SAT MORNING POST "TRENDLINE WATCH"

Some of the "experts" are in disagreement as to what this decline means or foreshadows. I know this, it got started on a REVERSAL DAY where the DOW made a new high and finished RED for the day near its lows. SInce then we have had several 90% plus down volume days and the Dow, SPX, UTES, and TRNS have broken some uptrend support lines, this is one clue that has me thinking it has further to go.

I am thinking the RED support line drawn is a key support and IF broken spells lower prices in the NEAR TERM, it is TOO early to say what kind of decline we will get, but I suspect it is not complete.

SO click on the chart and see the comments I have made. Remember to back space to stay on site.

Would it not seem that for our economy, being 70% driven by the CONSUMER, that they hold the key?

We have near 10% unemployment (we know under reported). We have 7 million lost jobs just since REcession began in 2007. We have falling demand for Consumer loans. We have inability of Consumer to draw money OUT of their homes as before. We have incredable wealth destruction since Bear began. We have at or near HISTORIC lows in consumer confidence. We have slow or NO WAGE GROWTH. WE have a HISTORIC low in the hours of workweek (just ticked down another 10th). We have a shitload of EXCESS CAPACITY....SLACK in economy.

EVEN if the employment situation FIRMS, we don't have job creation and even if we do we are more likely to just give MORE HOURS to those cut back.....before any new hires come aboard.

GOV STIMULUS has been proven mostly ineffective. FED policies are destructive and NOT helping to create job growth or monetary stability.

INTEREST RATES are being held down artificially and proving INEFFECTIVE in stimulating economy, but the MONEY has to go somewhere, I contend it found its way INTO the STOCK MARKETS and the decline of our $ has coincided one to one with MARKETS (THINGS) rise.

Dow, SPX, Utilities and Transports all turning down together. CHinese and Japanese markets have also turned down with SSEC leading the way.

SOme famous BEARS and the world's greatest investor BUFFET all turned bullish at the HIGHS (isn't that wierd?)

We still have near record lows of bullishness towards the US $, in my mind that sets stage for a surprising rally there that will fool the many and will not support stock prices. If the $ was to crash from here, not likely I don't see how that would be good either...has the Quantitative Easing gains run its course? Has the market been mainly effected by unwinding shorts and FED policy? and not much else. LOTS of short fuel been used up.

When that little RED line gets broken on a close, I SUSPECT IMHO next leg DOWN begins.

Duratek