Duratek's Lament

At SOME point, my mindless ramblings will suddenly have someimportance....or all of this is in my head leaning to delusions of grandeur? Not so, I Know I am just another bozo....so come on let's clown around.

What is MISSING (MIA)in this market? WHY oh WHY can't I be convincedwe are in ANOTHER bull market and just GO LONG young man and all my troubles will be done? WHY oh why am I so damn stubborn? or worse?Let's explore my insanity shall we?....or my inability to do as toldand follow the herd.....man do I always have to rock the baot?What is missing is the LACK OF DOUBT in this market, I am not talkingabout the preverbial "wall of worry" I am talking about an absence of BEARS!! a DEN of bears.....foaming about how the end is near, watchout for trouble etc....where is the PLURALITY of GRRRRRR'S???? WHY isthere a dull thud, an ECHO in the cave?During the GREAT BULL MKT of the 90's do you know we had a periodwhere we went an entire year where Bears outnumbered Bulls? From OCT EWFF ".....the significance of the optimism keeps expanding, the LONGER the BULLISH BUZZ lasts, the harsher the BUST is likely to be.

"It has been "502 WEEKS"!!!!!! (last 1995) since the bears outnumbered bulls in a period. EWFF points out that during that time, almost 10years, bears ONLY outnumbered bulls (by 5%) of the time 26 weeks!!!and this coming DURING the most devestating BEAR mkt since the great depression!ADD to that during this recent 2004 DOw series of DECLINING tops andlower lows, the SENTIMENT of bullishness has been GROWING!!!Now bulls outnumber bears 2 to 1.

After ALL that has happened, speculation in GOOG has drove it to new highs near $200 near double just a month or so ago!Both MArket VAne and Investors Intelligence readings are at levelsseen at PRIOR TOPS......so GOOG skyrockets (over $50 Billion mktcap!!!!!!!!!! DOUBLE GM!!) as the not important anymore DOW giantsDIVE?? AIG GM FNM??? 3M PFE !!!! at same time SPX 600 Small caps madenew highs? but have now started to decline.Coming into an uncertain election, we find the recent 5 day CPC plummeting to .70???

However, maybe annomaly but VIX spiked Friday. It is likely the TRAN index is some kind of important high RSI oversold, should put pressure on it, so we now are situated where theTrannies at LEAST need a breather, but Dow will persist higher?Like in 2000 we have the NAZ rising as the Dow has been declining....ANOTHER divergence.

This past Recession (2001) was called MILDEST on record, but theRecovery in ALL Aspects has been the WEAKEST, no one is talking aboutthat.In recent report Help Wanted ads index sunk to low of 36, missingestimates, yet not a peep in press. Wages stagnant, hours workedstagnant....employment stagnant.....COSTS are RISING.Phase I of Bear market had completed, and IMHO Phase II is about tobegin in earnest....it has been seperated by a 2 YEAR CyclicalBull......the JOB of has been to set up the next phase in lullinginvestors to think the coast is clear.We KNOW what a bear market BOTTOM is supposed to look like. 6% SPXdividend yields and SINGLE digit PE ratios.The bear bottom has NOT been allowed because of stimulus and FEd policy.....it has NOT eliminated its coming...ONLY delayed it.

D