PERCEPTION 9/10ths OF LAW

Reports of "job growth improving" and most other data used to try and convince investors recovery is on track are pushed on the thinnest of margins and have no credability...BUT

After trips to VIX 80 and a grossly oversold freaked out market MArch 2009 may have set the lows for many years to come. The act that the Bear lows of 2002 were surpassed is one caveat, where previous bear lows were violated, not sure that has happened in 100 years of stock action....but it does point to a more SECULAR trend potential....a STAGNATION....trading range.....Deflation has helped JAPAN move lower and lower over 20 years....this is a REAL possibility as we have not come to grips with credit bubble bust.....we have bought some time.

And because timing is so critical, I don't advocate short positions....for most investors this is too risky.

The reality is economic data point to a weakening of recovery, very little growth in jobs or wages, and a weak housing market that has 1 in 4 underwater.....consumers have cut back and are increasing their savings.....since we have consumer driven economy how is that good for growth?

If indeed we are in a LONG TERM BEAR MKT....I have laid out what was present at other SECULAR BOTTOMS.......so even as the market may move higher....even as it did from 2002-2007 it ecventually made a new low in 2009. IMHO we are in cyclical BULL that may run higher......but it is my belief that we have not enterred into a LONG TERM BULL and the return to the bear when it comes will be horribly painful.....for now the bEAR CROSS has given us choppy action....I will continue to monitor the action and look for clear signs one way or another......AD lines rising to new highs cant be seen as bearish....at this point.

VIX at 22 warns volatility has not been put to rest.

D