The S & P 500 now has a YIELD OF 1.99% !!!!!!!!!! If my history serves me well, the major US MKT TOP IN 2000 printed a yield of 3%. AT the MAJOR BEAR MKT LOWS in the history of the US stock market, the S and P 500 DIVIDEND yield value was closer to 5-6%. AT MArch LOWS it was below 3%. Using this metric of value as was case in 2002 a bear mkt low was not registered.
However, that didn't stop stocks from achieving a higher high by 2007. But we then slipped back into another viscious bear mkt and importantly fell BELOW the previous bear lows of 2002. And first time since 1970's fell below the 400 MONTH MA.
2 AWFUL Bears in last 10 years, and still according to past bear lows, cannot achieve similar valuations....so maybe "it's different this time".
2 Bears in 10 years, 2 BOOMS and 2 BUSTS, nd now we have lost ALL the jobs created in the prior BOOM!!!!!!! SOMETHING IS HORRIBLY WRONG!
The plan this time, but carried out even more exotically, with even more oompghh, was to lower interest rates, stimulate spending....LIQUIFY....but you can't always control WHERE IT GOES.
My contention is not to guess the next top, we know MANIAS can go further than most can figure......but I think we all know HOW THEY END!
You OWE $10, so the FED figues if you make $2 for every $1 in existance, and you do it over only a FEW MONTHS......it makes it easier to PAY OFF THE DEBT.....hence the $ devaluation efforts, forget what they say in public.
The BANKS ARE HEALTHY THEY SAY, we averted financial suicide, the crisis has abated. BUT LENDERS are afaraid to lend, borrowers afraid to borrow.....and WALL STREET, in particular the TOO BIGGER TO FAIL BANKS, will surpass thier eye popping PAY BENNIES of 2007!!!!!!!
You see all those former BANKING INSIDERS now in position in the OBAMA ADM, have told us we had to save JPM and GS etc....this is GOOD FOR AMERICA.
OUR GOV and the American people are on the hook for it all. WE GUARANTEE all the mortgages, all the DERIVITIVES all $100 TRILLION of them....where have the Banks made their money? ON THE STOCK RALLY.
BUT my dear friends, (if you let them) we are being hoodwinked! If everything was so doggone peachy, why are almost all these "EXCESS BANKING RESERVES" just sitting there?
Small business creates MAJORITY of the jobs in the US, Small BUSINESS is being SHUT OUT (lots of money would come from Regional, smaller banks also shut out from spiggot) from the lending machine.
MY MAIN fundamental contention is that how in the crap do you have a V-SHAPED RECOVERY if borrowing, lending is contracting like a muthafucker?
Businesses are closing at an alarming rate, even of job losses SLOW (report in AM) jobs aren't being create to absorb much.
One day....the Ostrich will shoot his head out of the hole and say "WTF???????" "Castles made of sand slip into the sea eventually"
LINK TO NPR.ORG STORY "SMALL BIZ GETS SQUEEZED"
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