The real value in the wolrd is right in front of you, right in the home....in your relationships.
The markets, and life as we know it could be at a very important crossroads, a pinacle so to speak. House prices soaring, markets ignoring no wage growth, record oil and record debt, VIX making new lows, life is good.
There's mold on the bread my friends, and all you see is made of sand...and in a firey inferno will turn to glass and shatter for those not paying attention and prepared.
I'm talking about a 7 (SEVEN)YEAR PERIOD that the Market has been topping, especially in the DOW (NO NET PROGRESS, in FACT LOWER) BUT at SAME time we have seen (Investors Intelligence) 339 out of 348 weeks with PLURALITY of BULLS!
YES, even during BRUTAL Bear market this time span ONLY saw 9 WEEKS where Bearish opinion dominated!
Last great Bear MKT saw over 40 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS of bearish polls! of plurality !
The 2000 BUBBLE MKT was WAY OVER THE TOP in valuations, set EVERY BULL MKT RECORD, yet the AVG investor thinks the bear is gone!? a LOW is in? BS
Precther asks, is an index saw earnings fall to MINUS $100 from PLUS $300 and the PE fall to infinity. And OIL rise to new highs (Transport Index) HOW MUCH would you have expected that index to fall by? With little or NO dividends paid?
Answer, the Transports hit NEW HIGHS! My Contrarian voice is SCREAMING HISTORIC COMPLACENCY and BULLISH SENTIMENT!
BUT, the TRansports are now underperforming and have formed an ugly H and S formation.
Now it seems everyone is hopping on the commodity train. OIL will never go down, and NEW FUNDS keep popping up for GOLD OIL etc, but gold has gone NOWHERE in a decade! EURO land is hopping al lover GOLD in a frenzy to protect from weak EURO! but bullishness towards Euro at all time lows. and opposite to the dollar, it appears Gold has unhinged itself from lock step anti $$ action of late.
And no one asking WHY SILVER sits STUPIFYED in silence and has not GAPPED, spiked ahead with Gold? I SAY MAJOR Non- CONFIRM of Gold's recent action , until Silver breaks $7.64 ish. IS SILVER acting as a manufacturing element?
PHILA FED says LOOK OUT, LEI'S have said LOOK OUT, investors say "what me worry?"
Investors in LOVE with Small Caps continues...and ANY catchy TECH name TZOO, GOOG....wiling to pay insane premiums to own the NAME. GOOG 20 X BOOK 20 X Sales! unprecedented orgy....and foolish.
WHY (I have emailed Russell on NUMUROUS occasion to include the chart I send and mention the BDI to NO avail) is the Baltic Dry Index is a STEEP DECLINE and Tailspin? IF the CHINESE ECONOMY and world's economy is sound and expanpanding?
The UPTREND LINE formed from the 2002 to 2004 lows has been SLICED through like it wasn't there in the BDI index. THE BDI (explained in detail on my blog) is one of the MOST RELIABLE indicators of coming economic trend...and its been STRAIGHT DOWN!
SO, IMHO GOLD is ONLY reacting to currency trends, NOT ACTUAL RAMPANT INFLATION, even if CPI and PPI are MANIPULATED and DISTORTED.
Money creation by the FED has been unprecedented in the last 39 months, creating 6 to 1 $$$ in that time span to what came before it!
CRISIS MODE is what the FED seems to be in, and ALL we have to show for it is IPODS and a hOUSING BOOM/BUBBLE?
What of the greater economy? Job Creation? Wage growth? Savings? How can we INVEST if we have NO savings? You can't unless you BORROW, as we do almost ALL of the worlds savings! WE LOSE BIG!
Credit mkt debt is WAY BEYOND ANY HISTORIC PREVIOUS HIGH. I feel we have entered the final phase of credit expansion as described and shown in KOndratief cycles, and will be enterring a period of credit expansion, we JUST cannot keep the FIAT and DEBT expansion going indefinately, especially if we have already surpassed historic extremes....by a freakin' mile!
The sucking sounds of the black hole of contraction and debt....and DEFLATION (a forgotten phrase)are now exerting their mortal forces.
NDX wary of 2100, a break could extend the hype for a period, so far reluctant....with SPX/VIX ratio at a triple TOP of orgasmic HIGHER than previous BUBBLE TOP levels, I just don't see much upside surprise of FUEL left here.
ALL IMHO BWDIK! sorry my first post here and maybe last in months is not optimistic, but I feel the bear has not been satiated, and knowing how long this CYCLICAL BULL has lasted, and how it hasn;t been able to make headway in sometime, new levels of PTI have not been able to bring NEW HIGHS,.....it is as if time stands still....FED keeps pumping and pumping, and the money...may be sitting there as if the perverbial "you can bring a horse to water, but can;t make him drink"
Prime Reatil closeout sites go unfilled, and shoppers absent.....the orgy nears an end.
We have trouble abroad, it now goes ignored by the new Millionaires.....and the Bush crowd has effectively STOLEN our Constitutional Rights visa ve the Patriot Act....again, the masses are stupifyed! and we are NO safer as we GIVE AWAY our rights to privacy, as the Unconstitutionally created FED destroys our currency and controls our financial destiny, WHAT FREE MARKETS?
With nothing more than Financial Boobery and having borrowed OODLES from future demand for HOusing and Auto's, the old DRIVERS of our economy, dying manufacturing, and worldwide competition for Service Sector jobs.......a NEW WORLD ORDER is occuring, not the one BUSH wanted...or is it?
911 gave Bush just what he needed to install his secret doctrine.....so did he have advance knowledge of its coming?
Something is wrotten in Denmark, yet it's aroma goes nearly undetected.
The market as I see it poised like a VENUS FLYTRAP, and there is no escape for the sleeping LEmmings.....smart money never seems to become the bagholders....unfair as it seems.
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4 comments:
I agree with everything you say here. Just one question, where is the smart money putting its money? Bonds? Kind of worried about those, particularly if money printing press Bernanke is hell bent on getting inflation going even if it means dropping money from helicopters. Gold? Like you said, it's been going nowhere. It's still a safe asset that will hold it's value somewhat even during deflation. Any other investment vehicles?
My thinking is a BASKET of closed end 5 to 8% funds.
Maybe a few utilities, a few energy trusts, and some shorter term bonds, you can spread it out so they always are coming due to reinvest like 3,6,9 month TBILLS, and maybe a few 5 yrs.
Capitol One offers a 4.5% 5 yr CD. NOT glamorous or exciting. Some gold, even Precther says is cool.
Russell mentioned GIM fund, now yields 7%. A simple search with give you a list of funds to choose.
I like MNY, but I am in MD, so no taxes on nice yielding Muni's. But like you said, the RUSH for yield could cause some kind of Titanic shift which would come with its own pain.
I am keeping MOST of my horde in (was hated) CASH! I want to stay VERY liquid, should deflation ever become reality and stocks drop by 50% as I think they might.
With VALUATIONS SO HIGH by historic standards, one must be VERY careful, best to you.
D
Thanks for those tips. Looks like gold is on a tear today! Silver is not confirming though. Looks like silver is acting as an industrial metal...
Not a problem my friend, apprciate you stopping in.
As is always the case, uou NEVER know how any move will play out until you put up your hard earned cash.
Many learned friends were IN gold, but did not ADD to recent positions. LOOKING back, a $35 NEM should have been a buy on my list, even if for short term gains.
I feel I am very well read and knowledgable, but I cannot say my trading arm is loose and doing well.
Most definately, if you like to trade, there is ALWAYS something to play (an EBAY at low $30 a month ago etc)
Being BEARISH does not mean you stop trading.
I have never advocated shorting individual stocks, a bear fund for small % of cash may be OK....but I think BEST to watch and be READY for any VALUES when they do show.
This is a trading market, not a value market.
It is odd SILVER not tagging along, a break of $7 or $7.64 would be telling.
D
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