SPX 1600? A CHAIR WAITS FOR YOU, THE MUSIC PLAYS ON

I think the S and P 500 can reach near 1600 before this bullish trend is over. That would reside INSIDE channel I have drawn.

By then I am expecting the MACD to also NOT CONFIRM this marginal new high as it didn't in 2007, and by then the MFI will have begun its descent.

Should this pan out, there is a VERY good chance the NEXT leg of SECULAR BEAR MKT would be in play and so would the possibility of moving to new lows or at least a TEST of the 2009 MArch lows.....all JMHO.

I read a piece where it suggests each profits recovery in the past has topped higher than previous (roughly $90), so we will also be tracking that.

The CAVEAT to me is that financial earnings are "engineered" by suspension of MARK TO MARKET accounting, so how can we compare todays financial earnings reports with any previous? WHAT IS A PROFIT IF THE LOSS IS NOT RECOGNIZED AT CURRENT MARKET VALUE? WHAT ARE BANKS WHEN PROFITS ARE COMING MAINLY FROM "TRADING PROFITS???!!"

Tulips, Railroads, Internet, Housing.......the new mania is GOV DEBT.

Remember last Friday was a big down day near 94% down volume, that may be KICKOFF of the long awaited 10% or so correction that any BULL MKT is not immune to.

Historical stats say this move has further to go, and I guess as far as making money long goes, until momentum dies where your money is laying, game on. AFter near 75% rise from lows, what % rally remains? To 1600 is about 30% near 400 SPX points.

We got here with questions about little guy participation and less than bull mkt type volume increases......that obviously didn;t stop prices from rising.

We have a GOV which is growing and this is crowding out the public sector.

We got here while unemployment worsened, bank credit contracted,wages are flat, home values fell, sales not recovering from near historic lows with huge stimulus and ZERO FED FUNDS RATE.......but because of monster head count cutbacks....earnings appear to have recovered....with monster reduction of overhead...perhaps resultant productivity increases.

I can look down the road and see a less appealing landscape, but I have NO PROOF a top is in....

Unlike in the past when the FED dropped their drawers on rates, this has helped Wall Street, has done little or DAMAGED Main Street as savers get gored.....basically FORCING them into risk oriented gaming to attain decent returns....IMHO anything but a balanced landscape from which a sustainable meaningful real world recovery is taking place.

Duratek