Sunday, April 11, 2010

TIMES LIKE THESE

After reading that BULLISH ON AMERICA NY TIMES piece I felt the need to well disagree.

This is not 1990 nor is it 1982 ! What is this idiot smoking? IS the debt structure now the same, have we had a credit crisis? did we have 8 MIL plus out of work? wages declining? bank loans contracting? FED funds at ZERO? INDEBTED US to almost 1 to 1 with GDP ($14 T)? The need to finance over $1T each year as far as eye can see? Home equity? you get my point.....

Consumer spending recently has been boosted of all things "strategic defaults" freeing many of interest payments and GOV handouts of nearly $200B....is this sustainable?

We are a great country? WHY are we laying off firemen, police and teachers? My wife just got job in Nov at a title 1 school in B'more County, was told Fri she and 6 others would not has job next year...was told excessed...we know it's cutbacks.....and the QUALITY we always hear from the I say anything to get elected officials....education is NOT a priority except for speaches.....the world is passing us by in education and better in position to compete for those coming jobs and in manufacturing, well you already know story there....where will the jobs come from in the future? yeah service jobs....what for fing Walmart?

Higher energy prices translate into less available for spending which in turn adds to DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO as do falling to flat home prices....flat wages...contracting credit.
Total credit mkt debt has begun contracting as recent chart shows....this won't turn on a dime.

"Why do people ignore the bullish signs?" article implores......because people on street are suffering, people in real world cannot find jobs.....in the REAL WORLD Banks can show large profits even as their loan portfolios dry up????????????????????????

In March of 2009 (or just before) the GAO changed an accounting rule that allows banks to FALSIFY earnings.....this is not stressed enough even by remaining bears that the FINANCIALS make up a HUGE part of SPX earnings and IMHO rising SPX profits from energy related and financials DISTORT overall health of US economy.

WHAT would current landscape look like if this upcoming earnings season was returned to rules that existed during and before crisis of reporting operating conditions? MARK TO MARKET VALUE? Anything other than close to real value is make believe....hence investors buying into make believe profits and recovery.

What have we done after the crisis began that has actually changed anything? dealt with real issues?

Now we are building the MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES....GOV FINANCE.......strategic defaults and principal mortgage forgiveness alone point to valuations of banks being far less than original face value of the paper they hold or the ones hoisted to FEDERAL RESERVE which in turn is guaranteed BY THE PEOPLE.

Yeah, great JOB leaders, handoff the resulting PAIN from the crisis caused by those still employed to the US citizen balance sheet which will result in higher taxes and lower standard of living....even as we pile even more gov spending and entitlements on top of everything already there we can't pay for.

SO here we are at the early stages of a new sustainable economic ecovery and a brave new world?

BS

Duratek

No comments: