SOME DOW TA Observations

’03 Rally year rallied right thru “bad season”,
Short pause in early Sept, then full speed to yr end.

FEB was high in ’04 and ’05 !! Stocks now lower than in FEB ‘04
Steep decline began in EARLY Sept ’04 bottomed in MID OCT set up rally to DEC but declined into mid JAN then set up Jan/FEB ’05 high with sharp rally.

Right shoulder off 10,940 high now in place in area of 10,651, left shoulder way back in ’04 at 10,627 Feb

Conclusion 10,940 key to Bullish case (maybe even 10,627-51) or bearish case if holds.
Bearish case break of 10K

SToch weekly declining along with WEAK MACD support bearish SEPT IMHO

WE might first now get some points into VERY early Sept, then seasonal weakness takes over.