Saturday, September 17, 2005

"GOLD IN TEHM THAR HILLS?" SAT POST

I wouldn't normally do this, but I will post last par from Fri EWT and credit due a link to their website as I think it important to share this info. a one time event as it is paid sub one I suggest you check out!

http://www.elliottwave.com"After three straight higher opening gaps, [December Gold] closed at $463.30 today, beyond the $458-$460 target listed Wednesday. While a case can be made that prices completed the last leg of wave (2), which has been out top interpretation, the price action in the spot market and the developments in silver, the higher-beta metal, now makes this view highly suspect. Moreover, gold is now rallying against nearly all currencies and many commodities, which is another positive factor and hints that a growing distrust of fiat currencies is taking hold. I am not exactly sure what the correct wave labels are at the moment, though gold might have just completed a triangle too (the low point came at the July 15 low), which would imply a sharp thrust above $471, basis December. While the price action over the past three days has been strong, it also has created an extreme overbought condition, as seen in the Relative Strength Index at the bottom of the chart and more so by the fact that prices closed the day 2.3 standard deviations above the average price over the prior 20 days. Typically gold prices will be within 1-3 days of at least a short-term decline when they become this overbought (see red arrows on chart). And at times the declines have turned into protracted sell-offs, such as the strong overbought condition that accompanied the February 2003 high. But with silver in a seemingly bullish position and with spot gold having pushed past its equivalent December 2 high ($457.60), we can no longer remain short-term bearish gold. Nor are we bullish gold. Instead, tonight we are moving to a neutral stance until we gain greater confidence in the wave pattern and until prices relieve the current overbought extreme. We’ll obviously have more to say as the pattern continued to develop and we are able to hone in on a specific count."
Say what you, it is helpful to see certain parameters, GOLD has busted out, as they against ALL currencies, SIlver appears to now want to play catch up (silver shares maybe undervalued?).
All this taking place with RSI into overbought, IMHO a short term pullback when comes should set up next leg up, and it appears not likely that gold nor silver will violate support when doing so, but be watchful perhaps. Adam HAmilton Bullish HUIhttp://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1126887987.php
WHat has changed my mind is action of bond yields, in face of record drop in Consumer Confidence, usually beneficial to Bond prices.The TA on Bonds may seem cloudy at moment.
Making matter more cloudy I see a pattern from 2002 of higher lows but lower highs!!!
From BELOW it gapped above the 20wk and 50wk EMA this week!The 50 at 4.207
A daily closeup http://tinyurl.com/cypo8 bullish on yields as well with weekly giving LOTS of rom to rise if it so desires. YOU can see last high it MUST rise above to signal a potential trend change.Weekly slow stoch turning up from midline.
To make matters MORE interesting the yield has HIT the top BB http://tinyurl.com/8q63r
They dont make it easy. Golds strong move also came with little weakness from the $$.
Are the COmmercials finally going to have thier heads handed to them by the little guy? if SO, how important is it to see what commercials are doing VS the rest? WHEN THEY COVER? are they?
http://tinyurl.com/8dds8 MACD crossing up bullish for yields IMHO NOT OVERSOLD. is money LEAVING BONDS FOR GOLD?
Credit Bubble report http://tinyurl.com/e2bay
Broad money supply (M3) jumped $32.4 billion to a record $9.91 Trillion (week of September 5), with a noteworthy 16-week gain of $321 billion, or 10.8% annualized. Year-to-date, M3 has expanded at a 7.1% rate, with M3-less Money Funds expanding at an 8.3% pace. For the week, Currency dipped $1.3 billion.
Real Estate loans have expanded at a 15.9% rate during the first 36 weeks of 2005 to $2.822 Trillion.
Aggregate MOney supply droped last week however.
With gas prices coming back down, NOW is when the bulls must make their move, and leave behind the sept/oct bugaboo
Sept 20th looms, will the FED meeting be like a goldilocks happy ending?

1 comment:

Marc R said...

Morning Steve, this Buds for you!

Pres said to help pay for this HISTORIC GULF COAST Reconstruction, he would cut OTHER programs.....so this leads credence to the Broken Window Fallacy I posted.

Gold breaking out against ALL currencies and bond yields going up could be sign markets are VERY concerned about inflation and the I's have it...that market may be sensing this reconstruction and is reacting to its potential effects on inflation,none of which would be bully for markets....cept gold.IMHO

D