AT A CROSSROADS IN SO MANY WAYS

First up the TRIN. EWT points out Fri STU that it has closed BELWO 1.0 for 8 STRAIGHT DAYS!, last accomplished in LATE 1999 not far from Bubble high in Dow. Dick Arms suggests looking at 4, 21, and 55 day moving averages to look for trend reversals.

The DailY Sentiment Index has pushed to an extreme reading. The VIX has pushed to an extreme reading, yet volume is punkish and in last 4 weeks the Dow has narely budges with ALL this bullishness.

The NAZ is faced again with resistance at 2100, though it certainly can push above, coming to 2098 friday with Big Board in rally mode, decided not to join in, ending basically unchanged for the day. Coincidence?

Transports show a supporting 52 wk average, but volume is declining and RSI and MACD IMHO do not support rise, which you can see are WELL below it's all time highs....

SPX/VIX ratio at prior extremes, as noted before, WELL ABOVE previous 1999-2000 records! and now approaching SAME for THIRD TIME!

A continued rise of stocks or fall in VIX would result in another extreme extreme. You can also see the rise from 2002-2003 lows as WELL developed, there is MUCH complacency to FEED the return of the BEAR.

GOLD is diverging from the path of SILVER, as GOLD SPIKES SILVER trades sideways. SILVER resistance is seen at $7.64 ish. Gold is nearing near term overbought. However weekly buy MACD signal. Near term daily pattern, see RSI near 70 (overbought) See weekly SILVER and lower peaks for MACD and RSI.

With OPEX Friday behind, Monday could give clue to bear term action, Monday normally an operators dream.

Crude OIL trend is firmly UP. Market has ignored? Market ignored Recession suggesting NEGATIVE PHILA FED reading?

Pattern of LEI? more next week, has been decidedly down.

The market can and will do anything. Russell's PTI is at NEW HIGH and he remarks it is at one of highest bullish readings, yet I observe, NO NEW HIGHS in the indexes, especially the DOW.

Can we have a housing bubble if so many say we have a housing bubble? Home builder stocks continue their upside march.

Euro weakness could be causing some of the metal buying we have seen, as gold had been moving higher even with rising US Dollar.

High Beta NAZ could be initial clue, watch for break of 2100 or break around 2079 ish for early clue.

I think trend reversal could be at hand, but I am not on bullish herd move, and I stand aside.

Bulls ignore IRAQ, the casualties, the cost, ignore oil, ignore overvaluations, ignore cyclical bull is long in the tooth. Always interesting and confoudning.

Duratek