Saturday, July 14, 2012
SAT POST. "WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET" and ODDS GAME
Go ahead and criticize others who see the REAL TREND, criticize others who might see a different reality than what a mind spoiled from CNBS it pablum where Cramer is king.....if you are CEO of that thread, do the 2 readers that go there a favor resign....go on an extended vacation..rant over.
If calling the last 2 BEAR MKTS is seen as redundant or bad, than I'm bad. I've openly criticized myself for not acting upon my own FEAR INDEX signals and buying in 2009...I never said BEAR MKTS are forever...if I sound like broken record, thank YOU, high praise with a market pattern that has shown NO upside progress in over 10 years. Put that in your latte and smoke it.
Hard to see forest for the trees in the heat of a forest fire, my own personal situation, an leaving a job I held for over 30 years DID influence me at 2009 bottom, so the very tools I had CONSTRUCTED failed to get me off the sidelines....BURN me at stake for erring on the side of caution when I had made my mind up I couldn't afford to be wrong, or lose what I had accumulated.
FAMOUS line from RR "in bear markets everybody loses, the one's who lose the least win".
GOLD was screaming buy during last 2 phases of the great BEAR, VALUE line continued to rise thru 20003....interest sensitive issue caught fire with record FED intervention at the 2003 bottom....and so did BONDS.
EXPERTS calling for $1,600 AAPL stock, and hardly an analyst callling for ANY CAUTION HERE, and one saying "worst mistake you could make is NOT being in stock market"
What I see is an economy STUCK in neutral, without gov't and FED subsudies would look entirely different and all CB'S fighting the credit crash with all they got, even as the situation worsens and there are visable DIMINISHING RETURNS...but they forge on!
If you got this far, here is http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10685 this weeks Credit Bubble report, another guy who is a broken record....that I love to read.
"Global central bankers have ensured that way too much money now chases limited global risk asset market returns (contemporary prevailing inflation). With global short-term rates pushed near zero, hundreds of billions have flooded into more speculative instruments and ventures, certainly including the global hedge fund community. "
You see, since 2000 the FED and gov't have been fighting tooth andnail the BURST CREDIT BUBBLE.......and so we remain STUCK in the up and down world....as THEY try to keep going to very thing that got us here, but problem is not as many running to trough to drink the elixr.....and their actions have PROLONGED the transition and exorcising the imblanaces THEY created.
Housing limps along, lending limps along, the STOCK MARKET had been TARGETED by the FED, and it shows it is last resort to make people FEELbetter so they spend MORE, but most recent CONSUMER SENTIMENT POLLS shows a weak 72 reading more consistant with RECESSION or worse, instead of more historic rises during recovery to 100-120 reading....who else sees this?
A 0% interest rate policy in the meanwhile has KILLED savers and again thrown the system upside down and it does not resemble anything like normal.....NO all this is to coerce YOU into the market, so assholes like Zuckerberg can cash out and become Billionaires, they don't get rich if you don't buy their paper.
Can everyone who invests make money? WHAT????? how is that, we all put money in stock market and we all make money??? REALLY how's that work?
NOOOO, the mkt is the ultimate PONZI PYRAMID SCHEME.....it stops rising when the last fool is in.....for every winner is a loser at best it balances out. THE HOUSE ALWAYS WINS.
FOR DECADES it was OK for politicians to buy stock on INSIDER INFO, but illegal and jail time followed if you did it dear citizen. IS THE SYSTEM RIGGED TO PROTECT YOU OR JOB YOU?
GUCHI ROCKS WHILE THE DOLLAR STORE FLOUNDERS?
Good luck, decide for yourself, "do you see wha I see....." ALL I can tell, tools and from those I respect that I READ and you don't.....say CAUTION is the word of the day...and BEAR is more likely than BULL.
DAMN right I can be WRONG, no one is right 100% of time, but investing, gambling, it's an ODDS GAME.....black or red?
Posted by Marc R at 8:37 AM