Monday, April 05, 2010

YIELDS CONTINUE UPWARD MARCH


Ratesnow consolidating above the 200 WK moving average, I think early to get excited, but if yields continue their upward march, at some point they may offer competition to stocks...maybe that's closer to a 5% yield.
OIL continues its break out now above $86 a barrel and Premium gas now above $3 and rising, higher interest rates and energy prices take away from consumer spending.
The savings rate had been rising but now has fallen back to around 3.1%, as wages remain flat.
At some level I think the economy has revived, but not nearly to extent the gov is touting or robust enough to produce meaningful job growth, rising costs of borrowing and energy threaten what little recovery we have going. Cost of food is reaching new highs.
If the US economy was reaching a point where sustainable recovery was taking hold as the historic rally would infer, the longer rates are held at ZERO the more bubbles will form....the damage and inbalances....
THEY aren't as smart as they think they are, the people not so dumb.....glad to be back from Phoenix with final day spent in Sedona.....hiking to peak of Bear Mountain one of my favorite hikes.
Duratek

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