My talk with Pieter on RR

We were discussing an essay on why the BLS presents the data as they do, and my friend Pieter suggested they use a form or the 20 EMA of some "volatile" inputs instead of disgarding them entirely. We get a wierd skewed manipulated feel from the BLS.


Damn it's hot today! You could CUT the humidity in Baltimore, left 10
AM for 20 mile bike ride, only half of me returned!

Credit where credit deserved my learned friend.

I am respectful of the 20 EMA, to project on other data as you suggest is so simple to be genius.

Certainly things occur that gyrate true readings, we are after truth not fabrications (in OZ). To see certain things come out of the BLS data completely which then distort GDP etc even more, to a thinking man makes sense, only because we know why it is done.

Falsifying data knows no party affiliation. The US of A survives off a GDP which MUST make us appear as the king of the hill economy or we won't be as likely to attract the debt butterflies just by shaking our tree.

REALITY would bring much higher interes trates.

With weak 5 yr note sale where foreign buyers barely showed up, you can imagine who then did.

No thank you for repsonding in the most intelligent and thoughtful manner.

As you say, to IGNORE the cost of energy and housing and such just because it is volatile, is to ignore its effect on all of us.

I'll go further and say 5 yr rise in housing prices, monthly rise in oil, higher property taxes ignored etc....where is the volatility? what has been easy to predict is the direction!