RICK AKERMAN POST LINK HERE
Is the US Consumer Economy dead? Did the FEderal Reserve and Gov stimulus avert disaster?
Like a 1929, like Japan 1980 we are trying to recover from a debt overload, Real Estate and Finance BUBBLE.
Given the inflation of our Money BAse, most think inflation is in the cards and Deflation is defeated, inflation is desired over the delfation. SO if the FED creates 2 $'s for every ONE....the debt is the same but we have MORE $'s in which to pay them...wages would rise etc.
Is it working? One asset rising is gold and stocks. But these EXCESS BANKING RESERVES of near $1T have NOT gotten NTO economy in any creative way....and lending has not been stimulated.
Debts are hidden at the BANKS, toxic assets remain at near face value....IMHO we have a ZOMBIE NATION.....and stocks do not reflect the severity of our situation.
Besides that I also think stocks are now extremely OVERVALUED from a historical standpoint, and I await a better valuation to appear.
D
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2 comments:
Dura,
We are closer to the end of the rally than the beginning. When the time is ripe....edz will be the way to go....your thoughts?
Hmmm, only a few know me by that abrev.
Friend,
I see it has fallen $95 to $6....quite the plunge at 3X your action it is risky....when wrong.
WILL the emrging mkts be stronger than ours? maybe so, and they have been.....has the ball been handed to them?
Or how can they do well when the US Consumer may be main customer?
If they can nudge their own consumption instead of saving or investment, that trend could last...but how can addt'l investment pay off now? with too much capacity?
Needless to say a short fund when mkts are topped could return nicely, that said the SHORT side is SO volatile and so risky....
I am continuing to look for topping action and think easy money has been made, this new dawn, the dollar carry trade, you would think time is running out, but mania's like blast off from 1998 lows to 2000 tops busted a ton of shorts...
You can't guess here, some form of TA must be used and I am not sure I would start with a 3X fund..IF this is all make believe...and the lows not in, there will be time to ride it down if that is what you want.
So many things dont make any sense...
I've been tracking the Transports and today that broken bearish wedge was repenetrated...but now price is back to the underside....should the transports break down hard, we might have our first sign...SSEC is still weak too
GL man....I'll keep trying hard to keep the focus on what is important and I am too looking for the turn
Dura
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