Thursday, October 06, 2005

GOT MILK?

NO!, GOT GAS? NO! higer gas prices, higher home heating prices, higher prices for food, higher property taxes, higher minimum credit card payments, higher adj mortgage payments, rising short term rates finally pushing up longer term rates, weak Pres poll numbers, Iraq War showing no end, domestic agenda stalled, Katrina and Rita storm fallout and costs, talk of cutting gov spending, talk of bird flu pandemic, and so much more have resulted in a DRAMATIC plunge in CONSUMER SENTIMENT.

Now it appears the stock market is playing catch-up with that. I don't know if consumers have met their limit for credit expansion, I'm NOT willing to bet they spend like drunken sailors this XMAS, not after those first heating bills come in!

Higher energy costs are effecting the PROFITS of US Corporations and IMHO earnings estimantes are TOO HIGH leaving ample room for dissapointment.

Is the market ready to look ahead? and will it not like what it sees? Is the cyclical bull near exhaustion? I think so.....the signs are there IMHO.

How can it be good that the edifice of debt ATLAS is carrying is now costing more as rates rise?

Before it seemed illogical that with ROBUST earnings and a strong economy as presented in the data was giving way to FALLING RATES! made NO sense.

Could it be now, as WEAKNESS is being shown, that rates could again act illogically? and RISE?

FED cannot take back resent statements about its WARINESS towards inflation, they will over react and CRUSH what is left of the expansion. Housing stocks have more than just corected, they have fallen flat on their faces.

Duratek

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