BDI Connection "Our Destruction Made IN America!"

To continue:

It is my belief then that we have shot ourselves in the foot by misdirecting GROWTH to China/Asia with reckless feckless Fed and Bushite stimulus good buddy policies and you can lead a horse but it drank from the fountain of growth and prosperity in China while we /US drank in excess consumption and debt!

We have WASTED economic growth and traded it in for Credit Expansion and ASSET inflation! Do you understand me? And this cannot be taken back!!!!

Unintended consequence is the commodity price explosion as demand for raw materials levitated in Asian PRODUCING nations, then raising the spector of dreaded STAGFLATION at home or worse!

The SILVER bullets needed to raise the Titanic/US economy have been used and abused, and wasted.

Lowering Fed Funds next time to try and kick start economic growth after their rate hikes killed it, as they ALWAYS do, will not have same elastic miraculous effect as previous, you can't go home again.

5 years of historic growth in housing and prices for same have done 2 things. Borrowed from future demand (we now have over 70% of population owning a home) and raised prices for same to where average person can ill afford it! So they make loans available to many who shouldn't have them, with interest only or worse piggyback loans!

We now have over invested in Chinese production, now our Banks are going over there at the expense here at home, the preverbial wad is shot, wad of cash that is.

In the end the dollar will crash again, this time 80.00 support will not hold, Chinese goods and commodities tied to $$$$ will rise and choke us off. Consumers can already ill afford cost of gas hikes, or cost of property tax increases, cost of living. If $10 or $20 a week is hurting people, it tells you maxxed out they are.

SO we have excess manufacturing capacity in China, in the world, the abilit of consumers to dig deeper into credit/debt bag making it possible to expand.

But like the decline in the dollar and BDI, I think as so far as for now an inverse relationship, in the end our ultimate salvation could be (depending on CHinese currency valuation) the destruction of our currency, and rebirth of MADE IN AMERICA!

A country which does not make what it consumes is poor and indebted to the world. We then no longer retain the rights to our destiny, as we have auctioned it off to the world, they hold our debt in the palm of their hands.

Instead of jobs for American workers, we get the birth of the Asian tiger, you can create LIQUIDITY, but you CANNOT control where it goes!

SO, this liquidty did as I said, plus floated almost ALL BOATS including of course equity prices.

which, if you hadn't noticed? have been spinning wheels for many many months.

Could the recent rebound in dollar and fall in BDI signal the winds of change are in the air? DAMN good chance!

ALL things move in cycles, we now have Fed tightening instead of loosening, we have almost synchronised topping or falling markets and indexes.

We have near historic bullishness, and this in the face of a market going NOWHERE and well below its previous bull market highs!!!!!!!!

Don't you think what housing COULD conribute to the economy it already has? Then WHY one MUST ask, did we end up with weakest Recovery from Recession in job growth and wages? I have answered that above.

WIth consumers now saddled with historic debt and sluggish wages and job growth is lowering the fed funds rate going to do the same it did in 2001-2003? Then you're with with me?

Floatation of VOLUME OF FIAT $$$ CREATED has NO equal to this FED! In last 40 months the FED has created 6 to 1 $$$$ that were already in circulation from the beginning of its existance! WOW! WOW!

I'M NOT HERE to cheerlead, just to share my opinion and make you think, have I succeded? Duratek@yahoo.com I may not be able to respond to all of you, but will read and love to recieve your email.

When I started my blog one year ago, I didn't envision having readers from all over the world, I have heard from investors so far as far away as Germany. I am honored and humble, and it keeps me going.

Some insist I change a monthly fee, for now I say NO, in the future who knows. I am not ready for such and would probably keep my blog going anyway. Knowledge and the ability to make decisions based on that take time and patience, to get it right.

My main focus for now and has been to get my readers to think, to warn, to inform, but NOT to agree necessarily with everything I write and to record my thoughts and research.

I appolgize for not masetring all the blog can do up til now, as far as posting my charts, the links to those charts will have to do for now. The description of my annotations as well.

Nothing is straight, and so trends sometime develop under our noses, but we can look for clues, divergences and use history as our guide to look into future.

The direction this country is going under Bush is not a good one, loss of liberties, war, deception, seperation of State and CHurch and broadening the gulf between the Haves and Nots.

How can one justify HUGE INCENTIVES/tax breaks to the energy conglomerates, who have made RECORD PROFITS??????? it is rediculous of course, the end game should be enough for them, profits motivate investment! ENOUGH!

SO we sit at never before seen levels of cash in mutual funds and in savings??? nothing to fall back on.

The AGONY won't begin until the domino effect begins, and the selling intensifies to the point where it FEEDS on itself and spirals out of control.

We got to peak SPX profits with financials (low rates, mortgages and carry trade from Bond spreads) and ENERGY....I would look there for weakness, my friends, a fall in XOM and related companies from fall in OIL prices and fall of housing wil have DEVESTATING effects on our economy and your portfolio IMHO and I think it has nothing to do with IF, and everything to do with when.

Duratek