Price is just under the simple 50 day moving avg and has recently consolidated above the downtrend line. With the VIX not signalling fear and low summer volumes, the June lows and the July highs still stand. Stocks seem to only move from each new headline, on CHina, Euro, or JPM....or what the fed's next move may be. I don't doubt that stocks could move higher here, the lower range held again on recnt decline, but there isn't a strong conviction of buyers either seen by breadth or volume.
The next larger degree move IMHO will be down, only question in my ind is if a summer rally can unfold to new highs first