Tuesday, September 20, 2005

TUESDAY SEPT 20th AM COMMENTS

Briefly: Militia infiltrating police in Basra, fighting with British forces! Bombings continue, US Consolate Vehicle hit with car bomb. US is losing in its Iraq Bush gambit, costs not directly being listed but near $2B a day.

Outspoken members of Bush party rebuking runaway spending, insisting on budget cuts. Calls from Dem's for reversing tax cuts or eliminating them will grow louder. What good comes from Katrina for economy?

Gold is signaling inflationary pressures building, rising 10 yr yields giving FED some room to continue to raise and they will.

Gold rising against all currencies, signalling world asset inflation. Nekeii above 13K.

The demand for credit is so great in US, interest rates are coiled TIGHT like a ticking time bomb. FED MUST continue to raise rates to help attract ever more daily debt requirements near $3 B a day.

Cost of interest payments over $300B a year to pay for debt. AS FNM struggles signal trouble for housing, IMHO so does WMT for retail....and the shallacking BBY recently took.

Rise in Gold and Silver recently has look of final push from Hedge Funds who have near exhausted their Bullish extreme with nary a rise in Silver prices up until now. Commercials resources much more vast and they are net short still.

Disruption of natural gas supplies from KAtrina could add 30% to already heady Winter heating costs, adding addt'l pressure on consumers. With historic low in savings, home equity borrowing near exhausted, what will XMAS spending look like? As Inventories and factory buildups continue in advance?

FED meeting should add greatly to market swings, mostly after the 2:15 annoucement, watch bonds and gold closely for thier reaction.

Potential exists for gold and silver to better their recent highs, but bullish sentiment is nearer a top than bottom.

Duratek

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