's $60 Billion number.
The cost of most everything is going up. WHat did your property tax asessment look like when you got it recently? Mine SOARED 30% !! It hadn't gone up a total of 30% the 15 years I have lived there.
Fed is in raising mode, and I feel the back drop to being long this market has deteriorated to the point it nolonger makes sense for me to play it.
A GOOD trader can play the ups and downs, but not the avg speculator.
Insiders selling at record clip!
AMD spanked last night 26%.
The Chinese are taking our dollars and building their military!
Greenspan should have been retired....not knighted. The imbalances continue to pile up, the room for error no longer exists, as consumers are up to their eyeballs in debt.
But, we will survive, we will move on, but it would benice to do so in the best financial shape you can.
Instead of trying to play the game in an over priced market, what is wrong with trying to HOLD ONTO what you got?
DURATEK
Everyone's favorite pessimist. But should not be ignored.
I appreciate everyone's feedback, feel free to email me and I will do my best to respond promptly.
Last 15 minutes rise fron FLAT today seemed disingenuous, orchestrated. But with 20 EMA (exponential moving average) now falling for most if not all major indexes, we will see if any rise is just working off general oversold levels, with McClellan OSC in deep negative territory.
Richard Russell's NEw Highs VS New low's study has shown a constant deterioration in the health and breadth of the market. It has not YET given a SELL SIGNAL meaning overall lows are now greater than highs in his study, but it is close. We will wait and see what happens.
SInce the Aug/OCT lows I observe the market has been holding above the RISING 20 EMA as I said, that is not the case now. I am not sure how significant this wil be, but it is another piece to consider of the whole technical picture.
BUllishnes continues to roar ahead at historic levels. Gov is cutting military spending, the costs continue to mount in Iraq, the deficits continue to set records as in this AM's $60 Billion number.
The cost of most everything is going up. WHat did your property tax asessment look like when you got it recently? Mine SOARED 30% !! It hadn't gone up a total of 30% the 15 years I have lived there.
Fed is in raising mode, and I feel the back drop to being long this market has deteriorated to the point it nolonger makes sense for me to play it.
A GOOD trader can play the ups and downs, but not the avg speculator.
Insiders selling at record clip!
AMD spanked last night 26%.
The Chinese are taking our dollars and building their military!
Greenspan should have been retired....not knighted. The imbalances continue to pile up, the room for error no longer exists, as consumers are up to their eyeballs in debt.
But, we will survive, we will move on, but it would benice to do so in the best financial shape you can.
Instead of trying to play the game in an over priced market, what is wrong with trying to HOLD ONTO what you got?
DURATEK
Flash! Bullish Leuthold comments
**Well, you know where I stand, but it pays to consider another possibility even if I might disagree, so here it is.
1/12/05'As we've said before, this new bull move has been characterized by intra-day reversals to the upside that have led to higher prices. Our 'bear advisor sentiment indicator' is also approaching a high, as the bears have become overexuberant during this, what has it been, a 2% correction or so -- it doesn't take much to get them going these days. At any rate, it seems very likely that we have seen the bottom of this downmove, perhaps the bottom for 2005. While that may be reaching a bit, and while we don't expect the kind of fireworks that occured after our 'melt-up' forecast, it still appears that the S&P is on track for a 12%+ gain during the next 12 months.'
1/12/05'As we've said before, this new bull move has been characterized by intra-day reversals to the upside that have led to higher prices. Our 'bear advisor sentiment indicator' is also approaching a high, as the bears have become overexuberant during this, what has it been, a 2% correction or so -- it doesn't take much to get them going these days. At any rate, it seems very likely that we have seen the bottom of this downmove, perhaps the bottom for 2005. While that may be reaching a bit, and while we don't expect the kind of fireworks that occured after our 'melt-up' forecast, it still appears that the S&P is on track for a 12%+ gain during the next 12 months.'
Monday, January 10, 2005
Thursday, January 06, 2005
EXPOSING THE VIX
http://tinyurl.com/4gc4d 10 yr chart
I recently read a piece on the VIX that says to watch it if it rises above 2002 downtrend line near 17. The falling VIX was BULLISH I agree NOT showing complacency to a point.
My disagreement comes on ASSUMING a RISING VIX will lead to lower prices, though it certainly might, as it did during the BEAR MKT.
http://tinyurl.com/5ng32 10 yr Dow. But the VIX STEADILY ROSE between the period of 1996 and 1998.....SAME TIME the DOW began a steep climb.
Only during 1998-1999 did a falling VIX correlate to a correction in DOW.
The VIX the FELL as the DOW made its current all time HIGHS in 2000 ! SO....how usefull is the VIX?
IMHO ONLY EXTREME readings ABOVE 40 have show to be useful tool......to show EXTREME BUYING OPPS! IMHO
http://tinyurl.com/5hqyx 10 yr SPX/VIX RATIO This RATIO IMHO is extremely helpful SMOOTHING out market action and volatility.
When a serious break up or down the 52 WK SMA occurs a SIGNAL is given, IMHO...early in 2003 (a buy) and early in 2000 (A sell)...we must be watching the TREND of the highs and lows to determine which one it is.
In CONCLUSION: A break of 75.46 would be first sign of REAL TROUBLE. A break of 55.01 PREVIOUS BULL LOW would clinch it IMHO.
ONLY a continued downtrend in the SPX and or persistant RISE in the VIX would accomplish this.
At that point anyone calling it a general correction would be dead wrong, IMHO. especially if 52 WK SMA begins to turn down!
Just my observations, certainly I am NO expert.
Duratek
I recently read a piece on the VIX that says to watch it if it rises above 2002 downtrend line near 17. The falling VIX was BULLISH I agree NOT showing complacency to a point.
My disagreement comes on ASSUMING a RISING VIX will lead to lower prices, though it certainly might, as it did during the BEAR MKT.
http://tinyurl.com/5ng32 10 yr Dow. But the VIX STEADILY ROSE between the period of 1996 and 1998.....SAME TIME the DOW began a steep climb.
Only during 1998-1999 did a falling VIX correlate to a correction in DOW.
The VIX the FELL as the DOW made its current all time HIGHS in 2000 ! SO....how usefull is the VIX?
IMHO ONLY EXTREME readings ABOVE 40 have show to be useful tool......to show EXTREME BUYING OPPS! IMHO
http://tinyurl.com/5hqyx 10 yr SPX/VIX RATIO This RATIO IMHO is extremely helpful SMOOTHING out market action and volatility.
When a serious break up or down the 52 WK SMA occurs a SIGNAL is given, IMHO...early in 2003 (a buy) and early in 2000 (A sell)...we must be watching the TREND of the highs and lows to determine which one it is.
In CONCLUSION: A break of 75.46 would be first sign of REAL TROUBLE. A break of 55.01 PREVIOUS BULL LOW would clinch it IMHO.
ONLY a continued downtrend in the SPX and or persistant RISE in the VIX would accomplish this.
At that point anyone calling it a general correction would be dead wrong, IMHO. especially if 52 WK SMA begins to turn down!
Just my observations, certainly I am NO expert.
Duratek
Wednesday, January 05, 2005
Tuesday, January 04, 2005
MUSICAL CHAIRS
http://tinyurl.com/3l6or If and when the 20 WK SMA turns down, it would be more evidence that a trend change is in place....as I Interpret the chart....even now, it has come down sharply, giving more resemblence to pattern that formed 2000 top and thereafter.
Bearish as I could be, even I will not expose myself any more at this time....I have tried to keep my contrarian positions managable....Should this be the start of something, I VOW not to get carried away and spend MORE time looking for VALUE to appear....and it will.VOLUME on decline is not to be ignored IMHO, highest volume or one of in more than a year? LIGHT volume decline would be ammo for bulls...in a decline...volume picking up is not.New highs almost dissapeared today, don;t look for help from the interest rate sensitive stuff going forward, IMHO.
ANother guy in Mortgage business as in my store this afternoon, and his impression was things were NOT good! imphatically so.He talked about how if even a 5% decline in housing values occurred many would be under water on their loans. How credit card debt was so high, so so many (and he sees it) stretched so far to get into a house. How so many used 2nd mortgages and house equity loans which if rates go up would be hurt.
When you fuel growth by consumption and debt....insead of investment and savings....you get the US.....you get trouble, misallocations.
ALso the 8 and 12 year cycles are topping and now turning down into 2005-2006 range, I again feel great caution is warranted.
Duratek
Bearish as I could be, even I will not expose myself any more at this time....I have tried to keep my contrarian positions managable....Should this be the start of something, I VOW not to get carried away and spend MORE time looking for VALUE to appear....and it will.VOLUME on decline is not to be ignored IMHO, highest volume or one of in more than a year? LIGHT volume decline would be ammo for bulls...in a decline...volume picking up is not.New highs almost dissapeared today, don;t look for help from the interest rate sensitive stuff going forward, IMHO.
ANother guy in Mortgage business as in my store this afternoon, and his impression was things were NOT good! imphatically so.He talked about how if even a 5% decline in housing values occurred many would be under water on their loans. How credit card debt was so high, so so many (and he sees it) stretched so far to get into a house. How so many used 2nd mortgages and house equity loans which if rates go up would be hurt.
When you fuel growth by consumption and debt....insead of investment and savings....you get the US.....you get trouble, misallocations.
ALso the 8 and 12 year cycles are topping and now turning down into 2005-2006 range, I again feel great caution is warranted.
Duratek
Peter Eliades' STock Market Cycles DEC 2004
http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm
I will be posting my outlook for 2005 very shortly.
Duratek
I will be posting my outlook for 2005 very shortly.
Duratek
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