Saturday, September 17, 2005

IS THE BEAR MARKET OVER?


This chart is from 2003!!!! It has gotten far worse and 2003 was a record??

"The perseverance of consumer spending over the past several years is credited with keeping the economy afloat, but it didn't come without consequence. In order to keep on living in the manner they became accustomed to during the boom years, Americans went deeply into hock.
"If there's a bubble, it's in this four-letter word: Debt," said Merrill Lynch chief North American economist Dave Rosenberg. "The U.S. economy is just awash in it."

"But rather than using such rate reductions as an opportunity to save money, consumers have, as a whole, used them as an opportunity to spend more."

IAN GORDON KWAVE EXPERT


Market bottom?
According to Dow Theory it is not. AT bottom OCT 2002 SPX PE was near 30 and Div yield 1.7% Previous Bear markets sportedsingle digit PE ratios and yields closer to 6%.

Credit expansion is the KEY, we have expanded beyond all reason, savings below zero,I feel credit CONTRACTION will not be too far off, a hard down cycle will have begun.

ALL BULLS SURE Katrina is going to cause a super bull, but with where we are in the cycle, our debt and deficit picture already at historic extremes, and now $200B or more needed of GOV spending ontop of an already stretched picture, our future is clouded.

D

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