Saturday, April 17, 2010

THE UNSUSPECTING

Let's not argue on recovery, let's assume we ARE in a recovery and we won't dip back into recession (even if you think we never left).

We would like to see job generating and money changing hands and let it grow and spread to many areas of economy.

Will the many housing related, construction and finance jobs come back? Will we grow our manufacturing base? Can homeowners draw from home equity to increase spending? Are banks lending? Are banks tightening standards?

Are wages growing? Banks paying any interest on deposits? How's business confidence? Consumer sentiment?

Why did Friday report still show VERY high unemployment claims above 480,000?

There is an elephant holding onto the tail of the economy, there is a tremendous deflationary PULL and recovery from a bursting debt bubble does not occur as stock market infers....with a RECORD REBOUND...I would argue I don't see a V SHAPED RECOVERY as depicted in stocks.

And this summation from the always astute Doug Noland

"At the center of it all, policymaking at home and abroad has distorted market perceptions and market pricing mechanisms. The unsuspecting again have little notion of the underlying risks they are accepting. Fleeing zero rates and chasing inflating securities prices, investors have been left again dangerously exposed to another financial Bubble and a postponed economic restructuring. It may never be called “fraud” or “misrepresentation. The outcome will be about the same. At the end of the day, markets are made or broken on Trust."

D

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