Saturday, October 10, 2009

WHY VOLUME MATTERS Kickoff to Sat Post


* Chart above provided by marketvisions blog
Under the surface of the move Friday, was WEAK DEMAND, WEAK VOLUME and the TRANSPORTS "TEST" of the underside of it's "BROKEN" bearish wedge trendline.
We could see price recapture the channel, OR we could see price repulsed downward "unexpectedly" and this should be cause for at minimum short term caution.
What IS normal in expanding BULL MARKETS is steady increase in volume especially in the early stages, what we see as the DOW and SPX come up into the APEX of this narrowing wedge and near 7 month rally when almost everyone is BULLISH is a continued contracting in volume.
We should NOT see bond yields return PENNIES on the dollar. We should NOT see a SPX 500 DIVIDEND YIELD OF 2%. We should NOT see PE's in the stratosphere, as I showed with previous Rosenberg piece. (from KD site) We should NOT see weekly claims STILL ABOVE 500,000. We should NOT see continued contracting loan volume. WE should not see 0% FED FUNDS RATE, we should NOT see EXCESS BANK Reserves of near $800 Billion, we should NOT see stocks reflecting almost 5 years of recovery, it should NOT take north of 6 months to find a job and in fact they don't and get DROPPED from the list some 500,000 at a crack and then THAT makes the % of unemployed look better than it is. We should NOT see a GOV deficit of $1.5 TRILLION a year or more, you should NOT see the FED buying 100% of CDO'S, and you should NOT see the FED monetizing the debt even as Bernanke was shown in testimony to say the FED was not doing so. You would not see OBAMA come away with the Nobel Peace Prize for doing NOTHING!
Banks are hiding zombie assets either on or off balance sheets and continue to be allowed to state their own values VS MARK TO MARKET ACCOUNTING (Ok to change grules in middle of game?)
With a near 70% Consumer economy, with little or NO ACCESS to credit, HELOC'S, as too many homes are UNDER WATER and are worth less than paid for, with 7 MILLION PLUS not your working stiffs....so these cannot consume as had been, cannot save but try to survive, cannot send money into stock mkt via retirement funds, cannot get loans with no job......YOU TELL ME how the stock market has advance in V shaped, near parabolic trajectory with the ENGINE for our economy frozen solid?
"Castles made of sand, slip into the sea, eventually"
I like MOMO when early in game, I don't like MOMO as it becomes a game of CHICKEN, and MUSICAL CHAIRS, because THEY cannot continue to REFLATE as they have been, keep playing these DANGEROUS GAMES of HELICOPTER MONEY DISTRIBUTION without VERY SERIOUS REPERCUSHIONS...IMHO
An already DISTORTED economy has become one helluva FRIGHT MASK...
Duratek

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