BEEFY 2.5 B volume on a big down day. per YHOO 158 new lows ( not the best site but we'll use it) almost 2 to 1 to new highs, this is a BIG change.
Taken by surprise? (not by readers of my blog) where does this take us? to test 1190 on SPX perhaps, if real ugly maybe to test 10K on DOw, which I feel this time will fall, and then real possibility it isn't eclipsed again for some time to come. Figure we have spent quite a bit of time spinning our bullish wheels ABOVE 10K, and not much to show.
Specualtors out in DROVES still, running after anything NEW, hip ,like AVAIN FLU connection, SVA, NVAX etc all running with large volume. EVEN if ONLY in R and D stage, even if vaccine not realistic as the strain mutates. Tamiflu only known (ROCHE) agent to work.
Energy stocks weak as I warned of excessive bullishness, and cutback in consumption would pressure prices and it did. BIG part of SPX strength and profits.
Home builders weak weak along with financials, other half or expanding SPX profit miracle.
FED warnings on inflation, peekafrickinboo!!!! no kidding, hints of continued rate increases.....at the worst time!
WHat else does market sniff? how about top is in?
D
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3 comments:
The correct answer D is always 'maybe'.
We shall see anyway.
I am selling FC and LC to the downside.
Did you notice the VIX? Arch Crawford talk about what would happen when it was over 14 or so.
I notice 3% move on DJU yesterday and -1.6% today already..I think we have to get some 2 to 4% moves on all indexes to get it moving.
500 close under its 200 Day MA
McClellan Index is at 795 at ckose yesterday we shall see.
Good Day D....
Can you believe the fricken spam on the damn blogs!!!
Market exhibiting the kind of weakness (new lows) that SHOULD have puts on fire, but not so. VIX was 2 std deviations above 200 SMA so it now has flattened, NOT exhibiting what i will, but improtant to note it is rising, just as falling VIX is NOT bearish even at LOW levels UNTIL it begins to rise, complacency is seen as bearish but that means the lemmings have no reason to sell.
SO rising VIX not bullish it is sign of a simmering "uneasiness" and even at VIX 40 not bullish UNTIL it falls away.
We got TONS YEARS of bullish readings to feed on....us bears that is.
D
Hi D,
I like ads on buying homes here...LOL
These are smart buyers...LOL
I agree on VIX reading we have to see if this is for real, today we have 1st credible threat 'ever' here in NYC.
NEW YORK — Authorities stepped up security on the city's mass transit system Thursday after receiving a credible threat that the New York City subway may be the target of a terrorist attack (search) in the coming days.
A NYPD source told FOX News that the threat involved 19 suitcase bombs to be placed in the subway system.
I do not work in the city anymore use to at WTC4 my wife still does.
We are pretty use to it now, but this one is the 1st credible threat. I notice ;again' as on and near 911 day the McClellan Index was nearing the zero level, its in this area that large downside moves can take place.
Also there was a warning in July of a major hit to the USA in about 90 days or so, so that time frame is near also. Summindex tonigth is at +632 and falling.
911 could be 1012 next.
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE POLLS that show a current streak of 154 weeks of bullish plurality. If you go back to 1998, there has only been 8 weeks where BEARS outnumbered BULLS! That would be 353 weeks out of last 361 bulls outnumbered bears! This poll goes back 42 years and of course this is a record. Also consider we are now near 3 years into this cyclical bull, it is long in the tooth.
I know you know this but many are talking 1994-95 market again, below stats wipe that idea out.
Contrast that with 1994-5 period, right before the rocket shot to all time highs there was a period where bears outnumbered bulls for 45 straight weeks.
I notice the 10225 level today you mkt move quick off that level. I think that is important area over all.
So far the weekly SPX had is largest move in length of % since 3/21/2003/
See tomorrow ..
I hope.
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