Everyone SEES the COMET COMING

UNLIKE a certain STOCK or commodity, IMHO the housing market, talked about in so many respects so far as being a BUBBLE, will NOT delay its eventual bursting.

Because unlike everyone observing it's a humid day...they are right, it's a humid day....certainly sooner or later cool weather will come.....but it is not the WORDS which are telling, it IS the ACTIONS of those observing which cast the ballot.

And the record sales of homes, the 1/3 of homes bought for SPECULATION, the PRICE action of homes are what I DERIVE my contrarian opinion about its eventual outcome.

ALSO, I can spot MANY stories about how the "housing BOOM has legs". MUCH of the stock action in housing has been BAD BETS by the shorts covering.

IN the piece Russell posted last night in Economist, it talked about how GREENSPSN SHOULD be talking about and also raising rates more aggresively.

BUT as the FED rate has gone from 1% to 3%, the 10 YR has fallen from around 4.9% to under 4% !!!

The FED has been LIQUIFYING as the other side of mouth has tightened, indeed it is the FLOW of fiat currency that matters most. and the $$ getting recent boost from the even more feeble other fiat currencies like the EURO.

UNLIKE STOCKS, homes are NOT liquid, and cannot be sold QUICKLY (the speculators) to RAISE CASH.

The FED, if wanting to really slow housing, would be SELLING treasuries, not buying them.

I was riding my bike yesterday, saw a house for sale, beautiful country like setting, farm and horse country. 2.4 acres, 4200 SQ ft, OLD OLD Colonial, house in NORMAL area without house boom gets maybe $150,000. PRIVATE SALE $695,000

I then look at my house, not 50 yrs old, but 20, all modern and fixed up on golf course lot, that would make my house worth..$900K (asessed value was under $500K) and I think....BS my house is worth IMHO maybe $700K and that's based on orig buy plus money we put in and a MODEST % of increase in value.

WE IN A HEEP A TROUBLE BOSS.