CHI FED

UPDATE 1-Chicago Fed national activity index falls in Sept
Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:33 AM ET (Adds details, table)

CHICAGO, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Wednesday said its gauge of the U.S. economy fell in September as the impact of Hurricane Katrina was felt in production and employment indicators.
The Chicago Fed said its National Activity Index fell to minus 0.71 in September from a downwardly revised minus 0.09 in August, initially reported at plus 0.10.
The three-month moving average of the index was lower at minus 0.20 in September after being at plus 0.16 in August.
Any reading below zero for the three-month average suggests economic growth is below its historical trend. The average had shown above-trend growth for over two years until now.
Production-related indicators were hurt by a 1.3 percent drop in industrial production and a decline in capacity use.
Employment indicators were negative, mostly on a decline in September non-farm payrolls and a higher jobless rate, both tied to the after-effects of Katrina in the U.S. Gulf region.
Consumption and housing indicators made a positive contribution as housing starts and building permits rose and monthly retail sales were strong.
Overall, 36 of the 85 individual indicators tracked by the Chicago Fed made positive contributions in September while 48 made negative contributions and one was neutral.
Following are details of the index:
Monthly index:
Sep 05 Aug 05 (prev) Sep 04
-0.71 -0.09 +0.10 -0.29
Three-month moving average:
Sep 05 Aug 05 (prev) Sep 04
-0.20 +0.16 +0.26 +0.19
NOTES:
A zero shows an economy expanding at historical trends, negative values indicate below-trend growth and positive values signal growth above trend, the Chicago Fed said.

The 85 economic indicators that comprise the Chicago Fed's index are drawn from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders and inventories.


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