Feds Prepare for Super-Flu Disaster
By LAURAN NEERGAARD, AP Medical Writer Sun Oct 9, 3:54 AM ET
WASHINGTON - A super-flu could kill up to 1.9 million Americans, according to a draft of the government's plan to fight a worldwide epidemic. Officials are rewriting that plan to designate not just who cares for the sick but who will keep the country running amid the chaos, said an influenza specialist who is advising the government on those decisions.
"How do you provide food, water ... basic security for the population?" asked Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, a government adviser who has a copy of the draft plan and described it for The Associated Press.
"This is a much more comprehensive view than has previously been detailed," he said in an interview Saturday.
The Bush administration has spent the last year updating its plan for how to fight the next flu pandemic. While it is impossible to say when one will strike, the fear is that the bird flu in Asia could trigger one if it mutates to start spreading easily among people.
A recent draft of the plan, first reported Saturday by The New York Times, models what might happen based on the last century's three pandemics.
In a best-case scenario, about 200,000 people might die.
But if the next pandemic resembles the birdlike 1918 Spanish flu, as many as 1.9 million could die, Osterholm said. Millions more would be ill, overwhelming hospitals.
"You plan for the worst-case scenario," he said. "If it's less than that, thank God."
The government has on hand enough of the anti-flu drug Tamiflu to treat 4.3 million people. Manufacturing of $100 million worth of a bird flu vaccine just began. *(not a clue which company)
The draft makes clear that tens of millions more doses of each would be needed. That is far more than the world has the capacity to manufacture quickly.
To finish that draft plan, federal health officials for several weeks have been role-playing what would happen if a super-flu struck now — not next year, after more medicines and vaccines have been stockpiled.
The strategy, Osterholm said, is, "Don't emphasize what you can buy, emphasize what you can get your hands on. If it happens tonight, how do you deal with order?"
For example, health workers would need to wear special masks, known as N-95 masks, to prevent infection while treating patients. Two U.S. companies produce 90 percent of the world's supply and "we'll run out overnight," Osterholm said.
Also being considered is the possibility that Tamiflu will not be powerful enough to treat someone already sick, but could protect against illness if given beforehand. So who would get the 4.3 million doses?
Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt' recently met with Cabinet secretaries to get other federal agencies to determine their role in stemming rioting at vaccine clinics; when to close schools; how to keep gasoline, electricity, food and water supplies running; and how to manage the economic fallout.
State health officers also are being asked for input, Osterholm said.
"The HHS plan is going to be the foundation of a larger government-wide plan," said Leavitt's spokeswoman, Christina Pearson. "Beyond health care, there are issues with banks and schools, and that states and other place have to have their own plans."
Democrats have criticized the administration for not having a plan. Sen. Tom Harkin (news, bio, voting record), an Iowa Democrat, said in a statement Saturday that time for action was short.
"Having a plan on paper does nothing to protect us," Harkin said while urging the administration to work with Congress on implementing protections against a pandemic. "Next month is too late. The United States is woefully unprepared for this, and we must get started immediately."
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On the Net:
Background on bird flu: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/
**IMHO if a company HAS a vaccine now good for them , not sure who that is, but NVAX and SVA are on early stage R and D as I understand it, so IMHO those 2 stocks dont deserve to be bid up, though I like NVAX for a few other reasons. I have not bought it yet, I dont like chasing stocks nor buying them overbought. HEB is maybe interesting too, as it could be used WITH Tamiflu to make it better, so they say.
BIG BOY SNY may also come into play. Roche makes Tamiflu. I am not sure who if anyone actually has a FDA apprived vaccine for Avian as described in story, if so why didn't they mention the company?
I'm sure with some snooping you could uncover other ones. Is the GOV using this to get our mind off the Katrina cluster bleep? Or Iraq cluster bleep?
D
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3 comments:
A well-planed terrorists hit, would be to destroy the companies or their ability to make anti-flu drug. This could be done in many ways not just blowing buildings up etc., government intervention cause by ‘public opinion’ (the herd) can do it for a short time, time just needed for the plan to be executed.
Such as just before creating or injecting that flu into the general population.
I think the terrorists can sit back, with enough rope the free world will hang themsleves
D
Terrorists will never sit back, in fact that is the thinking that will make them move or raise the bar as to what the next hit should be.
It would be nice to sit and do nothing, that has been done before; "an awful thing is for good men to do nothing."
We are not in a Vietnam type of war, high 'kill ratios' etc.... The 2000 or so dead today is about the same in peacetime being killed in training.
Look to the bright side, this is only the 'start' in fact each American family near the end of the K-wave winter will be affected.
Do nothing...is the general thinking that is out there now, and in fact being use as Clinton had done, and now the the Bush people.
Bush is not ‘at this time’ an aggressive leader but maybe in time he will be. In fact with 3 years left I think its quite possible if the K-wave winter moves right along (as I think it will) we can see another term from him with Congress and the people approving it.
Far fetch..? maybe not, the general thinking now is that they had enough of him and he will not last the term.
Just what till, the sleeping giant awakes, you will not believe what we are capable of doing.
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Gen. Tommy Franks says that if the United States is hit with a weapon of mass destruction (98% thinks that will never happen) that inflicts large casualties, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government.
Franks, who successfully led the U.S. military operation to liberate Iraq, expressed his worries in an extensive interview he gave to the men’s lifestyle magazine Cigar Aficionado.
In the magazine’s December edition, the former commander of the military’s Central Command warned that if terrorists succeeded in using a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) against the U.S. or one of our allies, it would likely have catastrophic consequences for our cherished republican form of government.
Discussing the hypothetical dangers posed to the U.S. in the wake of Sept. 11, Franks said that “the worst thing that could happen” is if terrorists acquire and then use a biological, chemical or nuclear weapon that inflicts heavy casualties.
If that happens, Franks said, “... the Western world, the free world, loses what it cherishes most, and that is freedom and liberty we’ve seen for a couple of hundred years in this grand experiment that we call democracy.”
Franks then offered “in a practical sense” what he thinks would happen in the aftermath of such an attack.
“It means the potential of a weapon of mass destruction and a terrorist, massive, casualty-producing event somewhere in the Western world – it may be in the United States of America – that causes our population to question our own Constitution and to begin to militarize our country in order to avoid a repeat of another mass, casualty-producing event. Which in fact, then begins to unravel the fabric of our Constitution. Two steps, very, very important.”
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The K-wave winter has just started not ended, and the killing has just begun,,,no matter whos in office.
Terrorists never sit back. We just think they do..
:) Your buddy anonymous
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