Contrarian market commentary and economic postings.
Friday, January 07, 2011
YIELDS CONTRACTING
WHY the surge to safety? yet dull market? $ strength? bagholders are setup IMHO or consolidating the up move for yields...
2 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Happy new year Duratek and wish your business all success! Enjoyed reading your blog all last year.
Treasury markets will get very complicated. I recommend not trading it unless you manage your risk reward well. I think for all the troubles the US is in you have to remember that other "safe havens" are also in trouble.
BTW I disagree on one of your previous posts that we will see new highs. I doubt the current congress will be willing to let Bernanke do that which will require a huge dollar devaluation.
Do you want to be invested in Japanese bonds? Debt to GDP ratio >200 and still spending like no tomorrow. I know a lot of investors lost their shirts shorting Japanese bonds but at some point they will be right and the Yen will blow up. German bunds? Seems like Germany is the backstop for all the PIIGS. What will happen to German yeilds when Spain pulls a Greece?
Happy New year to you as well, thanks for kind comments, I agree with much of what you say. Yields have been coming back down, but the FED is doing much of the lifting, so we aren't seeing a free market working here.
Safe may be in the eye of the holder? no place to hide IMHO....I am leaning on Lowrys data to confirm any change in buying and selling power.....hope you continue reading my blog....this will be interesting year!
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2 comments:
Happy new year Duratek and wish your business all success! Enjoyed reading your blog all last year.
Treasury markets will get very complicated. I recommend not trading it unless you manage your risk reward well. I think for all the troubles the US is in you have to remember that other "safe havens" are also in trouble.
BTW I disagree on one of your previous posts that we will see new highs. I doubt the current congress will be willing to let Bernanke do that which will require a huge dollar devaluation.
Do you want to be invested in Japanese bonds? Debt to GDP ratio >200 and still spending like no tomorrow. I know a lot of investors lost their shirts shorting Japanese bonds but at some point they will be right and the Yen will blow up. German bunds? Seems like Germany is the backstop for all the PIIGS. What will happen to German yeilds when Spain pulls a Greece?
Happy New year to you as well, thanks for kind comments, I agree with much of what you say.
Yields have been coming back down, but the FED is doing much of the lifting, so we aren't seeing a free market working here.
Safe may be in the eye of the holder? no place to hide IMHO....I am leaning on Lowrys data to confirm any change in buying and selling power.....hope you continue reading my blog....this will be interesting year!
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