This indicator helped define the 2002 bottom, the index follows econmomic vitality and strength of consumer.1.18 low is 2 ticks away, a break of could confirm a tough XMAS reatil, and lower prices.
Already there is talk of "cutting" prices to attract shoppers, that's deflationary talk!
Yet it is inflation of the things we MUST have that is giving the consumer the blues.
Nat Gas is 50% above recent prices, and notonly will it crimp disposable income this winter but it is destroying many a corporate profit.
Work week wont budge. Go here for each weeks DATA
http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
SHows consumer ccredit exploded last month by $10B !
A peak of the http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
BLS employment model
AUG high of 10yr to watch is 4.435 this AM 4.416%.
MISC:
Bush talk TOUGH on IRAQ, he isnt paying the price our boys are
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051007/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq
No confidence in BUSH, no confidence in Congress, while I post I hear another blurb about coming PANDEMIC (great moral booster) FLU, IRAQ quagmire, key Republican officials investigated, still NO BID contracts, we're spending near $6B a week in IRAQ. MArket is NOT climbing this "wall of worry" its slipping the Katrina Bull slope.
I have said many times, thinking of what takes the Bull down, and I kept coming up with same thing, INTEREST RATES! COnsidering the ediface of debt we are under, and the incredable need for Foreign Gov to buy our debt, we are at extreme risk here.
ALL this coming with 154 weeks straight of bullish plurality sentiment. SO I wont say chicken little, but I will say, the market is on more shakey ground than the sediment that helped build N.O.
My opinions mean diddley, let's watch the market and see where support is, as we hit a 5 to 1 ratio yesterday of new lows to highs.
Resetting bull? who knows, but unusual behaviour if so. Remember we are now 3 years into bull cycle, no bear mkt bottom data have been fullfilled, I hope the worst doesnt lie ahead, but it could.
Where to hide? what to do? Even thebest minds wrestle with this, I suspect the best thing to do is to raise cash levels, be liquid, control debt, believe half of what "they " tell you. And if you are a friend of Matt, listen to him!.....and drink a few beers, try and keep your sense of humor.
OH, good call Bush, of ALL people, he puts forward his own personal LAWYER for bench seat!
Duratek
1 comment:
I don't think it is all Bush’s fault or even the boys in Washington. I mean we ‘pick them’ even those are out there saying no to that, it’s all about what we have today.
My father always told and ‘tells’ me Hoover was a really hard worker and good Prez but times where just not on his side.
Latter on I investigated and found that Hoover would not allow wasteful spending back then and we did not have a debt line in the Federal Budget, but then, back then we only had 3% of the population working for the governments as today its well over 50% indirectly.
I think it is all excesses of the pass and you can place that on all the Prez...going back 30 or so years now. Does not matter what side.
P.S. If you live in a well to do town or even a middle class town, have you notice in the last 3 years that services are being cut back?
You notice mail is not deliver always on time or even the right address, maybe an english problem there?
Trash pick up cut a little?
No leaves pick up in the street anymore?
These are the 1st signs of a depression.
By D,
Your Buddy Anonymous, have a great and '''safe'' weekend..here near the city people don’t think the war is a joke. I see the hole (WTC) on a regular basics.
But then again…LOL…Maybe that’s me…LOL
Lower some more........DJI
Obsolesce ............
is always the cause………when the big moves happen.
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